2010 MLB Playoff Predictions: Why the Philadelphia Phillies Will Beat the Reds
As the Atlanta Braves fought for the right to play into the second phase of the season on Sunday, the Philadelphia Phillies started Cole Hamels against Atlanta’s Tim Hudson.
And then after Hamels came Roy Oswalt.
And then after Oswalt came …
And so it was for the Phillies on the final day of the regular season, their National League East title wrapped up long ago.
No Philadelphia pitcher worked longer than Hamels’ two innings, with manager Charlie Manuel using Game 162 as a “staff” day to get eight different pitchers some work.
For Atlanta, this game was all about survival.
The Braves knew their only hope to give manager Bobby Cox one more postseason before he rides off into retirement was to outlast the San Diego Padres and, potentially, the San Francisco Giants for the Wild Card.
But the Braves beat the Phillies 8-7 behind a four-out save from Billy Wagner, and the Giants beat the Padres out west to claim the division and give Atlanta the Wild Card.
There would be no Game 163, or Game 164 for that matter, something that’s never happened in history but would have happened had the Padres won.
As all the little guys sweated it out, the Goliath in Philly gave Chase Utley and Ryan Howard three at-bats apiece and then pulled them, winning not necessary.
The day was more about preparation and, when needed, rest to get ready for this week’s showdown with the Cincinnati Reds in the NLDS.
In fact, it’s felt that way with these Phillies for a while now. Not only do the Phillies look like a tough team to beat, they also look like the early favorite to represent the National League in the World Series for a third consecutive year.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the Phillies just may be able to win the NL pennant, beginning with their matchup against the Reds.
NLDS—Philadelphia Phillies Vs. Cincinnati Reds
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The Reds won the NL Central by five games and haven’t been to the playoffs since 1995.
That trip lasted to the NLCS.
This one doesn’t appear to be so giving, not against a Phillies team that seems superior in almost every way.
We can forget about the starting rotations, and that’s not Cincinnati’s fault.
It’s just that nobody in the entire sport is going to roll out a top three that’s better than Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt.
Reds manager Dusty Baker will counter with some troika out of Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Travis Wood, Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez.
Not only do the Phillies have the advantage in the rotation, but they also have the better bullpen, which is a necessity if you are going to win a title.
Cincinnati will roll out Nick Masset and Arthur Rhodes in front of closer Francisco Cordero, and Aroldis Chapman is going to cause some headaches in the later innings with his triple-digit fastball.
Although Rhodes has had a productive season and Chapman can strike out anybody if he wants to, the Reds still can’t offer the depth that Philly can. Cordero has 40 saves but only 59 strikeouts in more than 72 innings.
Philly, on the other hand, can counter with the power stuff of J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson before it gets to closer Brad Lidge, who has recorded 52 strikeouts in 45.2 innings.
Madson is the best-kept secret in that Philly bullpen, as his changeup may be just as good as his mid-90s fastball and allows him to get left-handed hitters out as well as the righties.
If the Reds are going to win this series, they are going to have to do it by scoring a lot of runs.
The good news is that Cincinnati led the league in runs this year.
It’s been an MVP-caliber season from Joey Votto surrounded with solid production from Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Jay Bruce, and others.
The bad news is that the Phillies are second in the league in runs and can offer a more experienced package of hitters beginning with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jayson Werth.
Then Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Placido Polanco, and Carlos Ruiz wait behind them.
This series is going to come down to depth because, look, the Reds aren’t going to be scoring six runs per game. Not against a pitching staff like Philadelphia’s.
If the Reds want a chance to win the series, Chapman will have to be nails against Utley and Howard out of the bullpen, and somebody other than Votto will have to contribute some big hits so they can get into Philly’s bullpen earlier than normal.
If the Reds can’t do that, then the Phillies may make this a brief three-game series and prepare for the next round.
NLCS—Philadelphia Phillies Vs. San Francisco Giants
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The other pairing in the National League consists of the San Francisco Giants and the Atlanta Braves.
Let’s look at the Giants first in the event that they make it past Atlanta and into the NLCS.
The Giants stand on more equal ground with the Phillies when it comes to starting pitching.
Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are good enough to beat anybody, and then Bruce Bochy has options with this third starter.
