MLB Cy Young Power Rankings: Open Season for All Pitchers
We are now into September, and by now the Cy Young Award winner tends to be clear, or we are at least between a couple players.
Last year at this time, Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez were battling it out, the 13-8, 2.32 ERA against the 13-5, 2.77 ERA respectively. Both players had great Septembers that year, as neither player lost a game.
In the National League, it was down to the wire between Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter, and Adam Wainwright, and it ended up being an extremely close vote as a result; I'm expecting that again this year for both leagues.
In 2008, Cliff Lee was declared the winner already at this point, and Tim Lincecum's 15-3 record received similar treatment, though Brandon Webb's 22 wins took some votes.
This year, it is anyone's game. In the National League, it is realistically between six players, with the top three in a deadlock.
In the American League, there are many players that can take some votes. Sabathia had a great August and has risen up the rankings, while King Felix is out to prove that wins are not everything. Lee's struggles have made him no longer an automatic front runner, and Mariano Rivera will probably take a couple votes, even with this starting pitching.
There are 12 to 13 people that could win the Cy Young if they have stellar Septembers, including a couple that you have probably never even heard of! Such is the beauty of this race, though it's a pain for those who dare rank them.
Honorable Mentions
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There are a few players who I was considering putting on this list but eventually didn't for various reasons. Since they may be players who will be questioned in discussion, I'm placing, hopefully all of them, here:
Andy Pettitte: If he had the innings and had not gone down with an injury, he'd be in the top 10 easily. Alas, 18 starts and under 120 innings pitched keeps one out of the discussion.
Mariano Rivera: He's going to play spoiler down the stretch and take some Cy Young votes. Usually when he pitches this well, he finishes second or third in voting. However, with how good the starting pitching is in both leagues this year, I have no idea where to rank him, and as such I'm just placing him here, noting that he is pitching like a Cy Young winner. You can't not include him with a 1.13 ERA
Brian Wilson, Heath Bell, Rafael Soriano, Billy Wagner: They are all great closers who are in the same boat as Rivera, especially those in the National League, where the starting pitching is even better.
Roy Oswalt, Matt Cain: They are pitching very well this year, but a 9-13 and 10-10 record respectively won't cut it with over-3.00 ERAs. Felix Hernandez, on the other hand, is in the top 10.
Matt Garza: He has suddenly been great and has turned into the No. 2 starter the Rays need in September. Not in the top 10 yet but has at least made the top 15 with a great August.
Carl Pavano: If this list went solely by my own opinion, he'd be top-10 definitely. I tried to be objective though, and the sabermetric world would be peeved if Francisco Liriano was not on the list. Had to choose one or the other.
National League: 10. Clayton Kershaw/Johan Santana/Brett Myers
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Last month: Kershaw ninth, others unranked.
These three are nearly identical right now, so much so that I couldn't exclude one to keep the others. Their teams are within seven wins of each other, so even that's not a deal breaker. Who would you put as No. 10?
Player A: 10-7, 2.97 ERA, 52 BB, 145 K, 185 IP, 1.222 WHIP, 2 CG, WAR 4.4 (Baseball-Reference) or 3.7 (FanGraphs)
Player B: 10-9, 3.02 ERA, 54 BB, 141 K, 194 IP, 1.186 WHIP, 4 CG, 2 SHO, WAR 4.5 or 3.7
Player C: 11-8, 3.01 ERA, 74 BB, 180 K, 170.1 IP, 1.245 WHIP, WAR 3.6 or 3.8.
Chose one yet? Hard, isn't it?
I'd probably pick A myself, though B is tempting as well.
Anyway, player A is Brett Myers, player B is Johan Santana, and player C is Clayton Kershaw. Maybe Kershaw's not as similar, but Santana and Myers are near clones.
9. R.A. Dickey
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Last month: Unranked
He's earned it at this point. He won't get any Cy votes, but nine wins in 20 starts with a 2.57 ERA is not what we were expecting from him this season. Granted, was anyone expecting anything?
