NFL Fantasy Football 2010 : Top 5 Reasons Chris Johnson Will Disappoint
Chris Johnson is the consensus pick atop 2010 Fantasy Football drafts. The Tennessee Titans' franchise player is lightning quick possessing 4.3 speed, coming off of a prestigious campaign, and entering the prime of his career.
While all of the above make Chris Johnson a popular choice as the first player taken in fantasy drafts, there are quite a few factors working against CJ2K in 2010.
5. Chris Johnson's tendency to score from distance
Chris Johnson excited his fantasy owners in 2009 with electrifying runs all season long. His 7 touchdowns from 50 yards or more rank as the most in a single season. But can that type of production be counted on?
CJ2K scored on plays of 57, 69, 91, 52, 89, 85, 66 in 2009. That's 509 of his 2509 total yards on home run plays. Considering the speedster only had two such plays in 2008, I think I significant drop off in that category is reasonable.
Even if Johnson was able to get half as many touchdowns from that range, which would still be remarkable, he would stand to lose a significant portion of his production.
Those 50-plus yard touchdowns may be exciting to watch, but they can also skew statistics, and leave owners with a false sense of a player's value.
4. Chris Johnson's slight frame.
Chris Johnson's weighs in at 5',11'' and 191 pounds. That frame is not ideal for a workhorse back in the National Football League.
Now I am not saying a feature back has to be a bruiser, but even Barry Sanders and Marshall Faulk, who are considered undersized, weighed in at 200 pounds.
Chris Johnson has had just one full season as the feature back, so his wheels are fresh, however it is difficult to trust him to hold up with his frame.
3. Alge Crumpler's departure.
Although it may not seem like a significant loss, Alge Crumpler's departure this off season could be troublesome for Chris Johnson in 2010.
Alge Crumpler did not catch more than 27 balls in a single season as a member of the Titans, but he did serve as an extension of the offensive line.
At 275 pounds, Crumpler served as a tremendous run blocker for Chris Johnson in 2009, and his presence will certainly be missed.
2. 2,000 Yard Rushers Struggle to Repeat
This offseason Chris Johnson has been talking about rushing for 2,500 yards. History tells us that he will have a very difficult time doing so.
Of the other five 2,000 yard rushers in NFL history, Barry Sanders came the closest to repeating the feat with 1,491 yards. Each of those five running backs saw his yard per carry average drop at least a yard in the season following his milestone campaign.
Defense are going to stack the box against CJ2K this season considering the lack of offensive talent on the Titans. With a year to figure him out, he will have a tough time repeating his excellence from a year ago.
If for one would not spend the first overall pick on a player with history working against him.
1. Chris Johnson led the league in carries in 2009
In addition to the history of 2,000 yard rushers, Chris Johnson also has the history of leading the league in carries working against him.
Much like 2,000 yard rushers, the running back who leads the league in carries, almost always sees a drop off in yards per carry and overall production.
The reasoning behind this is simple, that type of work load tends to wear on a running back. I have already expressed concern with Johnson's slight frame, and with the work load he had last season, that provides even more concern over Johnson's durability.
The fact of the matter is, if you draft Chris Johnson in the top five picks, all he can do is disappoint. After a magical 2009 season, the former East Carolina stand out has nowhere to go but down in 2010.