We all know the story. The Mets have gotten off to a terrible start, and most people have picked the Phillies to take the division for the second year in a row.
This is simply not possible. The only team that can beat the Mets right now is the Mets. They are making near rookie pitchers look like aces in the hole and are not living up to expectations.
With the change of management, along with some small lineup changes, the Mets will be able to turn their season around after the all star break.
If you look at the amount of people underachieving, it’s crazy, and to think all of this mediocre play and the Mets are still only three or four games back of the Phillies.
What the NL East will come down to is pitching. These two teams are both stacked with hitters. It’s very hard to argue that if all players involved were having good years, one lineup is better than the other.
If the argument is that all of the players are not having good years that just means that they are poised for the second half. How long can a lineup with this much talent remain idle?
No Phillies fan can convince me that Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Burrell is better than Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Church (for now). Even if you gave the Phillies a slight edge it would still boil down to pitching.
The truth of the matter is that the Phillies don't really have any pitching. The only pitcher who throws good stuff up there every time is Cole Hammels. I am fair and will give credit where it is due, and this kid is a great pitcher.
After him is where the Phillies fall apart. If we were to do the pitching matchups in a five game series in which all five starters from both teams pitched, it would be a landslide victory towards Flushing.
- Johan Santana vs. Cole Hammels
- Pedro Martinez vs. Brett Meyers
- John Maine vs. Jamie Moyer
- Oliver Perez vs. Kyle Kendrick
- Mike Pelfrey vs. Adam Eaton
These match-ups all swing towards the Mets. If Philly were to pitch Hammels on a different night, they could probably take one game.
Again, this is solely based on pitching, but the facts are the facts. You take teams with near identical performance from their hitters and put these pitchers out there, pitching and defense win games.
Just a note about the Florida Marlins. I am quite sick of hearing them compared to the Devil Rays in that they are now all of sudden these amazingly talented teams.
Fact is that Tampa Bay is an amazing team. Anyone who follows the sport at its minor league level could have seen this coming for a long time. The Marlins are simply hanging in there and playing competitively.
Nothing away from the Marlins, but anyone who thinks they have a real chance at winning anything more than a pat on the back is crazy.
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3 months ago
Are you serious about the Mets pitching staff being that much better? Even at the top, Ill give you Santana over Hamels, even though he hasnt pitched as well this year. Santana i'm sure will pick it up in the second half. Myers was sent down, so you can have Pedro even though his 7.12 ERA isnt exactly pretty either. The rest of the rotation for the Mets is a crap shoot. Look at the numbers. Moyer continually gives the Phils quality starts and Maine has been inconsistent. He cant go more than 6 innings. Moyer at 45 has gone 7 or more innings 4 times this season, with Maine only once.
Oliver Perez is no better than Kendrick either. You have no idea what you're getting out of Perez when he steps out there. He could strike out the first 5 batters and then hit the next 3. Id rather have Kendrick who is going to go 6 or 7 and give up 3 or 4 runs. Pelfrey and Eaton are basically a wash.
So you get Santana over Hamels by a nose and the numbers show the rest are about even.
Throw some stats up there if your gonna write about matchups.
from 3 months ago
First of all you are correct that on paper these pitchers are close to even, but your forgetting a lot in your comment.
You are right in that Pedro has a high ERA but he is coming off of a lot of injuries. Its hard to say what we will get out of him but I would take him in a big game, any day of the week. So in a series, he's my pick.
John Maine, is thought of as a solid pitcher by everyone from Joe Morgan to Peter Gammons. He has electric stuff and has not hit his stride this year. He does need to go deeper into games, but can out pitch almost anyone when he's on.
Oliver Perez is the enigma. I just wrote an article about him which you should check out. You are correct that he has that strange ability to strikeout the side 2 innings, then walk the next 6 batters. Even with this, he is a big game pitcher. He always has been for the Mets. He has been good in the playoffs, and against really good teams (like the Phillies). I would expect him to step up to the occasion against the division rivals.
Finally I don't know how you could call Pelfrey and Eaton a wash? Over these pitchers last 3 starts Eaton has 3 losses while Pelfrey has 3 wins. Pelfrey is finally learning how to control the strike zone and should develop even more over the next few years into a dominant starting pitcher.
