Twins, Rangers, or Rays: Who's Got the Best Shot to Defeat the Yankees?
There are fewer than 50 games remaining in the 2010 season.
The New York Yankees looks poised for a return to the World Series.
If the Division Playoffs were to begin today Minnesota would go to New York and Texas would host Tampa Bay.
So who has the best chance of defeating the Yankees and representing the American League in the World Series?
Comparing starting pitching, playoff experience, team defense and a couple other statistics I ranked the Twins, Rangers and Rays (sorry Boston and Chicago fans) based on their ability to defeat the Yankees.
Starting Pitching
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No doubt if it came down to one pitcher, the edge would go to Cliff Lee of the Texas Rangers (for now).
Here's a look at each team's combined statistics for their starters:
Texas Rangers: 40-29, 4.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
The Ranger starters have 40.8% of the total team wins. With only four starts for Texas, Cliff Lee is already tied for the team lead in complete games with C.J. Wilson.
Minnesota Twins: 48-28, 3.88 RA, 1.23 WHIP
The Twins have used only six starters for most of the season. They have accounted for 48 of the team's 66 wins (49.5%). Carl Pavano currently leads the team with a 15-7 record and has five complete games.
Tampa Bay Rays: 55-35, 3.86, 1.28 WHIP.
As good as the Minnesota starters have been, Tampa Bay's have been better. Their starters have been extremely consistent, accounting for 112 of 115 starts in 2010, and accounting for 49.1% of the Rays' 69 wins. With his 15-5 record, 24 year-old David Price—who, like Lee and Pavano is a Cy Young candidate—leads the Rays young pitching staff.
This is very close. Most likely the only way the Rangers face the Yankees would be in the League Championship Series. In a seven game series, Lee would get the chance to start three times.
Edge: Texas Rangers
Playoff Experience
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How important is it having "been there, done that?"
The last time the Texas Rangers were in the playoffs, elder statesman Darren Oliver was playing for St. Louis, and a 20-year old Cliff was not even pitching in the minors.
Of all the players on the active rosters, Jim Thome of the Twins has the most experience having played in 64 playoff games.
He's played in two World Series while a member of the Cleveland Indians. But how much impact will he have as a part time DH and pinch hitter?
At an average age of 27.5, the Tampa Bay Rays have more playoff experience than either Minnesota or Texas. Their combined total of 168 playoff games edges out that for Minnesota (162) and is substantially more than that of Texas (98).
Edge: Tampa Bay—a young team that has World Series experience.
Team Defense
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There's the old adage that pitching and defense wins championships.
The Minnesota Twins pride themselves on their team defense.
Usually among the league leaders, 2010 is no exception.
The Twins currently rank first in the league in fielding percentage at .989, and last in the league in errors committed with 46.
The Rays are currently fourth in fielding percentage at .986, and have committed 60 errors.
The Rangers are a lowly 12th in the league with a .981 fielding percent and have committed 80 errors.
Edge: Minnesota Twins—a team cannot give up extra outs if they hope to defeat the Yankees.
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Team Offense
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The New York Yankees lead the league in runs scored with 609.
The Twins (575), Rangers (572) and Rays (571) are all among the league leaders.
Minnesota currently leads the league with a .281 team batting average. The resurgence of three-time batting champion, Joe Mauer, who has raised his is average from .299 to .324 since the All-Star break, has helped the Twins go 20-8 in that span.
The Texas Rangers are currently second in the league with a .276 batting average. Josh Hamilton continues to lead the league in hitting with a .362 average, 158 hits, and a .633 slugging percentage. He is also among league leaders in home runs (6th), and RBI (8th). He has made a strong bid for the league MVP award.
The Tampa Bay Rays .249 average leads only Seattle and Cleveland in the American League.
Edge: Tie between the Twins and Rangers.
Intangibles
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Ron Gardenhire has done more with less for longer than just about anyone.
Anyone, except perhaps Joe Maddon.
While Gardenhire is going for his sixth division title in nine years, Maddon took the Rays, another small market team, to the World Series in only his third year managing the team back in 2008.
Gardenhire holds the edge for games managed (1413), wins (775) and winning percentage (.548) over Maddon and Ron Washington. However, over the years the AL Central has been the weakest division in the American League, while the AL East has been the strongest.
Neither the Twins, Rangers, or Rays have a winning record against the Yankees looking back to 2007, the time frame all three managers have been in the league.
Perhaps it is the opportunity to play them 18 times a year that has given the Rays the best winning percentage at 43%, better than Texas (37%) or Minnesota (27%).
The Rays, Rangers and Twins all trail the Yankees for the best record in baseball. The Rays own the second best record in the AL, while the Rangers are third and the Twins fourth.
Edge: Tampa Bay—with a winning record against the Yankees (so far) in 2010, Maddon edges out Gardenhire.
Overall
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Best of the bunch to beat the Yankees: Tampa Bay Rays.
The Tampa Bay Rays have the experience, familiarity, and swagger that's needed to beat the Yankees.
They will just have to beat the Rangers in the divisional round of the playoffs to get the shot at New York.
Here's a summary of the criteria:
Rangers get the edge for Starting Pitching and Team Offense.
Twins get the edge for Team Defense, Team Offense, and for Manager.
Rays get the edge for Playoff Experence, Manager, and record vs. Yankees.
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