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8. Jaime Garcia
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Last month: eighth
The Cardinals are looking to limit Garcia's innings down the stretch. They've got two other pitchers on this list, so they can afford that. He'll still be a top vote-getter in the Rookie of the Year voting.
7. Chris Carpenter
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Last month: seventh
Carpenter's been dominant yet again for the Cardinals this year. He has a 14-5 record, 2.92 ERA, and 147 K's, not to mention facing 811 batters.
If he has an amazing September and chisels away at that ERA, he could paint himself into the discussion, though the top six have not really budged the past couple months.
6. Ubaldo Jimenez
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Last month: fourth
I feel bad for Ubaldo. He should have 20 wins already. Here are three of his last four starts: 1 ER, 7 IP, 1-0 loss; 3 ER, 6 IP, 3-1 loss; 3 ER, 7 IP, 6-2 loss.
When did the Rockies suddenly stop hitting? Heck, his last outing he went 126 pitches, so he clearly wants to get back into the thick of the Cy Young race. Twenty wins will do it, but can the Rockies do that for him?
5. Mat Latos
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Last month: fifth
Right now, the top five have nearly identical ERAs (between 2.24 and 2.30), and it takes more than a glance at stats to split them up.
In Latos' case, he falls to fifth due to his injury. Clay Buchholz has the same problem in the American League. A 2.29 ERA is great, as is a 13-5 record, but factor in the park and his 150 innings pitched, and he's not quite there.
He has plenty of time to win a Cy Young; I'm not worried.
4. Josh Johnson
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Last month: first
There is a movement beginning, which I support, to take wins into less account for Cy voting. This would help Johnson, as his 11-5 record is what's separating him from the top three.
It's not his fault, but when the top four are this tightly packed, it's the little things that separate the front runners from the, well, other front runners.
3. Tim Hudson
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When you lead the league in ERA and you play for arguably the best team in the league, you're doing all right.
So why is Hudson third and not Adam Wainwright or Roy Halladay? Honestly, I think it's because Hudson has been flying under the radar a bit compared to the other two.
How he is, I have no clue, but it feels like it with everyone handing the award to Halladay in the preseason and Wainwright coming off last year's near win.
Realistically though, he's a distant third in strikeouts, innings pitched, complete games/shutouts, and WAR (on FanGraphs; they're all close together on BR). It's those tiny differences that separate first place from third. Just ask...
2. Adam Wainwright
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Last month: third
Leading the league in wins and innings pitched isn't enough, and Wainwright proved that last year. This time, between himself, Hudson, and Halladay, he finishes second in most stats.
He again is leading the league in wins though and could still win 20. He may need that 20th win to seal the deal if everyone else keeps pitching the way they do.
1. Roy Halladay
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Last month: second
Let's see here. In the preseason Halladay was the Cy Young front runner, then it moved to Jimenez, and then to Johnson around the All-Star break. Wainwright took it most of August, but now it seems that Halladay is again the front runner.
Innings pitched, complete games, shutouts, batters faced, strikeouts—Halladay is leading in an awful lot of categories.
What may hurt him, however, is his 10 losses. Four of those losses were quality starts where he lacked run support though. He holds the lead now, and he knows as well as anyone that one bad outing could move Hudson and Wainwright right past him again.
He may be the front runner, but in this race, I use that term very loosely. The top six all have a realistic shot at taking the crown, and it all depends on September.
American League: 10. Jered Weaver
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Last month: 10th
He won't get any Cy Young votes, but he wants to be on my power rankings list apparently, as he just barely stays on again, thanks to a 3.12 ERA and 200 strikeouts.
That 11-10 record doesn't help him, though he has been showing similarities to King Felix these days, powering through everyone.
9. Francisco Liriano
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Last month: unranked
As noted, I try to be objective when rating these and not make them who I would vote for necessarily. Liriano doesn't make my personal top 10, because I'm not feeling a Cy Young candidate performance from him this year.
