Instant Analysis: Moreno Goes Down!
The fantasy world is holding its collective breath—at least those that were counting on second year RB Knowshon Moreno to lead them to the promised land.
Moreno was carted off the field yesterday after not being able to put any weight on his right leg. As of this writing, updates are emerging more quickly than they can be read and somewhere within is the truth of the situation.
Super-secretive head coach Josh McDaniels has failed to shed any light on the injury, but is obviously very concerned about the situation. The most recent reports seem to suggest that the likely injury is a torn or “popped” hamstring, but some have suggested an ACL injury.
Regardless of the specifics, it is obvious that the injury is serious and likely to sideline Moreno for a significant amount of time. Until further “official” updates emerge, it’s only guesswork as to the actual affliction and timetable for return.
Knowshon Moreno’s Dynasty Value
Obviously, any season-ending injury would reduce Moreno’s dynasty value. Going into a new dynasty draft, coaches do not like to draft players that will start the year on the shelf. Realistically, Moreno’s value will drop at least a round in a new draft.
Moreno is still young, hasn’t had a significant injury history and, assuming the worst, would only lose a year of production.
If it is not a season ending injury, Moreno’s value would likely also slip, perhaps only as much as a half of a round to those willing to burn an early pick for longer term value at the expense of near term production.
Knowshon Moreno’s Redraft Value
Moreno’s largest reduction in value is in redraft leagues.
Until more solid news emerges about the extent of his injury and the timetable, redrafters will not be willing to risk an early selection on what could be a season ending injury. Hamstring injuries are notoriously tricky to fully recover from and effects can linger long after the initial recovery.
Redraft leagues just underway will be the most affected as coaches attempt to either play it safe by avoiding selecting Moreno altogether or rolling the dice depending on their individual risk tolerances.
While just a guess until more is known, it seems likely that this injury will find Moreno missing at least part of the season, resulting in a multiple round drop in value.
The Denver Running Game
Making matters worse in Denver is the fact that RB2 Correll Buckhalter went down with a leg/back injury and experienced numbness shortly after.
Recent reports are more encouraging and it seems that Buckhalter may not be out of action long. Denver moved RB3 J.J. Arrington to Philadelphia on July 30th, making for a clean sweep of their viable RB stable in two short days.
Looking deeper into Denver’s depth chart finds the uninspiring choices of Kolby Smith, Bruce Hall and Lance Ball. Should Moreno’s injury be confirmed as serious, it is likely that Denver will be shopping for a starting running back. Names such as Buffalo’s Marshawn Lynch and free agents LenDale White and Brian Westbrook immediately come to mind.
Fearing and expecting the worst possible outcome, Denver’s running back situation and seasonal prospects have taken a serious hit early into training camp. This news is sure to change the landscape of the RB ADP lists for all formats.
Fingers will be crossed while we all wait for more official information to be released.
UPDATE: FOX 31 in Denver is reporting the injury suffered by Moreno is to his hamstring and that an MRI has revealed it is NOT torn, as feared.
He's certainly not out of the woods, though. Since he heard a pop, that has to be a pretty severe strain. He'll most certainly be out for a while and is not certain to be ready for opening day.
Article written by Jeff Haverlack
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