2010 Detroit Lions Better Than a 3-13 Team? HaMMeR Says "No."

Detroit Lions better than a 3-13 record in 2010?  HaMMeR says "No."

When the NFL decides to expand the league and create new franchises, the expansion team is rewarded with additional draft picks, as well as being able to acquire players from a select list of free agents provided by the rest of the teams in the league.  Such were the beginnings of the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars, and recently the “new” Cleveland Browns.  But, riddle me this, Batman, “How does one restock the roster when the MachiaMillian has ransacked the cupboard and there are no extra draft picks, no select free agents from whom to choose, or special gifts from the league?”  In the wake of becoming the laughing stock of the National Football League by losing every single game during the 2008 season, earning the coveted “OwenXVI Champions” title, wouldn’t it seem appropriate for the organization to completely clean house and start over with new personnel from outside the franchise who set the record for futility?

No.  You hire the “XO” (the “Executive Officer”, who would be second in command aboard the ship of fools piloted by “CO” Matt Millen).  The “XO” in this instance happens to be Super Bowl Champion during earlier life, Bulldog Juris Doctor via night school, and aspiring General Manager by day.  When Bill Parcells called WCF and shared his interest in taking the helm of the once-storied franchise, “The Tuna” was rebuffed.  The “understudy” of Matt Millen would be promoted from within, without external search, to the rank of General Manager, the new “CO” for the Detroit Lions.

In life, there are times when we learn by seeing how things are done the right way, and there are also times when we learn be seeing how things are done completely wrong.  Mayhew’s former boss was without question the shining beacon of HOW NOT TO DO.  Lions fans are still in the early throes of healing from the Millen disaster, a process that Martin Mayhew, in conjunction with Tom Lewand and Jim Schwartz, is doing his best to accelerate.  While not all of Mayhew’s roster moves have been met with fanfare, there is little doubt as to whether this is a popularity contest, rather the results of men driven by their collective will and conviction.

The team the new leadership (Mayhew/Lewand/Schwartz) inherited had just lost every game the previous season.  They churned more than half of the roster, kept the veterans worth keeping (for the 2009 season), drafted guys they felt could fit the future build, picked up players off the waiver wire, signed a few free agents, and made some trades.  Throughout the 2009 season, the Lions front office continued to churn the bottom of the roster.  Since the day Martin Mayhew took the helm of the “new” Detroit Lions, he has constantly worked every avenue of approach to try to improve the Lions roster from top to bottom.  Honestly, I’m very proud to see such a proactive stance and what appears to be good leadership in action.  This is a welcome change within the realm of Lions fandom.

The 2009 season came and went and served to be exactly what I thought it would be:  a 16-week tryout for the 2010 Detroit Lions.  Shuffle them in, shuffle them out, try this guy here, this guy inside on these downs, outside on that down, blah, blah, blah.  When the dust settled on the carpet, the Lions managed two wins on the season, with the victory against Cleveland an unbelievable, fairy-tale ending.

So how many 2010 Detroit Lions will have been 2009 Detroit Lions?  Will there be half as many again?  When a club guts its roster two years in a row, how does that effect team chemistry?  How many rookies will start for the Lions in 2010, and how many players will be in either their first or second year?  Are there any new position coaches, additions, deletions, or additional duties as assigned?

Now let’s think in terms of the Lions’ opponents for the 2010 campaign.  The NFC North features the two-best run defenses in the NFL, Green Bay and Minnesota, and the Bears will return Brian Urlacher and added Julius Peppers in the offseason.  Those same teams seem to do just fine on offense as well.  These ingredients do not make for the baking of a happy cake in Detroit, no matter how you try to slice it.  I don’t see any victories against NFC North opponents during the 2010 season, but for the sake of argument, let’s say the Lions beat the Bears at Ford Field on December 5th.

How about the other divisions the Lions are scheduled to face in 2010?  That’s right, campers, the NFC East and the AFC East.  While I might be tempted to suggest the Lions could beat the Bills in Orchard Park, the fact of the matter is that the Lions drafted well ahead of the Bills, and we know what that means.  As for the Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins?  Forget about it.

Okay, so far I’m down 14 with two to go:  St. Louis at home and Tampa Bay on the Road.  The Lions couldn’t beat the Rams at Ford Field last year, so the scheduling thought they’d let ‘em try it again.  Maybe Cliff Avril will tackle a little bit lower during their 2010 contest, and maybe the Lions will win.  Stafford versus Bradford will be a great showdown at Ford Field.

