Last night was supposed to be exciting. The fun was going to start with the NBA Draft’s second overall pick.
Everyone knew Derrick Rose was going to Chicago, but the possibilities were endless after that. Miami wasn’t going to take the kid with character problems from Kansas State, blockbuster deals were going to go down, and superstars like Elton Brand would be on the move.
A thirst for vengeance was to be born in the heart of Michael Beasley, after Riley publically butchered his character and then passed on drafting him, and new championship contenders were going to emerge.
Or so we thought. Then David Stern stepped up to the podium and announced, “With the second pick in the 2008 NBA Draft, the Miami Heat select Michael Beasley.”
You couldn’t just feel the air being sucked out of the room, you could see it. The faces of the fans went from that of a nine-year-old boy laying eyes on his first set of Power Wheels to that of a nine year old boy who put too many Sour Patch Kids in his mouth. Awful.
Still, I thought, “There is hope. Maybe the trade talks are still going on behind the scenes and Beasley will be moved by the time the fifth pick is announced.” Then came the seventh pick, then the ninth, then the 12th—and like so many times before, built-up expectations that went unfulfilled.
That’s when I realized that all the mock draft stuff I had read, all the rumor sites I had visited, all the phone conversations and instant messenger conversations I had with friends about who was going to go where—were all for naught.
As I sat there watching Robin Lopez awkwardly struggling to put his hat on the Sideshow Bob style hair, I felt completely dejected. It was at that point when it dawned on me; are drafts overrated?
Think about all the Mock Drafts we saw and read in the weeks building up to last night. Last I checked, Chad Ford had version a 7.1! The biggest trade of the night was the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves trading OJ Mayo to the most irrelevant franchise in the league—Memphis—for Kevin Love.
For all the analysis that goes into deciphering every player’s skills, talents, and abilities, and all the commentary projecting where people will go and how franchises will be impacted, the draft itself is a huge letdown.
To make matters worse, they cut to Stephen A. Smith after every pick for an interview. This had me very distressed, as I had to quickly turn the volume down with the fear that one of his uncalled-for and unexpected outbursts in the middle of his sentences would blow out my speakers.
Also, think about this. Why is it that the same teams always seem to be in the lottery—the Clippers, Sonics, Grizzlies, T’Wolves, and Knicks? These teams are like the dumb girl who forever and a day goes after the “bad guy”, and then whines profusely after she’s been cheated on for the 17th time. At some point, look in the mirror and realize that the players who turn out to be busts are a reflection of your utter incompetence as a franchise.
Year after year, these teams pick a player in the top five or seven full of promise and hope, a player to turn things around and finally make the team relevant. But here we are a year later, and they’re trying to do it again.
All that happens in the NBA Draft is a terrible team drafts a player with talent. The player either is a complete bust or a decent to good player. When the player’s rookie contract is up, there are two options. Either he is a quality player coveted by other teams, to which he gladly leaves, or he is a mediocre player whose best shot to stay in the league is to sign an extension with the foolish team that drafted him in the first place. It’s the same script year after year.
Now I know some of you are thinking about LeBron, Wade, and Melo, and how they have all made their franchises relevant. But for every star that comes out of the draft, there are ten who never even come close to fulfilling their potential.
Let’s take a look at the class of 2002. That was five full seasons ago. I think it’s fair to say that if a player is going to be any good, five years is a fair span to judge them.
Out of the 28 players selected, only three went on to be All-Stars—Yao (first overall), Amare (ninth), and Caron Butler (10th). Picks two through eight were as follows—Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Drew Gooden, Nikoloz Tskitishvili (You could see the sweat dripping down Stern’s forehead when he had to try and pronounce that one), Dajuan Wagner, Nene, and Chris Wilcox.
The rest of the draft was comprised of the likes of Melvin Ely, Casey Jacobsen, and Chris Jefferies. There were some decent players selected, like Gooden or Tayshaun Prince (selected 23rd), but given the analysis and attention that the draft got, it proved to be vastly overrated.
It would be much more worthwhile for analysts to look at upcoming free agents and break them down, because we know how they’ve played up to this point in the NBA.
You pretty much know what you’re getting after seeing a guy play in the league for three or four years. Either he is improving, or he is not. Either he can shoot, or he can’t. He is not an unknown entity.
But spending hours upon hours breaking down the positives and negatives of someone like Dajuan Wagner is not worth it in the larger scheme of things.
Don’t get me wrong—it is of dire importance for NBA Executives to know everything there is to know about a player, because they are the ones making the ultimate decision and it will impact their franchise.
