Fantasy Football 2010: Values Regardless of Position

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Fantasy Football 2010: Values Regardless of Position
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Everyone knows that with the first pick  in this season's fantasy football draft you want Chris Johnson. That should be no surprise. You would have known even if every analyst in the nation hadn't told you already.

Why should he be the first pick though?

ESPN does not have him scoring the most points, not by a long shot. He is surpassed by more than a few quarterbacks. The truth is that he is better at his position than any other player is at theirs. The trick is quantifying this and comparing it by that same measure to every other player in the league. That requires a formula, and a formula is what I have.

Listed is each player's fantasy order based on point differential against the average fantasy starter at their position, taking into account last season's numbers and this season's projections. (I say average fantasy starter because the volume of bench players at different positions has the potential to skew the data.) The result is a remarkably accurate order for your fantasy draft.

Let me break it down and explain in simpler terms.

 

Within the Position

Andre Johnson is 92.5 points better than the average WR, while Randy Moss is only 81 points better than the average WR, therefore Andre Johnson is higher on the list than Randy Moss.

 

Interpositional

Tom Brady is only 74 points better than the average QB, and therefore ranks lower than Randy Moss at 81, even though Brady will more than likely score more points than Randy Moss over the course of the fantasy season. You would draft Moss over Brady because Moss is more valuable at his position than Brady is at his, regardless of how many points they score overall. 

 

Now, we have one system of measurement for every player in the league and can compare them on an even field.

The best part is that nobody else that I know or read is using this system. If everyone plays with the same information, drafting well comes down to luck and draft position. So while everyone else in your league is using the pre-loaded ESPN fantasy rankings or playing whatever tip Matthew Berry gives them and are all trying to outsmart each other with the same information, you have both a fresh perspective and an edge.

This is also an excellent way to put a definitive value on preseason trades,  (i.e., If someone offers you a trade of anyone higher on this list for anyone lower on this list, you should pull the trigger unless it would overload you or cripple you at any position.)

Here, without further explanation, is the preseason value ranking for 2010:


1. Chris Johnson, Ten RB
2. Adrian Peterson, Min RB 
3. Aaron Rodgers, GB QB
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB
5. Ray Rice, Bal RB
6. Peyton Manning, Ind QB
7. Andre Johnson, Hou WR
8. Drew Brees, NO QB
9. Randy Moss, NE WR
10. Tom Brady, NE QB
11. Matt Schaub, Hou QB
12. Brett Favre, Min QB  
13. Frank Gore, SF RB
14. Dallas Clark, Ind TE 
15. Steven Jackson, StL RB 
16. Antonio Gates, SD TE 
17. Miles Austin, Dal WR
18. DeSean Jackson, Phi WR
19. Tony Romo, Dal QB  
20. Vernon Davis, SF TE
21. Reggie Wayne, Ind WR
22. Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR
23. Philip Rivers, SD QB
24. Roddy White, Atl WR
25. Ryan Grant, GB RB
26. Brandon Marshall, Mia WR
27. Jets D/ST, NYJ D/ST
28. Rashard Mendenhall, Pit RB
29. Brent Celek, Phi TE
30. Sidney Rice, Min WR 
31. 49ers D/ST, SF D/ST
32. Jonathan Stewart, Car RB 
33. DeAngelo Williams, Car RB
34. Nate Kaeding, SD K 
35. Jamaal Charles, KC RB
36. Vincent Jackson, SD WR 
37. Michael Turner, Atl RB
38. Eagles D/ST, Phi D/ST
39. Ricky Williams, Mia RB
40. Ravens D/ST, Bal D/ST
41. Joseph Addai, Ind RB
42. Ryan Matthews, SD RB
43. Packers D/ST, GB D/ST
44. Tony Gonzalez, Atl TE
45. Cowboys D/ST, Dal D/ST
46. Steve Smith, NYG WR P
47. Marques Colston, NO WR
48. Cedric Benson, Cin RB
49. Thomas Jones, KC RB 
50. Greg Jennings, GB WR
51. Calvin Johnson, Det WR
52. Ryan Longwell, Min K
53. Shonn Greene, NYJ RB
54. Jason Witten, Dal TE
55. David Akers, Phi K
56. Steve Smith, Car WR 
57. Kellen Winslow, TB TE 
58. Chad Ochocinco, Cin WR
59. Matt Forte, Chi RB
60. Pierre Thomas, NO RB
61. Bengals D/ST, Cin D/ST
62. Wes Welker, NE WR 
63. Vikings D/ST, Min D/ST
64. Rob Bironas, Ten K
65. Stephen Gostkowski, NE K
66. Jay Cutler, Chi QB
67. Hines Ward, Pit WR 
68. Saints D/ST, NO D/ST
69. Steelers D/ST, Pit D/ST
70. Eli Manning, NYG QB
71. Knowshon Moreno, Den RB 
72. Justin Forsett, Sea RB
73. Jermichael Finley, GB TE 
74. Broncos D/ST, Den D/ST
75. Visanthe Shiancoe, Min TE 
76. Garrett Hartley, NO K
77. Matt Prater, Den K
78. Owen Daniels, Hou TE 
79. Texans D/ST, Hou D/ST
80. Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB 
81. Jay Feely, Ari K
82. Anquan Boldin, Bal WR
83. Patriots D/ST, NE D/ST
84. Mason Crosby, GB K
85. Donald Driver, GB WR P
86. Donovan McNabb, Was QB
87. Heath Miller, Pit TE
88. Zach Miller, Oak TE
89. Lawrence Tynes, NYG K
90. Mike Sims-Walker, Jac WR 
91. Michael Crabtree, SF WR
92. Bills D/ST, Buf D/ST
93. Jerome Harrison, Cle RB
94. Cardinals D/ST, Ari D/ST
95. Jeff Reed, Pit K
96. Beanie Wells, Ari RB
97. Santonio Holmes, NYJ WR 
98. Robert Meachem, NO WR Q
99. Joe Flacco, Bal QB
100. Chargers D/ST, SD D/ST
101. Falcons D/ST, Atl D/ST
102. Percy Harvin, Min WR 
103. Greg Olsen, Chi TE
104. Colts D/ST, Ind D/ST
105. Panthers D/ST, Car D/ST
106. Dan Carpenter, Mia K
107. Sebastian Janikowski, Oak K
108. Robbie Gould, Chi K
109. Ronnie Brown, Mia RB
110. Fred Jackson, Buf RB 
111. LeSean McCoy, Phi RB
112. Derrick Mason, Bal WR
113. Browns D/ST, Cle D/ST
114. Brandon Jacobs, NYG RB 
115.John Carlson, Sea TE 
116. Kevin Kolb, Phi QB
117. Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR 
118. Mike Wallace, Pit WR
119. Neil Rackers, Hou K
120. Olindo Mare, Sea K
121. Shayne Graham, Bal K
122. Jhavid Best, Det RB
123. Bernard Berrian, Min WR
124. Bears D/ST, Chi D/ST
125. Giants D/ST, NYG D/ST
126. Ryan Succop, KC K
127. Marion Barber, Dal RB
128. Rian Lindell, Buf K
129. LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ RB
130. CJ Spiller, Buf RB
131. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Sea WR 
132. Buccaneers D/ST, TB D/ST
133. Titans D/ST, Ten D/ST
