Hitting the Home Stretch: 10 MLB Pennant Race Matchups To Watch This Week
Boy, this season went by fast.
Seems like just yesterday that the Mariners were gearing up to take the league by storm with lights-out pitching and defense, and the Padres were preparing to field offers for Adrian Gonzalez. Those were the days.
Now, just three weeks away from game No. 162, much of the playoff picture looks clear. The Rays, Yankees, and Rangers all seem safe bets to play into October. The Twins' lead, while far from secure, would likely withstand a White Sox winning streak, and barring collapse, the Reds should be able to maintain their edge over the scuffling Cardinals.
But there are still questions. The Giants and Padres are tied in the NL West with the Rockies just 1.5 games back. The Phillies have a game on the Braves in the NL East, and Atlanta, in turn, has a single-game lead over San Francisco and San Diego for the Wild Card—at most three of those teams can make the playoffs.
In this slideshow are this week's top 10 series to watch, based on intrigue and potential magnitude of impact.
Here's to another week of great baseball!
No. 10: Giants @ Brewers
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The Intrigue
The Giants are tied with the Padres for first in the NL West and less than two games out of the wild-card race, so they could be playing anyone and still be a big series. Also, Friday's matchup (Tim Lincecum and Yovani Gallardo) could make for an epic pitcher's duel.
Why It Matters
Did you miss the part where they're tied for first? Forget drama or emotions, this is just basic math.
Likely Matchups
Friday: Randy Wolf (11-11, 4.53) vs. Madison Bumgarner (9-9, 5.51); Saturday: Yovani Gallardo (12-7, 3.64) vs. Tim Lincecum (14-9, 3.60); Sunday: Chris Naverson (11-7, 5.20) vs. Barry Zito (8-12, 4.14).
No. 9: Tigers @ White Sox
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The Intrigue
Last year, the Tigers' late-season collapse in the face of a surging Twins team cost them a playoff spot. This series could make the difference between a second straight victory for the Twins or another comeback champion in the AL Central.
Why It Matters
Chicago is entering the Week 6 games behind Minnesota in the division. If the White Sox are still in the race by Friday, they won't be able to afford to drop this series.
Likely Matchups
Friday: Armando Galarraga (4-5, 3.89) vs. Edwin Jackson (9-11, 4.57); Saturday: Max Scherzer (10-10, 3.60) vs. Freddy Garcia (11-6, 4.88); Sunday: Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.53) vs. John Danks (13-10, 3.54).
No. 8: Indians @ Royals
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The Intrigue
The AL Central is the only division in baseball with two teams who are mathematically eliminated from the pennant race. But there's still one thing left to play for: avoiding last place.
Why It Matters
It doesn't, except that both teams have frustrated fanbases desperate for some good news.
Likely Matchups
Friday: Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 2.17) vs. Kyle Davies (8-9, 4.96); Saturday: Mitch Talbot (9-12, 4.58) vs. Sean O'Sullivan (2-5, 5.83); Sunday: Josh Tomlin (3-3, 4.18) vs. Luke Hochevar (5-4, 5.11).
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No. 7: Rockies @ Dodgers
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The Intrigue
The Rockies have won 10 straight to pull within a game and a half of the Giants and Padres. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are 10 games out, but have shown a remarkable inability to overestimate their chances of making it to October.
Why It Matters
Every game matters in a race this close, and if the Bums really think they can make the playoffs, they can't lose...at all. Plus, the Rockies need to prove they can win on the road (29-42).
Likely Matchups
Friday: Ubaldo Jimenez (18-6, 2.75) vs. Hiroki Kuroda (10-12, 3.32); Saturday: Jhoulys Chacin (8-9, 3.53) vs. John Ely (4-7, 4.62); Sunday: Jeff Francis (4-4, 4.57) vs. Clayton Kershaw (11-10, 2.99).
No. 6: Dodgers @ Giants
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The Intrigue:
Same as the Rockies/Dodgers series, except the Giants are higher up in the standings and get to host the Bums on their own turf.
Why It Matters
In addition to the simple arithmetic, how this matchup plays out will determine the stakes of each team's weekend series.
Likely Matchups
Tuesday: Clayton Kershaw (11-10, 2.99) vs. Barry Zito (8-12, 4.14); Wednesday: Chad Billingsley (11-9, 3.65) vs. Matt Cain (11-10, 3.19); Thursday: Ted Lilly (8-10, 3.58) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (10-8, 3.29).
No. 5: Padres @ Cardinals
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The Intrigue
The Cardinals were the unanimous preseason favorites to win the NL Central, but they now have less than a three percent chance of making the playoffs. In order to make up ground this weekend, they'll have to do it against Padres, who are tied for first in the NL West.
