Adam Dunn: Should Washington Nationals Keep Him or His $60 Million?

The word on the street this morning is that the Nationals would remove first baseman Adam Dunn from the trade market if he would give the team an informal agreement about a contract that could be hammered out over the next few months.

Several sources have reported that Dunn is seeking a four year deal worth $60 million. Does that make sense for the Nationals in the long-term?

Ryan Howard, who is a little bit better than Dunn in most areas, is making $19 million this year. Alfonso Soriano left the Nationals in 2006 and signed an eight-year deal that paid him $18 million a year. Matt Holiday signed a long-term deal with the Cardinals last winter and earns $16.5 million.

Here are the four player’s current stats as of July 17^th :

Adam Dunn—.281-23-63

Alfonso Soriano—.272-18-54

Ryan Howard—.300-22-78

Matt Holliday—.305-18-57

There is no doubt that Dunn is roughly the equal—give or take—of those players and should therefore earn roughly the same amount.

So Dunn’s asking price of $15 million seems reasonable.

But is the rest of the Nationals’ roster close enough to winning to make that type of an investment worthwhile?

Here are the positional heir apparent’s currently in the team’s minor league system along with when they could be ready to play in the major leagues:

1B—Chris Marrero (Harrisburg: .294-13-59)

Marrero has made great strides this season and could be ready as soon as 2012. His defense, though, is no better than Dunn’s, maybe worse.

2B—Jeff Konerbus (Hagerstown: .285-1-40)

He is 22 and playing in the Low-A South Atlantic League. He looks good as a prospect but is at least three seasons away.

SS—Danny Espinosa (Harrisburg: .256-14-44)

A real-deal prospect, Espinosa started slowly but has been hot of late. Hit .264-18-72 last season with Class-A Potomac. He’s an excellent fielder. He’ll be ready in perhaps two years.

3B—Having Ryan Zimmerman at third means no prospect is needed here.

OF—Eury Perez (Hagerstown: .279-3-38, 38 stolen bases)

Perez hit .381 in the Dominican League last year and continues to impress. Great speed and a good defender, he is at least three or four years away.

OF—J.P. Ramirez (Hagerstown: .285-10-49)

When the Nationals couldn’t sign first-round pick Aaron Crow in 2008, they used some of that money to sign Ramirez, a first-round talent who slipped because of his college commitment and demand for a large bonus.

The Nationals overpaid for the 20-year-old and have a strong defender with good power. He, like Perez, is at least three years away from the big leagues.

C—Derek Norris (Potomac: .237-6-29)

Hand surgery kept Norris out of the early part of the season and has affected his play, but no one has forgotten his breakout season in 2009 and he is still a top prospect.

  He is just 21 and needs more time, though. Don’t look for him until the 2013 season.

Timing is everything, and timing isn’t on the Nationals’ side right now. Though the pitching is good enough to contend next season, the current offense is too sporadic to support the pitching.

If the Nationals trade Dunn and the other valuable parts in return for prospects, they will enter next season with one of the better rotations in the league and in essence a minor league offense.

By the time the offenses matures—say two or three years—the pitching staff will begin to grow long in the tooth and a combination of contracts, age and performance might force the Nationals to start anew.

Right about the time the offense begins to click.

The Nationals have two options. They can either front-load their offense through trades and free agency and enter 2011 a contender or they can trade for prospects now and hope the pitching staff can wait for them to mature.

And though I hope for the former, I ultimately expect the latter.