134. Terrell Owens, Cin WR
135. Dolphins D/ST, Mia D/ST
136. Joe Nedney, SF K
137. Chris Cooley, Was TE
138. Santana Moss, Was WR
139. Kevin Boss, NYG TE 
140. Pierre Garcon, Ind WR
141. John Kasay, Car K
142. Cadillac Williams, TB RB
143. Josh Brown, StL K
144. Tim Hightower, Ari RB
145. Clinton Portis, Was RB
146. Jeremy Maclin, Phi WR 
147. Dez Bryant, Dal WR
148. Carson Palmer, Cin QB
149. Kris Brown, Hou K
150. Chaz Schilens, Oak WR
151. John Carney, FA K
152. Darren Sproles, SD RB 
153. Montario Hardesty, Cle RB
154. Mario Manningham, NYG WR
155. Dwayne Bowe, KC WR
156. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG RB 
157. Jason Hanson, Det K 
158. Shaun Suisham, StL K
159. Jason Campbell, Oak QB
160. Felix Jones, Dal RB
161. Fred Davis, Was TE
162. Donald Brown, Ind RB
163. Johnny Knox, Chi WR
164. David Garrard, Jac QB
165. Chiefs D/ST, KC D/ST
166. Matt Ryan, Atl QB
167. Devery Henderson, NO WR
168. Braylon Edwards, NYJ WR
169. Darren McFadden, Oak RB
170. Davis Aromashadou, Chi WR
171. Josh Morgan, SF WR
172. Todd Heap, Bal TE
173. Willis McGahee, Bal RB
174. Lee Evans, Buf WR
175. Mohamed Massoqiau, Cle WR
176. Josh Cribbs, Cle WR
177. Kevin Smith, Det RB 
178. Reggie Bush, NO RB
179. Austin Collie, Ind WR
180. Steve Breaston, Ari WR
181. Seahawks D/ST, Sea D/ST
182. Jeremy Shockey, NO TE
183. Redskins D/ST, Was D/ST
184. Arian Foster, Hou RB
185. Laurence Maroney, NE RB
186. Ben Tate, Hou RB
187. Nate Burleson, Det WR
188. Kevin Walter, Hou RB
189. Benjamin Watson, Cle TE
190. Chris Chambers, KC WR
191. Dustin Keller, NYJ TE
192. Marcedes Lewis, Jac TE
193. Raiders D/ST, Oak D/ST
194. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ WR
195. Patrick Crayton, Dal WR
196. Steve Slaton, Hou RB
197. Adrian Foster, Hou RB
198. Roy E. Williams, Dal WR
199. Tony Scheffler, Det TE
200. Julius Jones, Sea RB
201. Jason Snelling, Atl RB
202. Devin Hester, Chi WR
203. Nate Washington, Ten WR 
204. Lions D/ST, Det D/ST
205. Michael Bush, Oak RB
206. Kenny Britt, Ten WR 
207. Earl Bennett, Chi WR 
208. Antonio Bryant, Cin WR 
209. Chester Taylor, Chi RB
210. Malcom Floyd, SD WR 
211. Will Heller, Det TE
212. Brandon Pettigrew, Det TE 
213. Jaguars D/ST, Jac D/ST
214. Tarvaris Jackson, Min QB
215. Correll Buckhalter, Den RB 
216. Matt Leinart, Ari QB
217. Mike Bell, Phi RB P
218. Chad Henne, Mia QB
219. Kyle Orton, Den QB
220. Derrick Ward, TB RB
221. Matt Cassel, KC QB
222. Rams D/ST, StL D/ST
223. Vince Young, Ten QB
224. Alex Smith, SF QB
225. Matthew Stafford, Det QB
226. Ryan Moats, Min RB
227. Justin Fargas, Den RB
228. Kevin Faulk, NE RB
229. Maurice Morris, Det RB
230. Josh Freeman, TB QB
231. Mark Sanchez, NYJ QB
232. Leonard Weaver, Phi RB
233. Matt Hasselbeck, Sea QB  
234.Sam Bradford, StL QB
235 .Matt Moore, Car QB
236. Jake Delhomme, Cle QB
237. Trent Edwards, Buf QB
238. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buf QB
239. Michael Vick, Phi QB
240. Seneca Wallace, Cle QB
241. Brady Quinn, Den QB
242. Dennis Dixon, Pit QB
243. Charlie Whitehurst, Sea QB
244. Jimmy Clausen, Car QB
245. David Carr, SF QB
246. Byron Leftwich, Pit QB
247. A.J. Feeley, StL QB
248. Bruce Gradkowski, Oak QB  
249. Josh Johnson, TB QB
250. Pat White, Mia QB
251. Kerry Collins, Ten QB
252. Dan Orlovsky, Hou QB
253. Derek Anderson, Ari QB
254. Tyler Thigpen, Mia QB


The excess quarterbacks at the end of the list played a little last season, but are not expected to start much this season.

Best of luck this fantasy season, and if this draft technique works for you, be sure to come back for more fantasy tips and tricks throughout the year.

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