2010 NFL Mock Draft: Is Mel Kiper's Mock More Accurate Than Todd McShay's Latest?
When it comes to projecting the NFL Draft, Mel Kiper and Todd McShay are widely considered the best of the best.
One, Kiper, represents the old school. This will be his 26th year covering the NFL Draft for ESPN, and he has long been considered the final word on the draft.
The other, McShay, presents the new guard. This will be his fourth year covering the NFL Draft for ESPN, and he isn't shy about challenging Kiper's authority.
So, which of the two is really the authority on the NFL Draft?
We'll take a look at both Mel and Todd's latest mock draft, and using my picks decide who really has the more realistic mock.
1. St. Louis Rams
Mel: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Mel and Todd agree that the Rams can’t pass on a potential franchise quarterback in Bradford. With absolutely no quarterback of the future currently on the roster, the Rams would be foolish to pass on Bradford.
My pick: Bradford. At some point the Rams need to find the quarterback of their future, and they would be foolish not to make Bradford exactly that.
2. Detroit Lions
Mel: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Both Mel and Todd agree that Suh is the right pick for the Lions. Taking tackle Russell Okung to protect Matt Stafford is an attractive option, but the Lions need someone like Suh to anchor what has been a pitiful defense as of late.
My pick: I like Gerald McCoy more, but think Suh is a better fit for the lowly Lions defense.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mel: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Once again, Mel and Todd agree. McCoy fits the Bucs’ Tampa 2 scheme perfectly as an anchor for the middle of the line. The Bucs should be very happy to get the highest rated player in the draft with the third pick.
My pick: I am sticking with Mel and Todd. McCoy has to be the Bucs pick.
4. Washington Redskins
Mel: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
The Redskins’ acquisition of Donovan McNabb clearly impacted the draft, most notably making Russell Okung the logical pick for the Redskins who need to replace retired left tackle Chris Samuels.
My pick: I would be very surprised if the Skins pass on Okung assuming he is still available.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Mel: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Todd: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Finally, the two draft gurus disagree! Mel thinks the Chiefs fill a need in the secondary by grabbing Berry, who is probably the best available talent. Todd believes the Chiefs will grab OT Bryan Bulaga to help protect Matt Cassell.
My pick: I’m with Mel. You can never have enough good offensive lineman, but the Chiefs already have left tackle Brandon Albert to protect Cassell’s blindside. Berry is the pick.
6. Seattle Seahawks
Mel: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Todd: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Mel’s got the Seahawks upgrading their offensive line with big and versatile Trent Williams. Meanwhile, Todd thinks that the Seahawks can’t pass on taking Berry to sure up their weak secondary, but acknowledges that Williams is an option here as well.
My pick: Even if Berry is available to Seattle at six, I think they go with Williams. Score another one for Mel.
7. Cleveland Browns
Mel: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Todd: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
Mel speculates that the Browns will fill their need at receiver by taking talented but troubled Dez Bryant. On the other hand, Todd thinks they’ll select Dan Williams as a potential long term replacement for current nose tackle Shaun Rogers.
My pick: I don’t like this spot in the draft at all. The Browns will be hoping that Berry falls to them, but will have to settle for Bryant.
8. Oakland Raiders
Mel: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Todd: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Yikes. Mel thinks the Raiders finally decide to go in a different direction at the quarterback position and select Clausen, while Todd thinks the Raiders select Williams to help protect whoever is under center in Oakland.
My pick: If Dez Bryant is available and Al Davis opens his trap, I have a terrible feeling that Bryant is the pick. However, assuming he is off the board already, I think the Raiders select OT Bryan Bulaga.
9. Buffalo Bills
Mel: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Todd: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
Mel and Todd agree that the Bills need to develop their offensive line before they can think about starting a young quarterback. So, while Jimmy Clausen may seem like a good fit, they both agree that taking the best available offensive lineman is the right move.
My pick: It’s hard to argue with that logic. With Bulaga already off my board, I’ll go with Davis.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
Mel: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Todd: Earl Thomas, S, Texas
Mel thinks that the Jags need a back to compliment Maurice Jones-Drew and that Spiller is just the guy for the job. Todd on the other hand believes that the Jags go with safety Earl Thomas to provide some physicality in the secondary.
My pick: The Jags pass rush was horrendous last year. That’s why I think they’ll select DE Derrick Morgan out of Georgia Tech. It may seem like a reach, but it will fill a glaring need.
11. Denver Broncos
Mel: Earl Thomas, S, Texas
Todd: Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
The Broncos will look to further improve their defense in both Mel and Todd’s opinions. Mel’s got them going with Thomas, who has tremendous football instincts, while Todd leans towards Alabama’s Rolando McClain, the best linebacker in the draft.
