Byrd Move Is A Smart One

The Red Sox made a waiver wire deal Tuesday that could have a major impact on the divisional race and the postseason. They acquired veteran Paul Byrd from the Indians for a player to be named later, most likely a low-level prospect lacking much value. Looking at Byrd’s statistics the last few years shows nothing but pedestrian, even below average numbers. The last three years his ERA’s have been 4.88, 4.59 and 4.53, a ton of hits allowed, few walks and few strikeouts, and ERA+ right around 100. So, why am I applauding this move so much?

This is one of those transactions that is often looked back on after October concludes as an under-the-radar move that pays huge, season-changing dividends. Paul Byrd can fit that bill in 2008 for the Red Sox.

Byrd’s numbers don’t produce a ton of excitement, but digging deeper shows Byrd may be hitting his stride just in time for a pennant race. In the first half, the wily veteran struggled to a tune of a 5.47 ERA, 121 H in 102 IP and 23 homers allowed. Not even the double windup was fooling the opposing hitters in what has been a supremely disappointing campaign in Cleveland this season (no need to remind me of my World Series pick or anything). Since the Break, though, Byrd has worked his magic: 1.24 ERA, 25 H in 29 IP and 0 homers allowed in four games started. These efforts have come at the hands of above average offensive teams:

7/21 @ LAA: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (okay, maybe a little lucky, but he beat the Angels)
7/28 vs. DET: 7.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (much improved)
8/2 @ MIN: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K (solid outing against a good team especially at home)
8/9 @ TOR: 9 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (his best effort of the season)

It appears Epstein pulled the trigger on Byrd at the right time, in the middle of a hot streak. It surprises me a team as pitching thin as the Yankees weren’t able to acquire Byrd for the back end of their struggling rotation, especially because they’ve been linked with Byrd all season. The Red Sox lack of certainty in their back end with Buchholz struggling mightily and looking like he needs another stint in Pawtucket, with Charlie Zink unimpressive in his first, and maybe lone, start, and Tim Wakefield on the DL for who-knows-how-long. Acquiring Byrd (he’ll start Friday) provides needed stability.

It also allows the Red Sox to consider moving Buchholz to the bullpen, an area where another capable and live arm certainly would not hurt. I would be against this idea simply because Clay’s problems are more mechanical and mental than anything, and a move to the pen could turn into a complete disaster and sidetrack the young pitcher from his development as a starter.

It’s going to be difficult to imagine Paul Byrd getting a start in the postseason. If they win the Wild Card and are forced to play the Angels, there is no chance of it. If they win the division and advance to the ALCS, Byrd may be a candidate for a Game 4 start (or however the rotation shakes out following the division series) depending on the health of Wakefield. Last postseason, Byrd toppled the Yankees in the Indians clinching game at Yankee Stadium for the DS and also defeated Boston in a Game 4 win in Cleveland. Byrd also picked up a victory for the Angels in the 2005 ALCS. Another option is never a bad thing.

Byrd is not much more than a fifth starter for the Red Sox down the stretch. But with the well-documented struggles of Buchholz and the question marks of Colon and Wakefield, adding Byrd is a classic underrated move that has defined the Theo Epstein era, and one that could make a profound difference in a positive manner down the stretch and into October.