I Believe in Matt Forte

I believe in Matt Forte this season.

There, I said it.

For those of you who’ve forgotten, Forte is the “one-hit-wonder” running back for the Chicago Bears who had an extraordinary rookie season, then seemed to fall apart in his second year in the league.

In 2010, he barely cracked 900 yards and seemed completely incompetent when running the ball in the red zone. Chicago’s run game was disturbingly dreadful, which translated to their passing game—which also turned out to be disturbingly dreadful by year’s end as well.

His talent is somewhere in the middle of those two seasons. He definitely played past expectations in his rookie year (1238 yards, 8 TDs), but he has much more ability than what he showed last season.

Last season was a disastrous one on all levels for the Bears. Their defense lost Brian Urlacher in the first game, Cutler never found trust with his wide receivers, and the team didn’t seem united.

Sometimes it was like watching a couple of guys that just got together one Sunday to play football. They got stomped by Minnesota and Cincinnati, and lost a few heart-breakers with Green Bay and San Francisco. It was disappointing all the way around.

One major key (and predictor) of Forte’s eventual production this year is new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. People are split on Martz because he’s a football genius as well as a little insane, but the man’s offense is something to marvel at (if the players are able to master it).

In Martz’s offense, the running back position is crucial. They mostly work the RB as a receiver out of the backfield, designing plays to get these elusive athletes out into the open field. It was the offense that turned St. Louis Rams RB Marshall Faulk into a hall-of-fame player, and gave fame to Kevin Jones and a young Frank Gore.

There will be times when the offense stalls. Jay Cutler is a wild card every Sunday, and he will have his bad games and his good games.

But Forte will be able to take advantage of this new opportunity. Nobody has ever labeled him as an “elusive” back. He’s more of a run-between-the-tackles sort of guy that gets you four-five yards a carry simply by keeping his head down and powering forward.

It will be interesting to see how he reacts when he catches the ball in the open field and has to side-step past two linebackers, and sprint past a couple of safeties for the end zone.

Chicago signed RB Chester Taylor (formerly of the Minnesota Vikings) in the off-season and most people took that as an un-subtle sign that Chicago was finished with Forte.

If anything, this helps Forte this season and in future seasons. In the two years that Forte has been in the league, he has had over 570 carries. If he doesn’t want to be reduced to a wheel chair by his fifth year in the league, he needs some help.

Forte’s touches will go down this year, but that’s a good thing; it will keep the man fresh all the way into December.

(Side Note: If I were a coach and I had an elite running back, there would be no way that he would be getting more than 10-15 touches a game. Backs get too beat up when they first get into the league. Two-back systems make sense because of the increasing brutality of the sport.

Chris Johnson should be playing until he’s thirty. That won’t happen if he’s carrying the ball 300 times a year. It would work out for both parties. Most guys go by the logic that if they are getting treated like Earl Campbell, then they might as well get paid like him.)

These guys' statistics would go down, and we wouldn’t see the kind of holdouts that we currently get in the NFL every off-season.

There are still problems with the Chicago offense. Jay Cutler has already been mentioned, but not enough can be said about his value this season. When he falters, the entire offense will falter.

The offensive line needs some work. It won’t be as bad as last season, but it still isn’t where it needs to be.

Chris Williams is a good player that hopefully will be making the jump from an everyday lineman to an elite one. The receivers are also suspect.

The Mike Martz offense depends entirely on the receivers because Cutler is going to be throwing “to a space” and not a receiver, and it completely depends on the timing of both parties.

Receivers like Johnny Knox, Devin Jester, and Earl Bennett are huge question marks. Bennett is a good player and he and Cutler have chemistry, but he’s not a great talent. Devin Aromashadu is the best option, but it looks like the Bears' coaching staff is going to reduce him to a slot receiver—at least the beginning of the season.

This offense will stumble this season, but it won’t be because of Forte. Although most people look at him and his situation and deem it nearly impossible for him to succeed, that isn’t the case.

If you play fantasy football or any of that junk then, yes, draft Forte early and keep a close eye on the Bears camp over the next month. But most important, watch this guy during the season. He’s talented enough to star this season. You don’t want to be the guy who misses this guy’s season.