My pick: I like Thomas here. He could be a fixture in the Broncos secondary for years to come, and would have a great mentor in Brian Dawkins.
12. Miami Dolphins
Mel: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
Todd: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Teach
Both Mel and Todd think that the Dolphins will look to improve their line with the 12th pick, and it’s hard to argue against that notion. Miami’s line lacks depths, so Mel has them taking Dan Williams, who Todd had going seventh to Cleveland, and Todd has them taking Derrick Morgan.
My pick: I think Todd had Williams too high at seven, but that he is a great fit for the Dolphins here at 12.
13. San Francisco 49ers
Mel: Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Todd: Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas
The 49ers have a strong defense, yet both Mel and Todd have them looking to that side of the ball with their first pick. Mel has the Niners grabbing the draft’s best cornerback, Joe Haden, to fill a need at that position, while Todd thinks they go with Sergio Kindle to sure up the defensive line.
My pick: I’ve got to agree with Mel again. Haden seems like a great fit on a team whose biggest defensive weakness seems to be at the cornerback position.
14. Seattle Seahawks
Mel: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Todd: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Mel is correct in speculating that the Seahawks need help on the defensive line, and that Morgan would be an excellent fit. Furthermore, running back is a clear area of need for the Seahawks, and Spiller would be a great addition.
My pick: I don’t think Morgan will be available, but even if he is, I love C.J. Spiller here. The Seahawks run game was pathetic last season, and Spiller could have a huge impact immediately.
15. New York Giants
Mel: Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
Todd: Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
Fifteenth to the Giants seems to be a very popular spot for McClain in mock drafts, and Mel is on board. However, with McClain already off his big board, Todd has the Giants taking G Mike Iupati to help sure up an offensive line that struggled last season.
My pick: It’s got to be McClain if he’s there. He’d be a great addition to the Giants reworked defense.
16. Tennessee Titans
Mel: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
For the first time since the fourth overall pick, Mel and Todd agree. Despite question marks surrounding his intelligence and lack of experience, Pierre-Paul fits the Titans need for a pass rushing lineman perfectly.
My pick: Pierre-Paul seems to be a perfect fit in this spot. He’s a high risk selection, but could pay off big time at 16th overall.
17. San Francisco 49ers
Mel: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
Todd: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
The 49ers need help on the offensive line, and Mel thinks that Davis slides to them at 17, making this an easy choice. However, with Davis off his board, and the next available offensive lineman being a reach, Todd thinks the Niners decide to stop the Jimmy Clausen slide here.
My pick: I think this is where Clausen lands. It’s possible that he slides further and we see someone trade up to get him like the Browns did to get Brady Quinn, but I don’t think the 49ers will let that happen.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mel: Maurkice Pouncey, C/G, Florida
Mel and Todd are sharing a brain on this one. The Steelers want to return to their traditional power running game, and Pouncey is the perfect fit to open holes, be it from the center or guard position.
My pick: Pouncey seems like a no brainer here. He should help the Steelers run game immediately.
19. Atlanta Falcons
Mel: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
Mel and Todd both acknowledge the Falcons’ need for a pass rushing defensive end, and both believe that Graham is just the guy for the job. At 6’3” and 270 pounds he is big enough to be an every down defensive end and won’t need to slide to outside linebacker.
My pick: The fact that he has the size to play every down on the line makes Graham the pick over the arguably more talented, but slighter Sergio Kindle.
20. Houston Texans
Mel: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
Todd: Joe Haden, CB Florida
Both Mel and Todd recognize that obvious—with playmaker Dunta Robinson headed to Atlanta, the Texans have a major hole at cornerback. Mel and Todd go with the next available cornerback on the board, Wilson and Haden respectively.
My pick: The Texans would love to see Haden available at 20, but he’s already off my board, so I think they happily settle for Wilson.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
Mel: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
Todd: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
First of all, if Bryant slips this far and the Bengals take him I won’t be shocked. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time the Bengals ignore character questions surrounding a player. With Bryant well off his big board, Mel has the Bengals scooping up TE Jermaine Gresham.
My pick: Gresham’s stock has risen as of late, but I don’t think the Bengals pull the trigger on him. A receiver would be nice, so with Bryant off the board, I think they grab WR Demaryius Thomas out of Georgia Tech.
22. New England Patriots
Mel: Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas
Todd: Everson Griffen, DE, USC
The Pats aging defense certainly could use a shot of youth, and both Mel and Todd think that’s the direction the Patriots go in. Mel has Kindle falling into the Pats lap, while Todd sees them snagging USC DE Everson Griffen.
My pick: If Kindle slides to the Pats, it’s a no brainer. Since he is still on my big board, then he is the pick for the Pats at 22.
