Five Keys To The Second Half

In the first half of the season, some usual suspects led the team to a first place finish at the break. Kevin Youkilis tore the cover off the baseball and played exceptional defense, while his infield partners Dustin Pedroia and Mike Lowell continued at their All-Star caliber pace. Manny Ramirez went through some ups and downs with the bat, but contributed mightily with the long ball. Dice-K finished with 10 wins and a glowing ERA, working out of jam after jam like a magician. Jon Lester made Red Sox Nation proud, while J.D. Drew capped his stunningly productive first half with an All-Star game MVP award. Who knew?

In order for the Red Sox to put themselves in a position to repeat, and by that I mean clinch home field throughout the postseason due to its vitality and importance, a few other key players must step up and show their mettle in a time of need. With Tampa Bay breathing down the necks of the Red Sox and the Yankees primed for another second half run, it won’t just be Pedroia, Ramirez, Youkilis and Beckett that need to steer the ship towards a second straight AL East title. These five players are crucial towards carrying the load to the ultimate goal:

5. Jason Varitek
Being voted to the All-Star game by his peers was a truly sensational honor and a much-deserved tip of the cap to the hard-working career of Jason Varitek, but in no way imaginable has the Captain put up an All-Star caliber first half. In fact, he’s been one of the least productive players in baseball over the last two months. On the season, he stands at .218/.299/.354, which is putrid even for a 36-year old catcher. In June, his OPS totaled .381 and in July it doesn’t appear to be improving much at .476. Since Varitek has always been a very streaky hitter who goes through some funks, I’m going to be patient and say he turns it around in the second half with a .280/.360/.400 line, which is perfectly fine for our #8 hitter.

4. Clay Buchholz
After spending the first part of the season with the big show and experiencing some very difficult starts on the road, Buchholz was sent back down on the Pawtucket Express to work on fastball command. The Red Sox brass, along with the need to move Justin Masterson to the depleted bullpen, decided to give the prized arm another long-term shot in the rotation. Buchholz is crucial to the second half because if the right-hander can provide another feared arm in the rotation, the Red Sox will be loaded in that category, and he can fill in beautifully behind Beckett, Matsuzaka and Lester. Also, expect Tim Wakefield to experience tough times here soon; his BABIP shows the knuckler has been getting very lucky. Buchholz pitching quality innings would more than make up for the Wakefield stumble that seems inevitable.

3. Jacoby Ellsbury
If you polled most Red Sox fans before the season to give you a statistical prediction for 2008 Jacoby Ellsbury, I’m convinced most of the answers would be higher than .269/.340/.375. As most of us feared, Ellsbury has struggled mightily hitting LHP with a .605 OPS and .292 SLG. The exceptional batting eye our speedster has always featured has been reduced, also. Since posting a .402 OBP in April, Ellsbury had just a .265 OBP in June and .316 thus far in July. With his stolen base capabilities, not only is a single as good as a double, but a walk as well. The Red Sox badly need Ellsbury to play similarly to his performance last September and October. Terry Francona and Theo Epstein both desperately want Ellsbury to finish the season in the leadoff spot, but if he continues to scuffle, changes could be made.

2. Hideki Okajima
Okajima could easily be number one on this list. In 2007, Okajima was one of the biggest reasons the Red Sox won the World Series due to his ability to lock up the eighth inning and hand the ball to Jonathan Papelbon. While a 2.82 ERA doesn’t appear weak on the surface, Okajima has a 1.41 WHIP, surrenders a hit per inning and the inherited runners situation has been well documented. From my point of view, it seems Okajima isn’t able to keep his changeup down in the zone and it’s being hammered by right-handed hitters. With another year in the majors, we all expected Okajima to become more hittable and recognizable. For Oki to mold back into a semblance of his 2007 self would be huge for the second half.

1. David Ortiz
Big Papi has to be the number one single key for the Red Sox when he returns from his long DL stint on July 25. The question marks will be floating around Fenway Park: Can David Ortiz swing the bat? Will they have to quickly find a replacement? How long can we wait for Papi to recover? Will Ortiz ever be the same player he once was (that might be a bit over the top, but remember what happened to Nomar)? If you recall, prior to the wrist injury in Baltimore, David Ortiz wasn’t exactly his usual self at the dish. His April was a total disaster, but in May the big man started to come around and show signs of his former self. If David Ortiz can provide a huge power threat in the middle of the Red Sox lineup, they’ll be able to slide J.D. Drew down to sixth and Youkilis to seventh for the stretch run. You’ll be hard pressed to find a lineup stronger, deeper and more versatile anywhere in baseball.