NLCS 2010 Predictions: Why the Philadelphia Phillies Will Beat the SF Giants
I can't tell you how much this pains me to say this being a diehard Giants fan. But a noble journalist puts his allegiances aside.
Here is an in-depth comparison of two teams, in amazing detail and quality (HD detail and quality). The main determinant in the series, I believe, will be the powerful offense of the Phils...and the three-runs-is-a-chore offense of the Giants.
Offense
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The Giants scored 11 runs in four games to beat the Atlanta Braves 3 games to 1. Eleven runs won't do it against the Phils.
The Phillies scored 13 runs in three games in their sweep of the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are a better team than the Braves. The regular season? The Phillies ranked seventh in the Majors with 772 runs. The Giants? 697.
The one thing the Giants do have going for them is the Phillies only hit .212 against the Reds. But c'mon, this team is electric offensively and I don't see them continuing to hit this way even with the strong pitching of the Giants. And I don't see the Giants doing much against the Phillies own three-headed monster of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels.
Advantage: Phillies
Starting Pitching
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The Phillies and the Giants have the two best 1-2-3 rotations in baseball. Period. Unfortunately for the Giants, the Phillies top three are slightly better as a whole.
Tim Lincecum versus Roy Halladay should be a matchup for the ages. Lincecum pitched a shutout against the Braves, giving up two hits and striking out 14. Halladay, not to be outdone, decided to pitch the second no-hitter in playoff history against the Reds. If the Giants don't come out of their offensive shell, they won't have a chance against Halladay.
I do like Matt Cain going up against Roy Oswalt. Cain only gave up one unearned run against the Braves in 6 2/3 innings Friday, only to watch the Giants bullpen, ahem Sergio Romo, implode. Cain has been stellar all season long. Oswalt has been stellar with the Phillies, but he had a rough outing against the Reds and I like Cain overall.
The edge goes to the Phillies because I feel Cole Hamels is a more consistent starter than Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez has indeed had his best season of his young career this year, but the problem with him is he is either unhittable or will implode, there is no middle ground. Hamels threw a shutout against the Reds for the sweep. And I see the Phillies lineup giving Sanchez far more trouble than the Braves did.
Advantage: Phillies
Defense
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Although the Giants had 10 less errors than the Phillies in the regular season, I like the Phillies defense here. They are solid across the board. I like Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth better than Pat Burrell, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross collectively (if Jose Guillen plays right field over Ross I like the Phillies even more). Although Torres can fly.
In the infield, I would say Aubrey Huff and Freddy Sanchez get a leg up on Ryan Howard and Chase Utley respectively. Huff apparently was supposed to be a horrible first baseman coming into San Francisco. He had three errors all season. Sanchez is always reliable. But I worry about the Giants on the left side of the infield. Juan Uribe has done a tremendous job at short this season, but you can't take him over Jimmy Rollins. And Pablo Sandoval at third base worries me more than anything. He had 13 errors this season, and probably 12 of those were on throws. If he doesn't airmail a ball this series I would be shocked. Mike Fontenot, his backup, is a better option but I still like Placido Polanco better here.
In the catching department, ROY-contender Buster Posey gets the thumbs up over Carlos Ruiz. They both call great games, they both have solid fielding percentages, but Ruiz has thrown out 20-of-70 baserunners; Posey has thrown out 23 in just 62 chances. He has an absolute gun.
Advantage: Phillies
Bullpen
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The Giants were second in bullpen ERA this season with a 2.99 ERA. They were virtually unhittable at the end of the season. The Phillies had a 4.02 bullpen ERA. The Giants bullpen was so good reliever Santiago Casilla was an afterthought in San Francisco: he had a 1.95 ERA in 52 games this year. Why was he an afterthought? Giants GM Brian Sabean picked up lefty Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez midseason for one. Lopez had a 1.42 ERA in 27 games with the Giants. Ramirez: a 0.67 ERA (two runs in 27 innings) and .137 average against. Not to mention setup man Sergio Romo (2.18 ERA, 70 Ks in 62 innings pitched) and one of the best closers in baseball, Brian Wilson, who tied a franchise record this year with 48 saves.