Why It Matters
If the Cardinals don't play near-perfect baseball this week, Albert Pujols can start making plans for October. Meanwhile, the recurring NL West drama pops up here too.
Likely Matchups
Thursday: Tim Stauffer (4-3, 1.54) vs. Jake Westbrook (7-10, 4.41); Friday: Mat Latos (14-6, 2.43) vs. Kyle Lohse (3-7, 6.85); Saturday: Cory Luebke (1-1, 3.27) vs. Jaime Garcia (13-7, 2.69); Sunday: Jon Garland (13-11, 3.52) vs. Adam Wainwright (18-10, 2.38).
No. 4: Yankees @ Rays
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The Intrigue
The two best teams in baseball face off in what may be an ALCS preview. Plus, tonight's pitching matchup (CC Sabathia vs. David Price) could be one for the ages.
Why It Natters
It really doesn't. Yes, it's a question of who wins the division and who takes the Wild Card, but both teams are virtually assured of making the playoffs. Odds are we'll see some great baseball, but this series won't change much.
Likely Matchups
Monday: CC Sabathia (19-6, 3.14) vs. David Price (17-6, 2.87); Tuesday: Ivan Nova (1-0, 2.91) vs. Matt Garza (14-8, 3.16); Wednesday: Phil Hughes (16-7, 4.26) vs. James Shields (13-12, 4.98).
No. 3: Twins @ White Sox
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The Intrigue
The best way to make up ground in a playoff race is to beat the team in front of you. The White Sox have a chance to cut the Twins' lead in half this week and take the momentum down the stretch.
Why It Matters
If the White Sox sweep, the Twins' lead gets cut to three. If Chicago can't make up that much ground—or worse, if Minnesota sweeps—the race would be all but over.
Likely Matchups
Tuesday: Francisco Liriano (13-7, 3.24) vs. John Danks (13-10, 3.54); Wednesday: Brian Duensing (8-2, 2.02) vs. Gavin Floyd (10-12, 3.91); Thursday: Carl Pavano (16-11, 3.47) vs. Mark Buehrle (12-10, 3.99).
No. 2: Nationals @ Phillies/Braves, Phillies @ Marlins, and Braves @ Mets
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The Intrigue
Unfortunately for fans, the Braves and Phillies aren't playing this week. But given the symmetry of their schedules this week—both teams host the Nationals and visits either the Mets or Marlins—the transitive property suggests that the series could have a similar effect.
Why It Matters
Atlanta and Philadelphia have been trading leads in the division for some time now. The Phillies' tenuous one-game lead will be put to the test.
Likely matchups
Monday: Yunesky Maya (0-1, 7.20) vs. Derek Lowe (12-12, 4.42) and Joe Blanton (6-6, 5.15) vs. Andrew Miller (1-1, 6.16); Tuesday: Livan Hernandez (9-11, 3.82) vs. Jair Jurrjens (7-5, 4.53) and Cole Hamels (10-10, 3.06) vs. Adalberto Mendez (1-0, 0.00); Wednesday: John Lannan (7-7, 4.69) vs. Mike Minor (3-0, 5.63) and Roy Halladay (18-10, 2.44) vs. TBA.
Friday: Tommy Hanson (9-11, 3.54) vs. Jonathon Niese (9-8, 3.85) and Jason Marquis (2-8, 6.60) vs. Kyle Kendrick (9-9, 4.85); Saturday: Tim Hudson (15-8, 2.62) vs. Dillon Gee (1-0, 1.29) and Jordan Zimmerman (0-0, 3.86) vs. Roy Oswalt (12-13, 2.94); Sunday: Derek Lowe (12-12, 4.42) vs. R.A. Dickey (10-6, 2.91) and Yunesky Maya (0-1, 7.20) vs. Joe Blanton (6-6, 5.15).
No. 1: Padres @ Rockies
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The Intrigue
Less than two games separate the division-leading yet slumping Padres from the surging third-place Rockies, and both are within three games of the Wild Card lead. The Giants, Phillies, Braves, and Cardinals will all be on high alert for blood in the water.
Why It Matters
If the Padres win the series, the boost would go beyond the mathematical; they would halt Colorado's momentum and steal the Rockies' thunder. But if the Friars can't stem the tide—or, dare I say, the Rockies pull off a sweep—we'll be primed for a pennant run showdown in the wild, wild NL West.
Likely Matchups
Monday: Cory Luebke (1-1, 3.27) vs. Jeff Francis (4-4, 4.57); Tuesday: Jon Garland (13-11, 3.52) vs. Jason Hammel (10-7, 4.34); Wednesday: Clayton Richard (12-7, 3.36) vs. Jorge De La Rosa (7-4, 4.10).
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