NFL Mock Draft 2018: 1st-Round Projections and Top Prospects' Stock Watch
We're quickly approaching the NFL Scouting Combine. The prospect stock watch went into full swing in February. The film has exposed flaws in draft favorites or encouraged analysts to take a deeper look at those with high potential.
There's increasing hype around an athletic linebacker in the ACC. In a silhouette, he looks like an ideal prospect. Will his combine numbers further boost the buzz?
Wide receivers have to surpass their measurables. At this point, standing taller than 6'0" doesn't impress scouts. Add some quickness and reliable hands then we're talking about a prospect who can stay atop draft boards. An SMU wideout will need to impress scouts and team officials to remain in the top five at his position.
Lamar Jackson will arrive at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis as the elephant in the room with skeptics keeping a sharp eye on his passing mechanics and ball placement. Those expecting a team to draft him within the top 50 selections as a quarterback wait to say, "I told you so."
Let's dive into the chatter around prospects who've been hit with the most praise and criticism over the past few weeks. First, here's an update on first-round projections.
2018 NFL Mock Draft 1st-Round Projections
1. Cleveland Browns: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
2. New York Giants: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
3. Indianapolis Colts: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
4. Cleveland Browns (via Houston Texans): Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama
5. Denver Broncos: Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
6. New York Jets: Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa
8. Chicago Bears: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
*9. San Francisco 49ers: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
*10. Oakland Raiders: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
11. Miami Dolphins: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
12. Cincinnati Bengals: Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma
13. Washington Redskins: Derwin James, S, Florida State
14. Green Bay Packers: Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA
15. Arizona Cardinals: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
16. Baltimore Ravens: James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Vita Vea, DT, Washington
18. Seattle Seahawks: Connor Williams, OT, Texas
19. Dallas Cowboys: Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
20. Detroit Lions: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
21. Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
22. Buffalo Bills (via Kansas City Chiefs): Tegray Scales, LB, Indiana
23. Los Angeles Rams: Arden Key, DE/LB, LSU
24. Carolina Panthers: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
25. Tennessee Titans: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU
26. Atlanta Falcons: Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia
27. New Orleans Saints: Harrison Phillips, DT, Stanford
28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
29. Jacksonville Jaguars: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
30. Minnesota Vikings: Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP
31. New England Patriots: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, DE, Oklahoma
32. Philadelphia Eagles: Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College
*A coin flip will confirm draft order for Nos. 9 and 10.
Stock Watch
Stock Up: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
Among first-round prospects, Virginia Tech product Tremaine Edmunds' stock has seen the biggest boost. Early in the draft process, many analysts agreed Georgia linebacker Roquan Smith led the 2018 class at his position.
Times have changed. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. projects the 6'5" linebacker to go before Smith at No. 8 as a replacement for Jerrell Freeman with the Chicago Bears:
"At 6'5" and 250 pounds, Edmunds doesn't look like a traditional middle linebacker, but he's such a physical specimen that you can't rule it out. And the Bears just released Jerrell Freeman."
Kiper also anticipates the former Hokie rising above his peers as a combine standout. Scouts unbothered by Edmunds' height will talk him up leading into the showcase at Lucas Oil Stadium and afterward.
However, when the dust settles, it would come as a shock to see Edmunds come off the draft board before Smith who caught the attention of a widespread audience during the College Football Playoff. If the Bears pass on him, the Oakland Raiders or Miami Dolphins will likely take the Georgia linebacker over the Virginia Tech prospect.
Stock Down: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
Initially, many viewed SMU's Courtland Sutton as the cream of the crop among the wide receivers. Over the past few weeks, the perception has put a slight dent in his stock. There's also more attention paid to his teammate Trey Quinn, who led the Mustangs in catches (114), receiving yards (1,236) and touchdowns (13) in 2017. Jeff Cavanaugh of 105.3 The Fan expressed his viewpoint on Twitter:
NFL.com's Bucky Brooks ranked Sutton as the No. 4 wideout in the draft class. Former player now analyst for NFL Network Reggie Wayne started his top-five wide receiver list with the SMU prospect at No. 5:
Impressive combine numbers, specifically for his 40-yard time, could boost Sutton's draft projection. At 6'4", 225 pounds, it's hard to overlook him, but scouts and analysts want to see more than just a big body. Quickness and consistency with his hands should help the junior standout shed the label as just a high-end possession receiver. NFL Media's Lance Zierlein projects Sutton as a Round 2 selection.
Stock Mixed: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Whether it's on Twitter, on-air at a major network or among NFL inner circles, Jackson comes up as a hot topic. Depending on whom you ask, he could land as a first-rounder to a quarterback-needy club or fall significantly as a project potentially in need of a position change.
Either way, his translation to the NFL brings strong opposing views. ESPN's Bill Polian shared comments about Jackson switching over to wideout and received widespread pushback:
For the most part, the Twitter crowd sees Polian as out of touch. Others feel hesitant to question a Hall of Fame general manager. It's difficult to pinpoint Jackson's stock due to polarizing predraft opinions, but all eyes will follow him at the combine throughout the throwing drills.
Most would expect him to put his athleticism on display and finish with an impressive 40 time, but the critics have questions about his accuracy as a 57 percent passer over three years at Louisville.
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