Fantasy Baseball: Five Guys Ready for a Rebound
The Angels made the decision this offseason to let Chone Figgins walk away. Doing so is going to open the door for Brandon Wood . Though the Angels have signed Maicer Izturis to a three-year deal, his value is much greater in a utility role than it is as an every day Third Basemen.
The statement seems obvious right, "if he hits." It is a self-explanatory statement and should have gone without saying. The point with Wood is that hitting is the better part of his game, the Angels just have not given him a chance to prove it beyond a failed experiment of 55 games in 2008.
Wood will need to get the numbers to translate to the American League, and he will spend time this Spring proving he can do it and that he belongs. Third Base is not the deepest of positions, and Wood is a better option than not in late-round drafting, especially in leagues that require a Corner Infield starter.
I will admit to being higher on Daisuke Matsuzaka than many others are. Matsuzaka has gave fantasy owners nothing last year and gave them heartburn the year before. His consistency and command issues are known far and wide. Assume, though, that there is some truth to the rumors circulating with regards to last season.
Leading up to the WBC, there is the fact that Matsuzaka worked too hard and too fast. His physique was better served for old-man softball than it was for the Major Leagues, and it took some time to get him to understand the conditioning needed to produce. Nothing about last season was good.
With an ADP hovering near 200, the upside of selecting him is far greater than the risk associated with the pick. Expect him to be improved from 2009 by leaps and bounds and to closely rival the win totals he saw in 2008. Two years of totals should outweigh one of a disaster.
It would be remiss of me to discuss potential without talking about Chris Iannetta . While still being selected as the 12th catcher overall in most mock drafts, Iannetta's potential is worth exploring. While he managed to find a way to hit 16 home runs in 93 games last season, the .228 average is low enough to make Jason Varitek blush.
Bottom line, Iannetta has shown that he has the power to provide owners 20 home runs and his role should expand this season to well over 110 games. With some better luck, his average should also come up 30-40 points, making him a decent option based on where he is being selected in drafts. This is even further supported by a reduction in his strikeout rate last season and consistency in his contact rates.
For 2010, just hope some of his fly balls come back to line drive territory.
While others are looking for a rebound year out of Alex Rios, in the outfield I would look to Corey Hart . Many well-informed people felt that Hart would be able to build on the successes he found in 2007 and 2008, but instead saw his home runs drop in half and his average fall 30 points. No doubt this was not in the original game plan.
How can we be sure? Well, his strike out rate increased by five points last season and his swing percentage dropped by nearly as much. Hart seemingly struggled with some confidence, causing those numbers to change. In fact, many of his contact rates stayed the same. His BABIP was consistent, but is down over the last two years. His isolated power has fell off last season, and we should see that get better.
Is he a .300 hitter that will close in on 30 home runs? At one point many thought that would be the case. Now, though, a .280 average with 22 home runs that can be found north of pick 200 is not a bad thing.
One other player that is coming out of extraordinary circumstances and may be missed by many is Conor Jackson . Jackson spent most of last season away from the game after being placed on the DL with Valley Fever. Jackson was able to participate in the various Fall Instructional leagues. Rumors right now have him moving out of First Base and over to Left Field with the signing of Adam LaRoche.
Owners should not sleep on Jackson. While he has not demonstrated the power many hoped he would bring to the table, he has become a very reliable two-hole hitter in Arizona. Take last season completely out of the equation. Without it, Jackson has shown he can consistently provide an average north of .290 with a consistent BABIP that does not show any luck in the final number.
Jackson will score 70 runs while driving in 75-80 and hitting 15 home runs. He may not necessarily be an option in more shallow leagues, but in 14-team leagues and NL-only formats, Jackson's skills are a nice late-round benefit that may not be on the minds of other owners.
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