Schedule Dissection: Rays and Sox

Down the stretch we head in the same position, at least seemingly, that the Red Sox have been in for a while now: three games behind the first place Rays in second place, and leading the Wild Card race. The Sox had a golden opportunity Monday night to gain on both Tampa and the Yankees and lost yet another one-run road game, 4-3 to Kansas City, meaning the Sox remain three back in the East. The upstart and powerful Rays have not faded, a team constructed of top-heavy and dominant starting pitching, a steady and surprisingly shutdown bullpen, and a young, up-and-coming lineup. We all know; they’re nearly unbeatable at home, yet vulnerable on the road. Kind of like a team up north a bit.

While it may be easy to pick the Red Sox to win the division based on experience, starting pitching or simple faith they’ll play inspired September baseball (like the Rays won’t?), or easy to pick the Rays because of their more dependable bullpen and home dominance, often times these division races come down to who has the scheduling advantage in August and September. If either the Rays or Sox play a team like Cleveland or Seattle who have essentially nothing to play for and may have packed it in by mid-September, that’s a huge advantage. If one team has a plethora of road games compared to home games down the stretch, that’s a HUGE disadvantage, especially this season. Let’s dissect (and my doing this I’m not counting out the Yankees, but they are 6.5 out):

August 6-17
Tampa Bay: @ Seattle (4), @ Oakland (3), @ Texas (3)
Boston: @ Chicago (4), Texas (3), Toronto (3)

If the Red Sox can survive this weekend only down three games, with Tampa playing a terrible Seattle team (although they’ve played inspired baseball the last two days in thrilling comeback wins over contending Minnesota, although I’m not sure the Twins are 100% for real), while the Red Sox combine their road issues with a fiery first place Chicago team, they should feel fortunate. Luckily, a Sonnanstine-Hernandez matchup kicks off their series, so it’s vital for the M’s to take that game. The most difficult series for Tampa will be @ Texas, a team with a knack for the dramatic win and a club that boasts the most powerful and potent offense in the game. The Red Sox play them at home where they swept the Rangers, albeit a wholly different team then, in a four-game set.

Prediction: The Red Sox fall back four games after this weekend, but gain it back during their homestand while Tampa visits Oakland and Texas. Yeah, I know, Oakland is pathetic, but they have decent pitching. At this point, the Red Sox still sit 3 GB.

August 18-31
Tampa Bay: Los Angeles (3), @ Chicago (3), Toronto (3), Baltimore (3)
Boston: @ Baltimore (3), @ Toronto (3), @ NY Yankees (3), White Sox (3)

With a rough September ahead, this is the stretch where the Rays need to lock up the division, or at least gain a very comfortable lead. The Angels are the best road team in the league (and the best team overall) so they’re not a pushover, but playing Toronto and Baltimore in the Trop is a huge six-game stretch where Tampa should win five games. Meanwhile, Boston has to play nine consecutive games against the East on the road, where Baltimore is a MUCH different team and Toronto has experience great success vs. Boston in the Rogers Centre. Not to mention a fired up Yankees team possibly starting to play for their lives. When the Red Sox return home, they get first-place Chicago again. Thanks.

Prediction: The Rays have to gain here. They might lose two of three to the Angels and the White Sox, moving the Red Sox closer, but they should dominate the last six games of August while Boston has to go through some major trials. In my mind, the Rays gain two games out of this stretch and now lead by 5 games. Still a long way to go.

September 1-14
Tampa Bay: NY Yankees (3), @ Toronto (3), @ Boston (3), @ NY Yankees (3)
Boston: Baltimore (3), @ Texas (3), Tampa Bay (3), Toronto (3)

Here comes the major opportunity for the Red Sox. The Rays play nine of 12 road games during this stretch, and their one home series is against the Yankees, who as I mentioned before, will be looking to win every game to get back into the thick of the pennant race. There’s no reason why Boston can’t win all four of those series, and may be able to take 10 of 12 on that slate. Meanwhile, this could be the stretch where the young and inexperienced Rays hit a major roadblock and desperately attempt to rebound. If they survive these 12 games without losing much at all, they’re the clear favorite.

Prediction: The Red Sox win at least 2/3 and likely sweep in the head-to-head series at Fenway, while taking firm advantage of their Fenway series vs. Baltimore and Toronto. The Rays go through their rough stretch on the road during this time and lose four games to Boston in the standings. They’re now 1 GA.

September 15-28
Tampa Bay: Boston (3), Minnesota (4), @ Baltimore (4), @ Detroit (4)
Boston: @ Tampa Bay (3), @ Toronto (3), Cleveland (4), NY Yankees (3)

The biggest series in Rays history will take place September 15-17 at the Trop in Tampa Bay, a place they have thoroughly dominated Boston this season, and pretty much every other opponent. Then they welcome contending Minnesota, who will undoubtedly be trying to fend off Ozzie’s White Sox at the same time and playing for a division title. On the road again for the final eight- Baltimore and Detroit- two teams who are unpredictable at this point over whether they’ll be playing inspired baseball. At the beginning of the season, seven with the Indians and Yankees to end the year looked daunting; now, Cleveland could be a four-game sweep and the Yankees, while I believe they’ll be in the Wild Card race this late, can be beaten. The true trial will be the series in the Trop for the Red Sox and avoiding the brooms.

Prediction: The Rays take two of three in Tampa to go up two games. The Rays take three of four over the Twins and the Sox take two from Toronto, so the lead is 2.5 games. Then, Tampa splits with Baltimore and the Red Sox sweep the Indians, moving the lead closer at just 0.5 games. Suspenseful, right? I have a hard time predicting the Rays lose much in Detroit with their pitching, they’ll take three of four, while Boston takes two of three from the Yankees. The Rays win the division by 1 game.

Yep, that’s right, I just picked Tampa to win the East. Like in Little Big League when Griffey robbed Lou Collins of the home run that would have won it for the Twins….unexpected, right? Sure, this entire experiment and the results were a result of my brain and were completely elementary and arbitrary. Who cares, it was fun for me. Try to avoid scathing comments.

Here are the gritty numbers:

Road games: Tampa (30), Boston (22)
Home games: Tampa (19), Boston (25)
Off days: Tampa (6 and 1 DH), Boston (6)
Head-to-head contests: 6

The next few weeks should be fun, folks.