Thinking that the Bucc’s are going to be an easily beatable team at Raymond James Stadium would be a huge mistake.  The folks in Tampa Bay have this game circled as a “W” for the Buccaneers, just like Lions fans are thinking “W” for the Leos.  The Green Bay Packers got their feelings hurt down Tampa way last year, so I don’t know how credible it is to suggest a Lions victory, but I’ve got to make numbers somehow.

Do you know why the Lions can’t finish 5th in the NFC North anymore?  Because there are only four teams since the Buccaneers are now in the NFC South.

To make matters worse, history is not on the Lions side for recovery:

Year	Win	Loss	Finish
2009	2	14	4
2008	0	16	4
2007	7	9	3
2006	3	13	4
2005	5	11	3
2004	6	10	3
2003	5	11	4
2002	3	13	4
2001	2	14	5
Avg	3.67	12.33	3.78

Since 2001, the Detroit Lions average about 3 2/3 victories and 12 1/3 losses per year (tough to get thirds when the game is played in quarters, but this is the new math, folks), and finish mostly last in the NFC North.  Nothing like a couple of good “thunder bumpers” right before the parade, right?

Without question, the Detroit Lions will have more talent on their 2010 roster than they did in recent years past, but adding more talent doesn’t always equate to immediate gains in the win column.  Coaches, staff, and players need time to gel and coalesce in order to create the synergy that transforms a group of players from individuals into members of a highly-efficient team.  Parts of the equation include the leaders, the led, communication, and the scheme.  These matters simply take time.  Matt Millen completely unwound the talent pool in Detroit in eight years.  If Mayhew can get the Lions back to “respectable” in half that time, I’d say he’s done a fine job, all things being considered.

When I see people put their season prognostications in print, the first thing I want to know is, “How’d you get there from here?  Show me the wins and where they are coming from.”  Any lack of specificity in this regard on behalf of the prognosticator is like listening to Charlie Brown’s teacher.  Pick your picks and leave no ambiguity.  Say what you mean, and mean what you say.

HaMMeR’s 2010 Detroit Lions Regular Season prediction:

Wk	Date	Opponent	W-L
1	09/12/10	at Chicago Bears	L
2	09/19/10	Philadelphia Eagles season">Philadelphia Eagles	L
3	09/26/10	at Minnesota Vikings	L
4	10/03/10	at Green Bay Packers	L
5	10/10/10	St. Louis Rams	W
6	10/17/10	New York Giants season">at New York Giants	L
7	Bye
8	10/31/10	Washington Redskins season">Washington Redskins	L
9	11/07/10	New York Jets	L
10	11/14/10	at Buffalo Bills	L
11	11/21/10	Dallas Cowboys season">at Dallas Cowboys	L
12	11/25/10	New England Patriots	L
13	12/05/10	Chicago Bears	W
14	12/12/10	Green Bay Packers	L
15	12/19/10	at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W
16	12/26/10	at Miami Dolphins	L
17	01/02/10	Minnesota Vikings	L
		2010 Lions Win/Loss Prediction:	3-13

Just like any other assembled fighting force, it takes training, leadership, and skill applied over the course of years to develop a team that rises far above its peers.  This application will be no different during the second year of the rebuilding phase in Detroit.  The Lions still don’t have all of the requisite pieces in place, and by best accounts, it could easily take two more years just to meet the personnel demands.  It takes time for a defensive line and defensive backfield to learn how to work in concert with each other, as each does not operate in a vacuum; rather, they are interdependent upon each other for their mutual success.  The Lions still have question marks on defense at OLB, DE, CB, and S.  Only Louis Delmas returns to the Lions defensive secondary.  Johnny Knox was able to run past the coverage of Chris Houston enroute to a TD catch last year, and until the Lions get starting-grade talent at the cornerback position, guys like Percy Harvin, Donald Driver, and Greg Jennings will likely continue to give the Lions and their fans fits.

My prediction of a 3-13 regular season finish for the Detroit Lions is not an indictment of the ability of Schwartz or Mayhew or any of the players, but rather a reflection of a house that was demolished and must be rebuilt from the bottom to the top.  I believe the Lions have the right leadership in place to bring success back to the four-time NFL Championship franchise, but I also believe that chemistry and success are not achieved overnight.  The improvement of this team will not be measured in wins in 2010.  The die-hard fans of the Detroit Lions will need to hang on through another rough season before progress comes to town.  Fifty-three years and counting...