The Jays exploded for 13 runs in yesterday’s game. With David Price on the mound, they’re unlikely to come anywhere close to that number this evening. Price has been exceptional all season and the Rays are 17-8 (+4.4) in his 25 starts.
Marcum is also enjoying a very solid season for the Jays and has pitched well recently. However, his 4.14 ERA on the road doesn’t compare to Price’s 2.26 ERA at home.
The price may seem a bit steep but the Rays have simply been that good at home the past few seasons. Note that they’re a highly profitable 66-21 (+32.1) the last 87 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range.
Even with yesterday’s loss, the Rays are also still 20-6 the last 26 times that they hosted the Jays. Additionally, the Rays are a perfect 6-0 when Price has started against the Jays. Price was 5-0 with a superb 2.09 ERA in those games. Price has already gotten the better of Marcum twice this season (Rays won by scores of 7-3 at Toronto and 10-1 here at Tampa) and has allowed just one earned run in 23 innings against Toronto this season. Consider laying the wood.
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