Again, in a series, there's no question that the match ups heavily favor the Mets, even if the numbers don't back that up, the Mets have big game pitches, the Phillies have no name wash ups.
from 3 months ago
about pedro harris...i think you are just going on the fact that he's pedro martinez...and his previous years. Truth is that this might be the end of Pedro and he actually isnt underachieving but rather done as injuries has killed the later half of his career
from 3 months ago
Hello Ben, long time no see. Anyways I agree that he's not the Pedro of old. But common in a big game, he rises to the occasion. He still has good stuff, he just needs to pull a Tom Glavine and learn how to change his approach.
3 months ago
i have to agree with harris hes right the mets are underperforming but are still the team to beat in the natinal league
from 3 months ago
why thank you Nick. I'm glad someone else shares this feeling. Since 2006 they have been the team to beat, and not much has changed, except performance. Once the hitters come around and the pitchers streamline their performance they are by far the best team in the league.
3 months ago
Harris, I think that you're over-estimating Pedro a bit. If he doesn't get any run support, like 4 run buffer, I don't believe that Pedro will be able to take any game into the 7th. I also believe that he's tried changing his approach because of his age, but the number of injuries he's sustained for the past few years are results of his new approach.
3 months ago
If you're going to write an article on which of these teams have better pitching, then go on to say John Maine doesn't need to go deep into games, you may want to discuss the teams' bullpens at some point. While the Phillies have the #2 bullpen ERA in the majors at 2.67, just 0.04 behind the White Sox, the Mets are well over a run higher at 3.87. That's a significant difference. Now look to the Mets' "landslide" advantage in the rotation. 4.33 to 4.51, not to mention that Phillies starters have thrown more innings than any other team in the NL, meaning that not only has the bullpen been lights out, they haven't been overworked. Sometimes the numbers don't lie.
In that same line of thought, I don't know where you come up with this idea that these teams have identical, or even comparable, offenses. While the Mets have been hit by injuries, the core players have been there all year. For Philly, Jimmy Rollins missed over a month, Shane Victorino missed several weeks, and Ryan Howard, while having the worst season of his career, is also in the top 5 in the league in home runs and RBIs. Still, look to the numbers! Any useful indicator of a productive offense is well in favor of the Phillies. Here's one: Run differential. Phils +77, Mets -4
Finally, the Phillies just finished what was by far their worst stretch of baseball of the season. Their lead over the Mets is still 3 1/2 games. Seriously fanboy, do your homework before you write.
from 3 months ago
Hey Pedro looked good tonight...5 innings, 5 earned. Very clutch.
from 3 months ago
Again I would like to re-state this point, that I cannot stress eneough. I did my reasearch and am basing this off of second half play. The Mets have not lived up to their potential, making them a very dangerous team in the second half.
I'm not taking anything away from the Phillies, but they are not going to beat the Mets when its all said and done.
Pedro is not mentally set yet. Would you be after not pitching for almost 2 years? Give him some time and mark my words.
3 months ago
You're basing this off of second half play? Who was worse in the second half last year than the Mets? Over the last year they're a below-.500 team. There comes a point where trends start to dictate reality. It's quite possible that in reality the Mets are a team with a handful of stars, but on the whole, an OLD team that is on the decline. Sorry, but I can't figure out what you could have been researching. You're predicting the future, and honestly, all stats and trends say you're going to be disappointed.
Pedro being mentally set is not his issue. It never is. It's physically that he can't get right. The reason he hasn't pitched for almost two years is that he can't stay healthy for any amount of time. I think it's wishful thinking at best to take for granted he's going to be around down the stretch. If he pitches anything like he did last night, better start looking for Plan B.
And again, let me point out that the Mets have a lousy bullpen. Look no further than last night. Pedro, even if he is relatively healthy, is not going to be going 7 and 8 innings. Neither will Maine, you said it yourself, and you never know which Perez you'll get. Honestly, I'd take my chances with a less talented, but more consistent, Philly rotation, knowing that the bullpen will give that offense a chance to win every night.
from 3 months ago
I do not want to continue back and fourth forever but just in response to your second two comments above.
First, about Pedro. I know for a fact that it is mental. The pitching coach has mentioned it, Jerry Manuel has mentioned it and Pedro has mentioned it. The reason it has never been a mental thing for Pedro is because he's never been this hurt in his career. Every-time he gets on the mound (at least for a while until his head is back in it) he will be thinking about injuring himself. So yea, it is mental.