But I would argue the analysis and constant talk that fans hear in the weeks building up to the draft are unnecessary and exceedingly glorified. We don’t need 7.1 versions of mock drafts.
Not all drafts are bad. Of the three major sports (football, baseball, and basketball), there is no question that the NFL Draft is the most worthwhile to watch. Teams address a whole array of needs over the seven rounds (the New York Giants of last year being the best example).
But in the NFL, teams are drafting players who have proven over three or four years in college what their strengths and talents are. The playing field is much more leveled. Is it easier to compare an LSU running back with a Georgia running back, or a 25-point per game guard from Lithuania with a 17-point per game senior guard from North Carolina State? I think the answer is simple.
The NBA makes the mistake of drafting players solely on potential rather than substance. Unproven players are drafted all the time, while the NFL sticks to drafting guys who are not one-year wonders. The MLB is guilty of the same mistakes as the NBA, but their drafts are not the front page of ESPN for five days straight.
It should be pointed out that the NFL drafting system isn’t fool-proof either. There are major busts in football as well, most often with quarterbacks. However, at least teams have a better idea of who a player is and what they can do on the field because they’ve seen them do it against common competition. The risks are far fewer.
Though the drafts are important in each of the major sports, I feel that the amount of attention they get is undeserving. It makes for great talk and debate leading up to the actual event, but the Draft itself often leads to disappointment. When you go to a concert, the opening band shouldn’t be better than headliner. That’s not how things work.
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3 months ago
I agree with you that there is too much pre-draft hype. Every sports writer and analyst thinks they have the inside edge on who is going to do what. Obviously nobody knows what anyone is going to do. I still enjoy watching the draft though to see if teams make the right decisions for their team. I even get mad when teams I don't like make the wrong choice (LA Clippers).
3 months ago
The other problem with the NBA draft these days is that the 2nd half of the first round sucks. The teams there are generally good, having made the playoffs, and therefore have a well-paid roster. So instead of drafting a role player that'll be guaranteed a salary, they trade the pick to a rebuilding franchise for a 2nd rounder or cash or they draft a foreign guy who won't play in the league for another three years, if he ever plays at all. The Phoenix Suns have turned this into an art form over the last five years and half thrown away a lot of good players in the process.
3 months ago
Agreed. All draft hype is overrated. NFL, NBA, MLB ... NHL not so much.
3 months ago
Agreed. All draft hype is overrated. NFL, NBA, MLB ... NHL not so much.
Good read man !
3 months ago
At least the NBA draft isn't as bad as the MLB draft, dozens of rounds, and 95% of the guys will never do anything in the big leagues. I like how in the NBA and NFL, at least you know the top ten picks will be "impact players" if nothing else. That being said, I don't look at a single mock draft before the reading the actual outcome. So your right, drafts are completely over-hyped and over analyzed
3 months ago
I think you make good points, but the reality is that it's a literal lottery, especially when it comes to international players who have barely stepped on a court, like alexis ajinca. And players who show potential in the ncaa but haven't made much production like deandre jordan. There's a difference between believing the draft is overrated and not understanding the full reality of the picks. It's tough to critiscize that bad teams in the nba are always in the lottery when in the nfl you have the lions, used to be browns, 49ers, etc. some of these teams have been good at various points just like in the nfl draft. It's also important to understand that more than anything, every sports analyst wants to say I liked that guy when he came out before he hits the scene big so they can test and show off their "analytical" abilities, even I do this.
3 months ago
Just speaking on behalf of the Sonics, which I think can be a parallel for many teams that seem to pick in the lottery a lot lately.
The Sonics constantly were picking in the 10-14 range. They never found a real replacement for Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp. I think the demise started with Vin Bakers 2nd year. Everything was downhill from there.
And you can't get top free agents to come to Seattle, so they floated there. Not good enough to make the playoffs. Not bad enough to pick in the top 3. And you aren't going to find many "franchise" players past the first couple of picks.
And then Clay Bennett arrived and tore the team apart, leading to dozens and dozens of losses in the last two years. Now the Sonics have Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Russell Westbrook.
You could say the same about Portland. Not good enough and not bad enough. Until they got Greg Oden, Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge.
Given a chance, most teams will eventually get out of the lottery every year. Even the Hawks have managed to do it. You just got to get lucky. Its frustrating to see that a team like the Spurs can pluck Manu and Parker much later than a team like the Bucks get Andrew Bogut, but such is the NBA Draft.
I agree to a point that its overrated. Its only every so often that it makes a difference.
Getting Lebron: Big deal.
Getting Kenyon Martin: Big whoop.
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