Those who like the crazy stats like xFIP, however, love him and have him as a front runner. As such, I'm placing him ninth since he'll get some grassroots support, despite a 3.41 ERA.
His WAR is either second or seventh in the AL though, depending on your tastes, so he's doing something right.
8. Cliff Lee
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Last month: first
How tight is the AL Cy Young race? Clear front runner Cliff Lee has completely fallen off the pace, mainly due to a poor August. With the Rangers, he's gone 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA so far and doubled his walk total (to 12).
What is strange is at this point in this season, though, the top eight all have a strong chance to win the Cy Young, so Lee's not out of it yet despite a 3.37 ERA.
All it takes is a great September, though last time he won the Cy, the race was already over by now.
7. Jon Lester
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Last month: fifth
It's interesting to me how Lester's essentially fallen out of Cy discussions when he has not been pitching any worse lately. Maybe I always had him ranked too high.
Unfortunately, that horrendous performance against Toronto singlehandedly kept him from a much higher spot, despite three games without an earned run this month to make up for it.
Still, a 14-8 record and 3.12 ERA are nothing to be ashamed of.
6. Trevor Cahill
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Last month: Seventh
Speaking of one pitching performance ruining your chances, we have Trevor Cahill, who would have easily been a top-five guy had it not been for his last outing against the Yankees.
He still has a 14-6 record and a 2.82 ERA despite this, but he will need to shake that last outing off quickly if he wants to remain in the hunt.
5. David Price
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Last month: third
As hard as the top eight was to sort, the top five (and for that matter, every other number between one and eight) was even harder.
In a race this tight, you need to have great pitching performances. Price has had consistently good performances, but not great.
In August, he went 1-1 with a 3.48 ERA. That's solid, but it's not going to win you the Cy Young Award, especially with how well the top four have pitched.
4. C.J. Wilson
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Last month: unranked
At the start of the season, the Rangers' ace was looking to be Colby Lewis. He started out as one but has since struggled. The ace then became Cliff Lee after the trade, but he has struggled as well.
Now, seemingly out of nowhere, the best Rangers pitcher has become C.J. Wilson, who was not even a starter until this year.
Wilson is 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA, but he's 4-0 with a 2.11 ERA in August, leading the Rangers closer to the division title and carrying the team on his shoulders, at least on the pitching end. While he's not higher on this list since he came out of nowhere, he is worthy of being in the discussion of front runners.
3. Felix Hernandez
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Last month: unranked
Hernandez is the league leader in innings pitched, strikeouts, WAR, and is second in ERA. So why is he only third? It's because Cy Young voters still care about wins.
Fifteen is the lowest win total that a winner has gotten, and at 10-10, he's probably not going to reach that. He's deserving of the award, but he has to fight more than the other players; he has to fight trends as well.
2. Clay Buchholz
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Last month: eighth
Buchholz is also deserving of the award, as evidenced by a 15-5 record, a league-leading 2.21 ERA, and a top-three WAR.
What hurts his chances is the injury he sustained, giving him just under 150 innings so far. That's not a lot, and it's going to affect voting, whether deservingly or not, though it would not be as much a factor as a .500 record is.
1. CC Sabathia
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Last month: ninth
Would I vote for CC in first place right now? No. Do I think he deserves to win? Possibly, but there are better candidates.
Let's face it though—Cy voting is about how good a pitcher is, with team performance factoring in some cases, and with an 18-5 record, he is leading the now-hurting Yankees. A 3.14 ERA is too high for him to win, so he needs to spend September chipping away at that.
That being said, many people have him the current front runner, and as such I do here, though I would prefer Buchholz, Hernandez, or Wilson over him.
If you disagree that he's first, fight for the player you think deserves it. It's a strange month. Even though CC's first right now, in a week he may fall down to sixth; such is the Cy Young race this year.
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