Romo struggled against the Braves in his two appearances. So manager Bruce Bochy simply went with Casilla and Lopez in the eighth of a 3-2 ballgame Monday. Casilla struck out Derek Lee, gave up a hit to Brian McCann, then a groundout to Alex Gonzalez. Lopez came in and promptly struck out Jason Heyward for the third out of the inning. Bochy could pick his relievers using Eeny Meeny Miny Mo and still come out on top.
Advantage: Giants
Team Speed
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The Phillies have four guys who stole in double figures this year, including Jimmy Rollins with 34 swipes. The Giants have Andres Torres with 26 and that's about it. Sure, steals don't always determine a team's speed on the basepaths, but I don't see self-proclaimed "water buffaloes" Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell scaring the Philly outfielders with their blazing speed. The Phillies outstole the Giants 108 to 55 this season. The departed Bengie Molina is thankfully gone for the Giants: he was so slow even Pablo Sandoval was like, "Dude, you're really outta shape." Bengie, Tony Gwynn called, he wants his fat back.
Advantage: Phillies
Manager
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Charlie Manuel vs. Bruce Bochy, mano y mano, it's on, let the fireworks begin, when these two lock horns...ok, it's really not that interesting. They're managers, they sit on the bench, Manuel talks to his pitching coaches, Bochy chews tobacco, etc etc. But just because it's not interesting doesn't mean it's not important (I think I heard that from my calculus teacher in college or something).
Manuel has coached nine seasons and has led the Phils to the World Series the last two seasons, coming away with one ring and one continuous nightmare of Hideki Matsui. Bruce Bochy has been around since 1995, when the Cleveland Indians were actually good (now THAT was a long time ago). He's won one NL pennant, in 1998 with the Padres.
Looking at their resumes, I fully understand if you cuss my name and spit tobacco at the computer screen when you read this:
Advantage: Giants
Yep, you heard it hear first folks (yes, I know "here" is spelled wrong). Bruce Bochy is a better manager than Charlie Manuel...well, atleast this season. Bochy has done the most with the least talent this season. He has had to piece together castaways (Burrell), veterans who weren't supposed to be good anymore (Huff), a 32-year-old center fielder in Torres, a 33-year-old center fielder in Aaron Rowand (who has apparently lost everything in one year's time), a Barry Zito (yep, he still wasn't worth $126 million), and a plethora of midseason bit players.
Charlie Manuel gets Roy Halladay to start the season, a blistering offense (when healthy), and, for good measure, Roy Oswalt at the trade deadline. He's still a great manager, but Bochy and his "Bochy Ball" gets my vote for 2010. Plus, he looks like he could be in a Western.
Crowd Factor
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The Phillies were second in attendance this season only to the Yankees. They have home field advantage. And their fans are really loud and obnoxious. San Francisco ranked ninth in attendance despite a smaller market ( I wonder, do they count boats and canoes out in McCovey Cove?). And their fans, though as a whole not as uncontrollably exuberant, rank right up there in terms of game knowledge and team spirit.
It's a close one, but I have to give it to the Phils because of their home field advantage and the fact that I'm pretty sure Pablo Sandoval will eat a Philly Cheesesteak before every game in Philly.
Advantage: Phillies
Team Chemistry
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The Phillies have had the same core offensively for years now, with Utley, Howard, Rollins, Victorino, and Ruiz. They no doubt have strong chemistry.
But the Giants, with a variety of players coming from all angles, have come together remarkably. The team has gelled when so much stood in the way (not knowing each other, Torres and Posey emerging into the starting lineup, the starting rotation having a roller coaster of a season, the Milton Bradley-esque Jose Guillen joining the fold, etc.).
And it has seemingly been effortless. Huff has been a Godsend not only for his bat but his goofball attitude as well. He's regularly chatting it up with fellow "water buffalo" Pat Burrell and has added a "looseness"to the Giants clubhouse that has made everyone who has joined the team feel welcome (I saw a video on the Internet of Huff swearing belligerently and drinking a beer after a game while he talked to reporters-if that doesn't amuse the clubhouse, I don't know what will).
Advantage: Giants
