NLCS 2010: Five Keys To a San Francisco Giants Upset
The San Francisco Giants beat the Atlanta Braves Monday night to advance to its first National League Championship Series since 2002. Outfielder Cody Ross had two RBI, including the game-winning single in the seventh inning.
The Giants have to be thrilled to have ousted Atlanta, having proved along the way that their excellent pitching staff is in top form this October. Now, however, Bruce Bochy's crew must turn to take on a much fiercer offense and more worthy opponent than the depleted Braves: Charlie Manuel's Philadelphia Phillies.
Philadelphia has won its division four straight times and are two-time defending National League champions. They have finished first or second in the NL in runs scored in all four of those seasons. To that potent resume, they added two right-handed aces for their starting pitching rotation this season-Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt.
For the Giants to beat Philadelphia and have a chance to end their 52-year championship drought, much will need to go right. Specifically, here are five things the Giants need to do to win the NLCS.
1. Bring Pat Burrell off the Bench
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Bochy has made it clear throughout the stretch drive that he does not trust Burrell's infamously shaky glove in left field. Bochy removed Burrell from each game of the NLDS with at least nine defensive outs left.
The stratagem of hiding Burrell and his miserable defense has worked thus far, but the nature of the Giants' next opponent dictates a switch. Bochy should start the likes of Aaron Rowand and Nate Schierholtz, holding Burrell in reserve for opportunities to pinch hit.
Several advantages make this a smart potential move. For one thing, the Phillies' pitching staff is not constructed well for the task of getting out good hitters late in games. Right-handers Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson continue to anchor the relief corps but are inconsistent and often wild. Meanwhile, the Phils' starting staff is as tough as any in the postseason, featuring Halladay, Oswalt and southpaw Cole Hamels. If Burrell's bat is to be of maximum value to the Giants, he should be allowed to wield it late in games, with weaker hurlers on the mound.
Second, because of the relative quality of Schierholtz and company with the leather in left, Burrell's absence early in game could help keep the Phillies off the board early. Because early leads give Manuel the flexibility to stay with his starters longer, allowing runs early is a luxury San Francisco can ill afford.
Thirdly, the Giants have depth with which to work. Bochy can deploy former center fielder Rowand, Schierholtz or (in an emergency) Mike Fontenot to left field, depending upon pitching match-ups or preference. Because of that flexibility, Bochy can also remove Burrell once he makes his offensive contributions, subbing in whomever he had not used in the starting lineup.
Finally, moving Burrell to the bench gives Bochy a better chance to leverage his slugging outfielder. Burrell bats fifth in the Giants order most of the time, but in a bench role, he could come into any of five different spots thanks (again) to San Francisco's depth. The small uptick in offensive potential and the more considerable defensive upgrade could help the Giants upend Philadelphia.
2. Employ a Three-Man Rotation
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Madison Bumgarner looked great against Atlanta Monday night, firing six innings of two-run ball. The Braves could not get to him, though they hung in and had the lead through six frames,
Bumgarner pitched well enough to earn that praise, but not well enough to merit an NLCS start. The Giants will have a tough enough time matching up with Philadelphia's three aces, at least one of whom (Halladay) seems sure to start on three days' rest. To match those three, San Francisco needs the elite performances they got from Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez in the NLDS.
Meanwhile, a move of Bumgarner to the Giants bullpen would give them yet another lefty to contend with the predominantly left-handed boppers in the Phillies lineup. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez are each tough outs that Bumgarner is well-suited to get. He could be a key cog in the Giant's efforts: It just means accepting an ostensible demotion.
3. Don't Stop Believin
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Lidge and Madson lead a bullpen for the Phillies that finished with a pedestrian 4.02 ERA and often lacked command: Phils relief pitchers had 178 walks, just 60 fewer than a starting rotation that pitched more than 600 more innings.
Therefore, though the Giants may fall behind early in some games during this Series, they are really out of it only if they allow those games to get too far out of hand. If the deficit is a run or two entering the eighth inning, the Giants' superior bullpen gives them a chance to win.
4. Plate Approach
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Statistically, if the Giants want to get to the Phillies' top hurlers, they had better do it early: The Philadelphia staff threw a higher percentage of first-pitch strikes this year than all but two big-league teams. Moreover, they allowed just a .615 opposing OPS after 0-1 counts. Once they get ahead, it's curtains.
Fortunately for San Francisco, their best hitters are also their most aggressive--at least in theory. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval, after a sophomore slump season, must kick it into gear for the Baymen to win this Series, and he is the perfect fit to his opponents: He swings at over 57 percent of all pitches, about 12 percentage points more than the league average.
If Sandoval comes through, this could be a battle. If his bat remains silent, it could be a sweep.
5. Play Small Ball Smartly
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The Giants' very pitching-oriented self-image leads them to try a lot of fundamentalist "small ball" tactics, and they're quite good at it: Only three teams in baseball had a better productive outs percentage than San Francisco this year.
To beat the Phillies, though, they will need to find thunder somewhere. Bringing Burrell off the bench could be step one in that direction, allowing Bochy to send up the slugger in lieu of a player with whom he might have felt obligated to bunt. The stolen base, which San Francisco employed liberally against Atlanta's backstop Brian McCann, could help them get those extra bases without giving up outs, and that could go a long way toward giving the Giants their first pennant in nearly a decade.
