IDP Wednesday: Week 16

Justin CurryContributor IDecember 22, 2009

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - DECEMBER 14:  Darrelle Revis #24 of the New York Jets celebrates making a game saving interception in the closing minutes of regulation preserving a 31-27 win against the Buffalo Bills during their game on December 14, 2008 at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Al Bello/Getty Images

Welcome to the final IDP Wednesday for the 2009 NFL season. It's been fun bringing you this article every week. I hope you have found it insightful and that it helped you out throughout the year as that was the ultimate goal.

If you're reading this, you're probably in the championship and need this information more than ever as the person you're up against obviously knows what they are doing, as well. So, with that said, let's get to the picks. I've been on fire as of late, so hopefully I can keep it up for one more.

Similar to the last couple of weeks, I have listed the Favorable Five and the Formidable Five teams over the last five weeks of the season at each position and shown whom that team faces this week. I've also added who have been the best teams to play for the entire year at each position. For those not interested in the charts and just want the recommendations, I will start with the analysis at the beginning this week instead of the end for you.

Quick Note: Please keep in mind, the analysis portion doesn't take into consideration weather conditions, if it's a divisional game, or if it's a nationally televised game—all factors that have seemed to inconsistently skew the numbers for a given team.

For example, if the wind is howling, you can expect there to be an inordinate amount of running plays by both teams, divisional teams now have film on the other team to change game plans, etc., and some players seem to step it up a notch when they know they are on the big stage. With that said, all should be considered when you are planning on using a player each week. I just want to make sure you remember.

So, as I have throughout this year, I will be using the following point system for my analysis:

My Preferred IDP Scoring System

SoloAssistsSackIntFFPDTD
2144326

 


Analysis

DL

Expected Player Production Better Than Normal

Justin Tuck: Should be a monster.

Dwight Freeney: If he plays the entire game.

 

Expected Player Production Worse Than Normal

Shaun Ellis

Marques Douglas

 

MLB/ILB

Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal

DeMeco Ryans

Nick Barnett

Justin Durant

 

Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal

Larry Foote

 

WLB/OLB

Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal

Clay Matthews

Aaron Kampman

Matt Roth

Kamerion Wimbley

Jason Trusnik

James Anderson


Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal

Anthony Spencer

DeMarcus Ware

Daryl Smith

Clint Ingram

Calvin Pace

Bryan Thomas


S

Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal

Quintin Mikell

Sean Jones


Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal

Brian Dawkins

Renaldo Hill


CB

Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal

Vontae Davis

Richard Marshall


Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal

Chris Johnson

Nnamdi Asomugha

Eric Wright

 

Good luck to all of you this week on winning your championship. For those that are data junkies like myself, here is more information to wrap your brains around for you to make your decisions on whom to play this week:

(Team to the left is ranked team; team to the right is opponent)


DL

Over Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1.NYJ@IND
2.STL@ARI
3.BUF@ATL
4.@NEJAC
5.CAR@NYG

 


Formidable Five

1.@INDNYJ
2.@NOTB
3.@GBSEA
4.TB@NO
5.BAL@PIT

 


Over Entire Year

Favorable Five

1.@GBSEA
2.NYJ@IND
3.CAR@NYG
4.KC@CIN
5.@SFDET

 


Formidable Five

1.@INDNYJ
2.DAL@WAS
3.@ATLBUF
4.@NYGCAR
5.@CINKC

 


MLB/ILB

Over Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1.@NEJAC
2.@MIAHOU
3.SEA@GB
4.JAC@NE
5.DAL@WAS

 


Formidable Five

1.@SFDET
2.MIN@CHI
3.CAR@NYG
4.SD@TEN
5.@GBSEA

 


Over Entire Year

Favorable Five

1.@NEJAC
2.@MIAHOU
3.SEA@GB
4.@NOTB
5.NYJ@IND

 


Formidable Five

1.@GBSEA
2.SD@TEN
3.@ATLBUF
4.@SFDET
5.@PHIDEN

 


WLB/OLB

Over Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1.SEA@GB
2.STL@ARI
3.OAK@CLE
4.@NOTB
5.@NYGCAR

 


Formidable Five

1.@WASDAL
2.@NEBUF
3.DET@SF
4.@MIAHOU
5.@INDNYJ

 


Over Entire Year

Favorable Five

1.SEA@GB
2.@NYGCAR
3.DET@SF
4.@CLEOAK
5.OAK@CLE

 


Formidable Five

1.@INDNYJ
2.@PHIDEN
3.NYJ@IND
4.@WASDAL
5.@NEJAC

 


S

Over Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1.DEN@PHI
2.@CINKC
3.STL@ARI
4.TB@NO
5.DAL@WAS

 


Formidable Five

1.@PHIDEN
2.@WASDAL
3.@ATLBUF
4.BAL@PIT
5.@NEJAC

 


Over Entire Year

Favorable Five

1.@NOTB
2.DEN@PHI
3.@NYGCAR
4.SEA@GB
5.@CINKC

 


Formidable Five

1.BUF@ATL
2.OAK@CLE
3.@SFDET
4.@PHIDEN
5.JAC@NE

 


CB

Over Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1.@CINKC
2.HOU@MIA
3.@WASDAL
4.DET@SF
5.@NYGCAR

 


Formidable Five

1.@CLEOAK
2.@INDNYJ
3.OAK@CLE
4.JAC@NE
5.BUF@ATL

 


Over Entire Year

Favorable Five

1.@PITBAL
2.@ARISTL
3.@NYGCAR
4.HOU@MIA
5.BAL@PIT

 


Formidable Five

1.@CLEOAK
2.OAK@CLE
3.KC@CIN
4.@TENSD
5.@SFDET



You can always checkout the latest posts from Justin Curry at NumbersAndGuts.com