White Sox Cannot Stand Pat at Deadline

No one outside of the south side of Chicago thought that the White Sox would be in first place at the All-Star break.  But a look at Ozzie Guillen's managerial record suggests that the Sox strong first half should have been anticipated.  

Since taking over in 2004, Guillen's teams, with the exception of the disaster that was 2007 edition, have all been either in first place, or the AL Wild Card at the break.  Don't believe it?  The Chicago White Sox, with Ozzie Guillen at the helm have a combined 253-185 first half record. That includes a 2007 team that would go on to lose 90 games in what would be Guillen's first losing season as a big league manager.  

In 2004, 2005, and now in 2008, they led the AL Central at the midway point, and in 2006, the Sox had the second best record in baseball and a firm hold on the AL Wild Card.  Of course, the other side to these statistics is that under Guillen the White Sox have not been a very good second half team.

They missed the playoffs in 2004, almost blew a 15 game lead in 2005, and missed again in 2006 despite their 57-31 record at the break.  Now at the ceremonial half way point of 2008 Ozzie finds himself in that some old position.  Will he return the team to the playoffs or will he come up short?  

Both Ozzie Guillen, and general manager Kenny Williams, have repeatedly insisted that they believe this team has what it takes to win.  Williams, who has a history as a deadline wheeler and dealer, seems to be telling Sox fans not to expect much.  

But for a team that was supposed to be getting ready to dump payroll because they were supposed to be buried in the AL Central, “standing pat” is a terrible idea.  Before the season started, I thought that the White Sox starting pitching could be great.  I also believed then, as I do now, that the Sox will need to add another starter to the mix.  

While youngsters Jon Danks and Gavin Floyd have been great, and Mark Buerhle has returned to form, two question marks dangle from the right arms of Jose Contreras and Javier Vasquez.  Despite fast starts, both right-handers entered the break with plus 4.50 ERAs.  Both have been just short of terrible since May and both are getting paid big bucks to take the Sox all the way. 

Everyone remembers how Jose Contreras carried the Sox to, and throughout the 2005 postseason, but that was three years ago and Jose’s velocity has once again started to dip.  If the Sox don’t make a move they could be stuck with the Jose Contreras that was completely ineffective down the stretch in 2006. 

His current DL status only highlights the question mark.  With Vasquez it is even more frustrating.  He isn’t getting old and he isn’t losing velocity.  He just looks like a bum out there night in and night out.  He throws strikes; he throws nasty pitches, but somehow just can’t get any one out.  The Sox need him to put it together, he was their ace last year and they NEED him to get at least halfway back to that form. 

I have less hope for Contreras, whose early 2008 resurgence was a huge factor in the Sox building and maintaining their division lead.  But that just might be all they are going to get out of him.  He might be done, and the tendinitis that Kenny Williams says isn’t serious, could very well be.  T

his is the problem facing Kenny Williams.  He can say that he trusts what he has all he wants, but the bottom line is that in both 2005 and 2006, he did nothing at the break.  Though he was justified by the Sox post season success in '05, he did allow things to get closer than he wanted. 

In 2006, again Kenny did nothing at the break, despite the fact that Mark Buerhle was struggling immensely, Javier Vasquez couldn’t ever finish the sixth inning and Jose Contreras was starting to tire.  That season his inactivity cost the Sox, as Buerhle and Contreras were worthless down the stretch. 

History just might repeat itself if Kenny doesn’t go get a little insurance for Contreras and Vasquez.  It just might be time for trader Kenny to make his comeback and make a mid-season splash, under the radar style.  

The Chicago White Sox First Half records under Ozzie Guillen

2008              54-40

2007            39-47

2006            57-31

2005            57-29

2004            46-38

Total

253-185