Sports Marketwatch: MLB Edition

6/27/2008 4:00 PM EST

By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!  Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time. 

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

The Sports MarketWatch had a good week, with three underdogs going 3-0 last Friday (three wins for +3.95 units).  Let’s keep the dogs barking and see what the sports marketplace indicators say this week.  Note that these are inter-league games. 

2008 MLB Games to Watch: 7-10, 41.2%, -0.87 units

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Houston Astros +146 over Boston Red Sox

With only about 25% of the bets (including teasers and parlays), the Houston Astros at home look like the kind of value that the MLB MarketWatch loves: home dogs that the public hates.  Indeed, there are also indications that ‘smart money” is on Houston, with the line opening at +151 at Pinnacle – but moving down to +144 there. 

Boston continues to play well, winning about 60% of their games.  However, on the road, Boston is below .500 – while Houston is above .500 at home.  We like getting the juicy “plus odds” on the moneyline on a “live” home dog.  

Houston Astros +146

San Francisco Giants +160 over Oakland A’s

In this inter-league match-up, the Giants aren’t getting any respect.  The visiting Giants are polling only about 25% of the bets (including teasers and parlays).  Oakland looks like the better team on paper, but both teams are within striking distance of .500.

This inter-league rivalry should stir up some emotions.  Although Oakland is playing “at home” in its more-familiar ballpark, fan support might be a toss-up.  We’ll “bet against the public” in this game and grab the moneyline odds. 

San Francisco Giants +160

Pittsburgh Pirates +160 over Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Are the Devil Rays for real?  Can their ace Scott Kazmir keep up his great pitching?  The public seems to think so, betting a huge 85% of all bets on the D-Rays!  Even with this huge level of betting, the line has stayed steady at most sportsbooks.  And actually –

CRIS opened their line at Pittsburgh +165 but early sharp money on the underdog drove the line quickly down to +156. 

With such a huge percentage of bets coming in on Kazmir and the D-Rays, but the line actually moving against them, we like the Pirates a lot.  We’ll sell TB on a “high” and bet the lowly Pirates.  

Pittsburgh Pirates +160

Games to Watch (7-10, -0.87 units)

Houston Astros +146

San Francisco Giants +160

Pittsburgh Pirates +160

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at SportsInsights.com