Sink or Swim: Young MLB Players in Danger of Flaming Out in 2018
What's the flip side of breaking out? How about flaming out?
To put it in dictionary definition form:
- Break out, verb: a touted young player who's living up to or exceeding expectations and accelerating onto the fast track toward sustained success.
- Flame out, verb: a touted young player who's doing, well, the opposite of that.
Let's examine a half-dozen guys in danger of defining "flaming out" in 2018. A few things to keep in mind:
- We're looking at players who boast a notable draft/prospect pedigree and, in some cases, have attained a degree of MLB success.
- "Young," for our purposes, is anyone who will be 26 or under on Opening Day.
- We aren't arguing these players will be unemployed in the immediate future, but all carry enough red flags in terms of recent production and future projections to suggest their ceilings could be far lower than expected.
RF Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres
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The 13th overall pick by the San Diego Padres in 2013, Hunter Renfroe looked like an indispensable piece of the Friars' rebuild when he posted a 1.189 OPS in 36 plate appearances in 2016 after mashing at Triple-A.
Beware the small-sample siren song.
In 2017, Renfroe's big league-debut Superman swallowed a spoonful of Kryptonite. Yes, he clubbed 26 home runs in 122 games for the Padres. He also hit .231 with an anemic .284 on-base percentage, struck out 140 times and put up a minus-5.7 ultimate zone rating in right field.
The power is noteworthy, but Renfroe will turn 26 on Jan. 28. Next season is his chance to prove he's more than a one-dimensional, low-OBP slugger—a less-than-prized commodity in today's homer-happy MLB.
RHP Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates
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After an intriguing sip of coffee with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2016, Tyler Glasnow entered 2017 as a Rookie of the Year contender.
Instead, the big (6'8", 220 lbs) right-hander—rated the No. 23 prospect in the game prior to the season by Baseball America—posted a 7.69 ERA while averaging 6.4 walks per nine nine innings across 62 frames.
"This is really the first time I've failed," Glasnow said in September, per Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "For me, the biggest positive I can take away from this season is I feel like I've dealt with [failure] pretty well. That's everyone's biggest fear in baseball: to do badly. I definitely did not do well. In day-to-day life, it didn't change me much, and it was nice to prove to myself that I guess baseball doesn't really define me."
That's a nice self-help snippet and suggests Glasnow has admirable perspective for a 24-year-old.
At some point soon, though, he needs to show consistent results for the Bucs. Pittsburgh is reportedly considering starting Glasnow in the bullpen in 2018, per Bill Brink of the Post-Gazette, meaning he'll have to pitch his way back into a prominent role.
LF/RF Randal Grichuk, St. Louis Cardinals
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A first-round pick by the Los Angeles Angels out of high school in 2009, Randal Grichuk was dealt to the St. Louis Cardinals in November 2013 and made his debut with the Redbirds the following season.
Then, Grichuk teased big things in 2015 with an .877 OPS in 103 games and has swatted 46 home runs over the past two seasons. Overall, however, in 404 big league games, he owns a .249/.297/.488 slash line.
That on-base percentage leaps off the stat sheet for the wrong reason. Grichuk also strikes out a ton—in 29.9 percent of his career MLB plate appearances, to be exact.
The Cardinals acquired outfielder Marcell Ozuna from the Miami Marlins this winter. Add in veteran Dexter Fowler and 2017 breakout Tommy Pham, and Grichuk is buried on the Cards' depth chart.
He can reverse his fortunes with a hot start, but this must be the season the 26-year-old sheds his low-OBP, high-whiff tendencies or accepts a role as a once-heralded fourth outfielder.
2B Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
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Speaking of abysmal OBPs, step right up, Rougned Odor.
Yes, the Texas Rangers second baseman clubbed 30 homers in 2017. We know he throws a mean right hook. At the same time, he hit .204 with an embarrassing .252 OBP. Not surprisingly, his 61 weighted runs created plus ranked dead last among qualified hitters.
Add a minus-5.2 UZR at the keystone sack, and Odor's power becomes less a selling point and more a footnote.
The 23-year-old signed a six-year, $49.5 million extension with the Texas Rangers before last season. They won't give up on him without a fight.
Unless he learns some plate discipline quickly, however, his value won't stand a puncher's chance, and the "Odor stinks" jokes will go from groan-inducing to inevitable.
3B Maikel Franco, Philadelphia Phillies
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In 80 games for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2015, Maikel Franco hit .280 with an .840 OPS and 14 home runs and looked like a franchise building block.
After two more go-rounds in The Show, Franco is edging closer to bust.
Franco slashed .255/.306/.427 in 2016 and .230/.281/.409 in 2017. He rebounded a bit in the second half last season, raising his average from .217 to .245 and his OPS from .657 to .730, but those are not the improvements of a superstar in waiting.
Franco is 25 years old and employed by a rebuilding club, though the Phillies indicated their desire to accelerate the process by signing veteran first baseman Carlos Santana to a three-year, $60 million pact in December.
Franco is the presumed third baseman for 2018, though his name has surfaced in trade rumors, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Another subpar season, and the Phils could toss a former building block onto the utility heap.
SS Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs
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Addison Russell hit only .238 in 2016, but he smacked 21 home runs, played exemplary defense and posted 3.9 fWAR for the champion Chicago Cubs. Like so many young Cubbies, his star was on the ascent.
In 2017, Russell tumbled to earth, slashing .239/.304/.418 with 12 homers and 1.4 fWAR.
He'll turn 24 on Jan. 23, meaning his prime is on the horizon. While other Cubs players—such as third baseman Kris Bryant—have joined the firmament of MLB stars, however, Russell is foundering on the launch pad. All the tools are there, but every step forward he takes is accompanied by a stumble back.
Consider the rumor, via MASN's Roch Kubatko, that the Cubs offered a package that included Russell, center fielder Albert Almora Jr. and left-handed reliever Mike Montgomery for Baltimore Orioles third baseman-shortstop Manny Machado.
Machado is a world-class talent, but he's also set to hit free agency next offseason. If you believe Kubatko's report, Chicago was willing to part with Russell and two other quality big leaguers for one season of Machado. Not exactly a vote of confidence.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
