MLB Trade Rumors: Five Top-Flight Pitchers On Trade Market This Winter
For several years now, it has been Major League Baseball tradition that cash-strapped teams shop one or more of their best players during the annual Winter Meetings. Lately, the biggest deals have been for elite pitchers: The Oakland Athletics traded Dan Haren to the Arizona Diamondbacks in December 2007--a deal that included current stars in pitcher Brett Anderson and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez--and the dominoes have fallen each winter since.
Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are three other big names that have moved over recent offseasons, and it seems only logical to believe that someone of that general caliber will move this year.
Who could be the biggest catches? There are no fewer than five legitimate trade candidates with a chance to make a long-term impact in a new home. Here they are:
5. Kenshin Kawakami- Atlanta Braves
1 of 5
Kawakami is the sensible choice when Atlanta inevitably looks to deal one of its starters this winter. He makes significantly less next season than Derek Lowe, the only other would-be candidate. The Braves' other power arms are out of Kawakami's league, leaving no room for the 35 year-old.
Nothing about Kawakami jumps off the page, for either scouts or statisticians. He does not throw especially hard, have a devastating breaking pitch or exceptional control. Instead, he relies on a four-pitch mix intended to induce weak contact.
As a result, Kawakami neither strikes out nor walks many batters. Although he has managed just 6.06 strikeouts per nine innings in his two big league seasons, he has issued only 3.29 walks per nine frames. He allows a home runs roughly once every ten innings. None of these numbers are exceptional in any way; all are acceptable, though, from a back-of-the-rotation starting hurler.
4. James Shields- Tampa Bay Rays
2 of 5
It's funny how much a little bad luck can swing a baseball career.
Prior to the 2008 season, the (then-Devil) Rays had very little in which to take pride. The team was miserable in 2007, as it had been for literally the entire history of the franchise. Only two things Tampa did all offseason drew any real positive attention:
1. They changed their uniforms, and rid themselves of the Devil--in their name, that is.
In 2008, the team went to the World Series, largely on the strength of Shields' 2. On January 23, they signed Shields to a four-year extension, with club options for 2012-14.
The deal was brilliant, most observers thought. Shields, after all, had won 12 games and posted a 3.85 ERA on that 96-loss Devil Ray team in 2007. In addition, he had walked just one batter every six innings, and worked 215 innings in total.
In 2008, the team would reach the World Series, largely on the strength of its very deep pitching staff. Shields led the way, winning a franchise record-tying 14 games and pitching 215 innings--again.
By 2009, Tampa Bay had established an impressive pattern. Not only did they consistently send five good pitchers to the mound each season, but they managed to do so by filling in one rotation spot per season with a product of their rich minor league system. So it was that the team traded both Jason Hammel and Edwin Jackson after the 2008 season, to accommodate Jeff Niemann and David Price.
This season, it has been top prospect Jeremy Hellickson who has proven himself ready for the big leagues. By the start of next season, Tampa will need to either trade one of its current five starters or relegate one of them to the bullpen.
Enter Shields again. This season, despite a spike of over 1.50 strikeouts per nine innings and no concomitant rise in walks, Shields' 4.98 ERA looks ugly. He has surrendered hits at an unlikely rate, given the strength of the Tampa defense in general. Home runs have also been a problem, and both of these factors suggest he's been quite unlucky.
Monetary considerations may cause Tampa GM Andrew Friedman to try trading Matt Garza (read on) instead of Shields. If it is Shields whom the Rays look to move, however, the big right-hander should have plenty of suitors.
3. Ricky Nolasco- Florida Marlins
3 of 5
On the other side of Florida, the Marlins have another starter who should stir interest if the team tries to trade him this winter. Florida has said it would prefer to extend Nolasco, who could be a second ace behind Josh Johnson if things break right. But Nolasco will be arbitration-eligible this winter for the third time--with one more to go, as he was a Super Two player--and may not be able to reach agreement with the Fish on a long-term deal.
If that's the case, given the team's lack of potential to contend in 2011, GM Larry Beinfest may try to trade Nolasco for pitching that Florida can more readily control.
If such a deal were to occur, it would be a coup for the team on the receiving end. Nolasco has battled high hit and home run rates during his career (partially a product of Florida's generally miserable defense), but his fielder-independent numbers are stellar: 4.44 strikeouts for every walk since the start of 2008.
Over the past two seasons, Nolasco's FIP (a stat that estimates a pitcher's ERA based only on walks, strikeouts and home run rate) is 3.60. His ERA is a ghastly 4.72; the disparity is, by a cavernous margin, the worst in baseball. Nolasco is a hidden gem, and if the Marlins surrender him to even a reluctant trade partner, he may blossom into a front-line starter.
.png?w=256)
2. Matt Garza- Tampa Bay Rays
4 of 5
Assuming for a moment that Tampa Bay will not or cannot trade Shields, Garza would be the logical trade candidate. He stands to get a sturdy raise on his $3.35-million salary in what will be his second year of arbitration eligibility, given his 14 wins and 3.68 ERA for the season. Garza's no-hitter in July certainly doesn't hurt, either.
Statistically, Shields and Nolasco are both more projectable. Garza's strikeout rate has dropped this season as he has re-dedicated himself to commanding the strike zone: Unfortunately, the simultaneous drop in walks has not translated into a perfect season. His home run rate is up, and although he is known for forcing weak contact with his nasty moving fastball and sharp slider, his .268 BABIP against looks suspicious.
Still, the upside and salary expectations of Garza could make him Tampa's primary trading chip, and whoever acquired him would have a 27 year-old with about four seasons of major league experience around which to build.
1. Zack Greinke- Kansas City Royals
5 of 5
It sounds like Zack Greinke has had enough.
When the Royals began quietly shopping their ace before the July 31 trading deadline, it became apparent that Greinke must have begun intoning his displeasure with an organization that consistently trips over itself. After all, for the remainder of this season, Kansas City needs Greinke's permission to trade him, according to the four-year deal signed before last season by the Royals ace.
After 2010, Greinke's no-trade protection vanishes. At the same time, his salary shoots up: After paying him just $11 million on the first two years of the deal, Kansas City is currently on the hook for $27 million on the back half of that contract.
A year ago, despite those figures, trading Greinke would have been unimaginable. At that time, Greinke was on his way to 16 wins and a 2.16 ERA, with 242 strikeouts. WAR estimated Greinke to be worth nine extra wins for Kansas City last season: Greinke appeared in just 33 contests.
Some inevitable regression has brought Greinke back to Earth in 2010. Greinke has been more like his 2008 self, with his strikeout rate dropping back into the realm of the believable (7.29 per nine innings) and his home runs rate climbing to one every 13 innings.
Still, much of his so-called struggles this year have really been manifestations of bad luck: he and his bullpen have stranded just 66.8 percent of base-runners, down from nearly 80 percent last year. Incidentally, Greinke has never pitched in front of a good big-league defense, and as a result, has never had a BABIP against under .300. On a good team, in other words--one that can field and hit behind him--Greinke could still be one of the game's three best starting pitchers.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