As far as the bullpen is concerned, I understand it wasn't looking too good last night but Duaner was unavailable in game which desperately needed him. As far as the second half, you put up these numbers showing the Mets in the second half. The bullpen however is generally among the best in the league in the second half. Heilman is perfect example. His ERA in the second half of seasons is dominant.
I understand that Maine and Perez need to pitch deeper but I'm confident in their ability to due so during the second half of the season.
3 months ago
What a stupid article. The fact is that the Mets AREN'T THAT GOOD. Their starting pitching is terrible outside of Santana, their offense is anemic, they CAN'T win close games, and their bullpen is awful. Oh, and way to throw a cheap shot at a Marlins' team that you are clearly jealous of. The Marlins are simply "hanging in there," huh? I like how you fail to mention that they are getting Josh Johnson back next week and Anibal Sanchez in a few weeks, as well. They have the best offense in the division (arguably the majors) and their starting pitching staff will be EXTREMELY formidable if Johnson and Sanchez return healthy. And saying the Rays are "an amazing team" is ridiculous. It's JULY 3RD. Their offense is still below average, and Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine will have ERAs over 5.00 soon enough. I can also assure you that Matt Garza will cool off, as will this whole Tampa Bay team. They are this year's version of the 2006 Nationals. Start out hot in the first half, and then fall off a cliff after the All-Star break.
The Marlins WILL win the NL East. Mark it down you uneducated excuse for a columnist.
from 3 months ago
Really Marlins Fan? You think the Mets pitching is terrible and their offense is anemic?
Interesting. You cannot honestly tell me that you wouldn't trade right now, any Marlins Starter for Maine, or Perez or Pelfrey. The Marlins are hot, I'm not taking credit away from them. The problem is that they match two loosing attributes, not a lot of experience (which the Rays don't have either), with a lack of deep talent (Which the Rays do have).
Take Hanley off of the Marlins, and you basically have a few streaking players and a minor league team playing well.
Good luck to the Marlins, but hey, don't hold your breath.
3 months ago
You must be one of the 3,000 Marlin fans to claim that they will win the NL East. Granted, their offense is above average when hitting on all cylinders, their pitching staff will be their decline if they can't keep the score low enough to give a chance to the offense, seeing as their team ERA is 4.54.
This upcoming Philly series will be a crucial series for an already tight division, which will affect all the teams still looking to play in October.
3 months ago
You must be one of the other smart asses in the rest of the baseball world who doesn't have a better way to insult Marlins fans than to look at their attendance... Congratulations on the originality!!!
Comparing the Mets' offense to that of the Phillies is just a joke, like the rest of this column if it can even be called that...
from 3 months ago
I agree that it is wrong to question the attendance, Michael, its not the Marlins fault that they play in a state where most people go to sleep around 8 PM.
3 months ago
Wrong.... Phillies have the edge because the pitching match ups are even enough to were it will come down to hitting.
3 months ago
The Mets CAN completely destroy every and any team. I am a believer.
Will they necessarily? No.
Do they have the necessary talent? Yes.
So what.
So keep watching. Not much else you can do to prove anything.
Hey, I hope you're proved right Harris.
Will that mean you had an airtight argument here and now? No.
Will that mean I'll get mad drunk in October and celebrate like a fool when the Mets win it all? Hell yes.
So.. on second thought, to hell with it. I agree. Wholehearted agreement. The Mets are the best team and they will win the world series, and screw yourself if you think otherwise.
Who's with me?
from 3 months ago
haha, I sure as hell am with you.
Hey when the Mets are in the Playoffs, you be sure to cheers this article, and I will do the same for you.
Nice to see that someone knows whats up in the NL.
3 months ago
Well, after last night I don't want to say I told you that you completely and totally ignored the importance of a great bullpen, but...
You completely and totally ignored the importance of a great bullpen. The Mets never threatened in the last 4 innings, and the Phils won the game there when the Mets' pen couldn't get the job done. That sure sounds familiar, last September perhaps?
3 months ago
Well look as I said before the mets did win the series 3 games too 1 good prediction
from 3 months ago
Thanks nick, I appreciate the read.
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