Jacoby Ellsbury: Can He Turn on the Jets?

Last season at this time, Red Sox fans had only experienced a quick preview of what had seemingly been deemed the long-term occupant of center field at Fenway Park. Jacoby Ellsbury spent the first week in July of last year introducing himself to Red Sox Nation and offering just enough to leave us intrigued by his raw speed and athletic ability.

Come September and into October it became apparent that Ellsbury could be a staple in center field and at the top of the order for years to come. Ellsbury would end his first abbreviated season in Boston with a .353 average, .903 OPS, and a World Series title.

Red Sox fans were so confident in what they had in Jacoby Ellsbury throughout the offseason, that they deemed Johan Santana not worth his (and others) loss and his primary competition in center, Coco Crisp, expendable.

Could you blame us? We had seen the second coming of Johnny Damon and we liked it.

After a solid start to the 2008 season that saw him hitting near .300 with a surprising display of pop with the bat and flat out dominance on the basepaths, stealing his first 16 bags before being caught, Ellsbury hit the first real slump of his career around the end of May.

In the 57 games he has played since May 25 with over 230 at bats, Ellsbury’s line looked, well, Coco-like: .235/.269/.304.

That slump saw him drop out of the top spot in the lineup and had fans wondering if Coco Crisp might actually be commanding a little more playing time once the corners were solidified with Jason Bay and J.D. Drew.

It was clear that Jacoby Ellsbury was struggling at the plate in almost every way possible. He was lost, overmatched, and searching for his swing. Dave Cameron at Fan Graphs would go so far as to call him “ice cold”:

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After a phenomenal debut last year, expectations for Ellsbury were high, but he’s run into the second year wall. His lack of power has pitchers challenging him in the strike zone, and while he’s making contact, he’s not doing anything with the ball when he puts the bat on it. As the slump has intensified, he’s tried to hack his way out of it, and that hasn’t worked much better. He’ll bounce back, but he’s got some adjustments to make, and right now, Boston can’t afford to have him making outs at the top of the lineup while they try to chase down the Rays.

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As noted in the comments by Scrappy, clearly Ellsbury’s performance last year and lack there of recently can be traced back to a near .90 point negative variance on BABIP year over year.

But Cameron’s assessment is right on. Ellsbury has looked overmatched, not unlucky. Cameron also mentions “adjustments” and he’s not the only one that keyed in on swing adjustments as a potential culprit here.

What could cause such a dynamic young player to look so pedestrian? Jim Rice gives us a pretty interesting nugget in his blog, Ask 14:

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Jacoby Ellsbury has made some changes that should help his approach at the plate. I saw him at batting practice the other day at batting practice and with each pitch, Jacoby would drop his hands so that he was starting his swing with hands below waist. Hitters need to keep their hands up so that they don’t get underneath the baseball. I think he looked at some video that has corrected this flaw and now you will see a different Jacoby!

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While Rice doesn’t give exact dates, “the other day” would likely have been at Fenway Park. In the two games Jacoby has played since the team left home to travel to Kansas City, he’s posted strong performances, going two for four and then three for four with a key three-run jack to put the game out of reach.

Given Jim Rice’s assessment of Jacoby’s swing corrections and the subsequent five for eight at the plate, are you confident that Jacoby has turned the corner?

Can he be the impact player he was down the stretch for the Red Sox last season?

Are you more or less excited about his ability now than you were coming into the season?