MLB History: The Top 10 Pitchers With The Best Chance To Reach 300 Wins
A few days ago, my friend and I had a debate over the HOF credentials of Fred McGriff. I said- the guy nearly had 500 Home Runs, that's gotta get him in. My friend countered back- almost, but not 500.
When the argument shifted to Mike Mussina, he stood up for him. He said how Mussina almost had 300 wins. I countered- almost, but not 300.
Touche.
I bring this up because with Mussina's retirement two years ago, it's conceivable that we won't see another 300-win pitcher in a long, long time. Jamie Moyer, the current wins leader (267), hasn't pitched since July 20th, and at 47 (he'll be 48 next month), it's tough to believe that he'll reach the coveted 300 mark.
So who are the guys with the next best shot:
Andy Pettitte
1 of 10
Pettitte is at 240 wins, and pitches on a good enough team (the Yankees) to get enough wins. But Pettitte got hurt this season, is 38-years old, and seriously contemplated retirement in the offseason. Considering he doesn't have a contract after this season either, sixty wins seems a lot more daunting. Pettitte also admitted to using steroids to aid in his recovery from elbow surgery, meaning that even if he reaches the magical 300-win plateau, it will be tainted.
Roy Halladay
2 of 10
With 169 wins, Halladay is currently fifth in the most active wins category, behind Pedro Martinez, who is not officially retired, Pettite, Tim Wakefield, and Jamie Moyer, who are all likely to retire within the next year. Halladay is clearly the best pitcher in baseball, on arguably the best team in baseball, and he's facing NL competition, so 131 wins isn't out of the question. With 21 wins this season, Halladay had his most victories since 2002. At 33 years old, it's conceivable that Halladay pitches to 40, which means 7 or 8 more seasons. Doing the math that averages out to 18.7 wins/year (if he pitches seven more seasons) or 16.4 wins/year (if he pitches eight more seasons). That's definitely attainable, but definitely difficult. Halladay has nearly 2300 IP on his arm, and has struggled with injuries in the past. If Halladay wasn't robbed of so many victories by playing in the AL East with the Toronto Blue Jays his whole career, he'd well be on his way. But his best chance now comes with the Fightin' Phils.
C.C. Sabathia
3 of 10
At 30 years old, Sabathia is three years younger than Halladay, and has only 12 less wins (157 total). Like Halladay, he pitches for a great team. Unlike Halladay though, Sabathia pitches in the AL, which means facing the DH and not the pitcher every time through the line-up. But Sabathia may have a better shot than Halladay to reach it, even with that disadvantage. As long as Sabathia can stay healthy, he'll have a good shot to reach 300. But Sabathia is a very big guy, and guys his size tend to break down quicker than thinner guys. Still, he's won 76 games in the last four seasons alone, and had his first 20-win season this year.
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Roy Oswalt
4 of 10
It isn't too likely Oswalt will reach the 300 win-plateau, but he now pitches for a great team, and is a fierce competitor. With 150 wins already, Oswalt- at 33, is in a similar situation to that of teammate Roy Halladay. But Halladay has 19 wins more than Oswalt, and is simply a better pitcher than Oswalt. Plus Oswalt has struggled with injuries throughout his career, so it's unlikely that he'd be able to pitch enough to have a realistic shot at 300.
Johan Santana
5 of 10
At age 31, Johan has 133 wins. But he's struggled with injuries for the past two seasons, and plays on a terrible team (sorry, but they're more like the New York Mess). Neither the Mets, nor the Twins, had the offense to consistently support him. He's only won twenty games once, and hasn't had more than sixteen in the past four seasons. Johan will go down as one of the best pitchers of this era, but certainly not the winning-est.
Tim Lincecum
6 of 10
At 26 years old, "Tiny Tim" has 2 Cy Young's, one of the best postseason debuts of all time, and a fantastic 56-27 career win/loss record under his belt. But again, do the math. To even get to 131 wins by age 31 (where Johan currently is), Lincecum would have to win 75 games over the next 5 seasons.That only accounts to 15 wins per season, which is definitely attainable, but remember, Lincecum has won only 31 games the last two seasons, plays on a team with a terrible offense, has never won more than 18 games in his career, and watched his ERA skyrocket nearly a run from last year alone. He'll have to really pick up the wins pace and hope the Giants can solidify their offense if he wants any chance at 300.
Jon Lester
7 of 10
Lester, at 26, is the same age as Lincecum. He has 5 more wins to his credit (61), and plays on a team with a much better offense (the Boston Red Sox). But he also has to pitch in the AL East, which is brutal for any pitcher. He won a career-high 19 games this season, and seems to be getting better every year. But the Red Sox have a shaky bullpen, and an offense that really struggled with injuries this season. Still, Lester will be able to get bailed out by an offense lead by Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, and Kevin Youkilis on some of his tougher nights.
Yovani Gallardo
8 of 10
With 36 wins at age 24, Gallardo is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He pitches on a team with a good offense (the Brewers), and in a terrible division (the NL Central). But the Brewers, despite their strong offense, feature a shaky bullpen and shoddy defense. While he's looked dominant at times, he's been inconsistent throughout his career, and must stay healthy and maintain his consistency for a shot at 300.
(King) Felix Hernandez
9 of 10
At age 24, he already has 71 wins, putting him way ahead of many of the other promising young pitchers on this list. But Hernandez has a few issues. Despite his young age, he's already pitched over 1150 innings. He also pitches in the AL for one of the worst teams in baseball- the Seattle Mariners. This season, Hernandez, a leading candidate for the Cy Young, threw 232 strikeouts with a 2.27 ERA- all career-bests- and still only went 13-12. The Mariners offense is anemic...and I'm being polite with that description. Ichiro is the only bat in that line-up that legitimately scares the competition, even though he will be 37 by the end of the month and is not a power threat. Felix will need the Mariners to make some off season moves to address the offense (and surprisingly below average fielding for that matter) to have any shot.
Trevor Cahill
10 of 10
The final guy on this list is definitely the one that surprises the most people. One of the best pitchers nobody's heard of, Cahill is the next star pitcher to come through the Athletics system. At only 22 years old, Cahill already has 28 wins, including a fantastic 18-8 campaign with a 2.97 ERA. That's very impressive when you realize how little help he got from the Oakland offense. But Cahill isn't a dominant pitcher in terms of strike-outs, and pitches to contact, which means he has to rely on his defense a lot. He's also allowed 48 homers over the last two seasons, meaning that he's prone to giving up the long ball. But Cahill is very young, and very talented, and has had a good start to his career.
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