MLB Power Rankings 2018: Where Each Team Stands Ahead of Opening Day
As Major League Baseball's 2018 season rapidly approaches, it's time to examine where all 30 teams are at as they begin their quest to win a World Series.
MLB is kicking things off earlier than normal this season, with all 30 teams in action on March 29. This marks the first time in 50 years that every club will play on the season's first day, per MLB.com's Mark Newman.
On the heels of a strange offseason, in which most of the top free agents waited until at least February to sign deals, it's hard to know what will happen when games begin.
For now, though, there appears to be a clear dividing line between the true playoff contenders in both leagues and everyone else.
2018 MLB Power Rankings
1. Houston Astros
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. New York Yankees
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Washington Nationals
7. Boston Red Sox
8. Arizona Diamondbacks
9. St. Louis Cardinals
10. Los Angeles Angels
11. Milwaukee Brewers
12. Minnesota Twins
13. Colorado Rockies
14. Seattle Mariners
15. Toronto Blue Jays
16. San Francisco Giants
17. Texas Rangers
18. San Diego Padres
19. New York Mets
20. Oakland Athletics
21. Baltimore Orioles
22. Atlanta Braves
23. Philadelphia Phillies
24. Tampa Bay Rays
25. Pittsburgh Pirates
26. Chicago White Sox
27. Cincinnati Reds
28. Kansas City Royals
29. Detroit Tigers
30. Miami Marlins
Best Team: Houston Astros
It can be fashionable to bump the defending World Series champions out of the top spot before the start of the next season.
In the case of the Houston Astros, nothing happened this offseason to indicate they won't be the best team in MLB again. They will have a full season of Justin Verlander, who was acquired from the Detroit Tigers at the end of August, and added Gerrit Cole to be their No. 3 starter.
Sports Illustrated's Ben Reiter, who famously predicted that the Astros would win the 2017 World Series three years before it happened, said after their triumph over the Los Angeles Dodgers last November they would repeat because of their young core:
"Their four most important hitters, the first four batters in their World Series lineups—Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Altuve and Springer—are all 28 or younger. Bregman and Correa are just 23. Altuve won’t reach free agency until 2020, Springer until '21, Correa until '22 and Bregman until '23, so long from now that the World Series might then be contested between machines."
Keep in mind the Astros scored 38 more runs than any other team and finished second in homers last season despite Correa missing six weeks in July and August with a torn ligament in his thumb.
The only real weakness on Houston's roster is depth in the bullpen. They were hurt by that last year in the postseason when Chris Devenski was clearly gassed and Ken Giles lost his job as closer after giving up at least one run in six of his seven appearances.
But there's too much talent in the lineup and starting rotation for the Astros to not be back in the playoffs again this season. Barring significant injuries, they will be the favorite to win the World Series in 2018.
Playoff Team Bound to Disappoint: Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies identified their bullpen as a weakness at the end of last season, then proceeded to overhaul that group in the offseason.
Bryan Shaw and Wade Davis were signed and Jake McGee was brought back. Colorado relievers finished 20th in MLB with a 4.40 ERA in 2017. The Washington Nationals were the only playoff team with a worse mark (4.41 ERA).
For all their efforts, though, Baseball Prospectus' 2018 PECOTA projections have the Rockies finishing fourth in the NL West with a 78-84 record.
Craig Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus fought back against Colorado's PECOTA projection:
The problem for Colorado is even a dominant bullpen doesn't help a starting rotation returning one pitcher who had an ERA under 4.00 (Jon Gray, 3.67).
Scoring runs is never going to be a problem for the Rockies, but not having a starter who threw more than 162 innings last season puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen to eat innings.
Sleeper Team: San Francisco Giants
Staying in the National League West, it's hard to argue any team had worse luck than the San Francisco Giants last season.
Their .395 winning percentage in 2017 was the fourth-worst in franchise history. Their lack of luck was best summed up by star pitcher Madison Bumgarner missing three months after spraining his shoulder in an April dirt bike accident.
Bumgarner was just the tip of the injury iceberg for San Francisco. Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Joe Panik, Hunter Pence, Johnny Cueto and Mark Melancon also spent time on the disabled list.
The Giants have built their roster around veteran free agents, and they are tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the oldest average player age (28.3). Their farm system isn't churning out a lot of high-end talent, with Baseball America ranking the 2018 collection of prospects as the fifth-worst in MLB.
All of this is to say that San Francisco's margin of error is small because of age and lack of overall depth.
Yet even with those concerns, the Giants are a better team than the one that lost 98 games last season.
Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs noted that San Francisco's core group of hitters should add significant value in 2018 just by staying healthy:
"The core returning members of the Giants’ offense — Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, and Buster Posey — are projected, on average, to produce an additional win each in 2018. That’s in roughly the same number of plate appearances as 2017, as well, meaning that ZiPS is calling for all four simply to play better this season."
The Giants also added Evan Longoria to play third base. He's on the downside of his career at 32 years old, but his .737 OPS and 20 homers last season would represent a huge upgrade at the hot corner for San Francisco (.568 OPS, nine homers).
Even years used to be when the Giants did their best work, winning World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014. They don't appear to be at that level as this season begins, but it shouldn't come as a surprise if they are challenging for a playoff spot in the National League come October.