He can go with Barry Zito, who posted a 4.15 ERA in almost 200 innings this year, or he can go with Jonathan Sanchez, who has better stuff than Zito and had a 3.07 ERA while pitching six fewer innings than Zito.
Whatever the Giants decide to do, they will have to get a great night from their starting pitchers and hope to scrape a couple of runs off the Phillies in order to win.
Brian Wilson holds down the back of the bullpen for the Giants, but it’s all about what offense shows up for the Giants, which is the problem.
The Phillies have exceptional pitching and an exceptional lineup.
The Giants have great arms but ranked ninth in the league in runs.
San Francisco’s best hitter is rookie catcher Buster Posey.
In 406 at-bats this year, Posey is hitting .305 with 18 home runs and a .357 OBP. Posey has been locked in a daily battle with Atlanta’s Jason Heyward for NL Rookie of the Year and has the talent to carry the Giants offense.
The problem is, no one guy can carry an entire offense in October. Others are going to have to hit if the Giants are going to win. Aubrey Huff had a standout year for San Francisco, and Juan Uribe can bring a little pop to the table.
But is that going to get it done against Philadelphia?
Tough to say yes with confidence.
For San Francisco to pull the upset, they will have to take at least one of the first two games in Philadelphia behind Lincecum and Cain and then return home to San Francisco for three games and hope its gracious ballpark stifles Philadelphia’s bats and makes this series one strictly about the arms.
If that happens, the Giants have a chance. A small chance.
But the one thing San Francisco can’t do is trade run for run with the Phillies.
So we’re saying the onus falls largely on Tim Lincecum’s slender frame to get the Giants off on the right track?
Yes, that’s exactly what we’re saying.
And that’s nothing new for Lincecum.
NLCS—Philadelphia Phillies Vs. Atlanta Braves
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This is the series to watch if you’re looking for a team that could prevent the Phillies from heading to the World Series, regardless of the fact that the Braves finished six games behind the Phillies in the NL East.
With Philadelphia and Atlanta both in the same division, this series isn’t about out-managing the other or anything like that. Both teams have seen enough of each other this summer that there’s nothing to hide.
Simply roll the ball out and let’s go.
If you’re the Braves, that’s a reason to be excited.
The Braves have enough talent to win this series if they play their best ball. They just don’t have as much room for error as a team like Philadelphia does.
A starting rotation that leads with Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe is a starting rotation that has the ability to win.
Can Hudson and Lowe do the things that Philadelphia’s trio can do? Probably not.
But can Hudson or Lowe throw seven innings of one-run ball on any given night? Absolutely.
That’s all it could take to get things rolling in Atlanta’s direction.
If the Braves could split the opening two games on the road, they return home where they went 56-25 during the regular season and would be supported by a raucous crowd waiting to do all it can to see Bobby Cox go out a champion.
The Phillies generally have one of the better home crowds in all of baseball, but I can’t imagine any stadium will be more fired up this postseason than Turner Field in Atlanta.
The Braves will have to patch together some late-inning magic out of the bullpen, but the arms to win are there.
The question is what type of offense is going to show up?
Will it be the one where Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, and Derek Lee pound mistakes, or will it be the one where Omar Infante gets on base and then goes nowhere?
Losing Chipper Jones and Martin Prado hurts the Braves, for sure, but there’s still enough firepower in this lineup to make a run.
Heyward has to have a huge October. Has to. He’s the Braves' best player, and they will need him to play like it.
For me, it comes down to McCann and Lee.
What is Bobby Cox going to get from them?
If we are just looking on paper, it’s clear to see how the Phillies could reach the World Series again and win it.
They are the most complete team in all of baseball, not just the NL.
But as we know, nothing’s won on paper.
How will the Phillies respond should Joey Votto homer off Halladay, Chapman throw 104 mph in the eighth inning, and the Reds take a 1-0 series lead?
How will the Phillies feel if Tim Lincecum struts into Philly and throws a complete game shutout to beat Halladay in Game 1 of the NLCS with three games looming in San Francisco?
How will the Phillies act when they head to Atlanta and face an inspired team that’s playing for its Hall of Fame manager with a vintage '90s Braves crowd behind them?
We just don’t know, and that’s precisely why we love October.
Follow Teddy Mitrosilis on Twitter. You can reach him at tm4000@yahoo.com.
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