23. Green Bay Packers
Mel: Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
Todd: Charles Brown, OT, USC
The Packers offensive line is aging, and keeping Aaron Rodgers upright is a huge priority. Therefore, both Mel and Todd have the Packers selecting the best available offensive lineman, Mike Iupati and Charles Brown respectively.
My pick: Iupati is the best available offensive lineman on my board, so I once again agree with Mel. Iupati is a fantastic pick at 23.
24. Philadelphia Eagles
Mel: Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama
Todd: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
The Eagles secondary was a weakness last season, and both Mel and Todd have the Eagles selecting the best available cornerback. Wilson would be a great pick here, while Jackson would be a solid pick that fills a need.
My pick: If Wilson was still on my board I’d have the Eagles selecting him. However, with Wilson headed to Houston at 20, I think the Eagles address the other half of their secondary instead and draft S Taylor Mays from USC.
25. Baltimore Ravens
Mel: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech
Despite the offseason acquisitions of Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth, both Mel and Todd see the Ravens adding another receiver to their arsenal by selecting Georgia Tech’s Demaryius Thomas.
My pick: I have Thomas going at 21 to the Bengals, but even if he is available, I think the Ravens will choose TE Jermaine Gresham. Todd Heap’s inability to stay healthy leaves the Ravens in need of a tight end that Joe Flacco can rely on.
26. Arizona Cardinals
Mel: Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Todd: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
The Cardinals have a need for an inside linebacker, and Mel thinks they address that need with Missouri’s Sean Weatherspoon despite the fact that he has played outside linebacker. Todd thinks the Cardinals won’t be able to pass on the natural talent of Gresham if he’s available.
My pick: The Cards do need a linebacker, but have a much more glaring need at tackle in my opinion. Therefore, I believe they’ll take OT Charles Brown from USC.
27. Dallas Cowboys
Mel: Charles Brown, OT, USC
Todd: Taylor Mays, S, USC
Mel believes that the Cowboys’ wish will be granted, and Brown will be ripe for the plucking at 27. On the other hand, with Brown off the board, Todd sees the Cowboys going with Taylor Mays, likely the best available player on his big board.
My pick: The Cowboys really need help on the offensive line. Did you see Flozell Adams last year? With Brown off of my board, I have the Cowboys going with OT Bruce Campbell from Maryland who didn’t crack the first round in either Mel or Todd’s mock.
28. San Diego Chargers
Mel: Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State
Todd: Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama
Both Mel and Todd see the Chargers filling an area of need. Mel has them grabbing the draft’s second rated running back in Mathews, while Todd has them taking man/mountain Terrence Cody to eat up space in the middle of their 3-4 line.
My pick: The Chargers will certainly look to fill a need, but Cody is too much of a stretch here. That’s why I am going with Mel and Ryan Mathews.
29. New York Jets
Mel: Everson Griffen, DE, USC
Todd: Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State
The Jets clearly need to add some depth to an aging defensive line. Mel thinks Griffen will be a steal here at 29, but with Griffen off his board, Todd has them choosing Penn State’s Jared Odrick.
My pick: Odrick would fit into Rex Ryan’s system well, but I don’t think they can pass on Griffen. Griffen is still available on my big board, and therefore my pick for the Jets.
30. Minnesota Vikings
Mel: Taylor Mays, S, USC
Todd: Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama
Both Mel and Todd acknowledge cornerback as an area of need for the Vikings. However, with Jackson off his big board and any other cornerback being a stretch at 30, Mel suggests Mays. With Jackson still available, Todd confidently recommends Jackson.
My pick: Jackson is still on my big board, and therefore the obvious choice for Minnesota at 30.
31. Indianapolis Colts
Mel: Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State
Todd: Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU
Both Mel and Todd have the Colts adding some depth to the offensive line. Both Odrick and Hughes would be nice additions to the Colts defensive that hangs its hat on speed and quickness.
My pick: The Colts could use some depth on the offensive line, but it would be a huge reach to take anyone who is available with this pick. Therefore, I think they go with Odrick. He would be a good fit for their speedy defense.
32. New Orleans Saints
Mel: Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU
Todd: Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
With the last pick of the first round Mel likes the Saints to add to their aggressive defense by snagging TCU’s Jerry Hughes. On the other hand, Todd has the Super Bowl champs taking Missouri’s Sean Weatherspoon.
My pick: With Scott Fujita gone to free agency, Weatherspoon seems like the perfect fit for Sean Payton and the Saints.
So is it Mel Kiper or Todd McShay who possesses the more accurate mock draft?
Based on my picks the winner is…
While I agree with Todd on the final resting place of Jimmy Clausen, I thought Mel was spot on more often than not. Todd’s latest mock is well put together, but even he can’t compete with the irreplaceable Mel Kiper.