What Eric Hosmer Must Do to Avoid Being Colossal $140M MLB Offseason Bust

A free-agent market that's been stagnant all winter may finally be ready to dish out a nine-figure contract. The potential lucky recipient is at once unsurprising and arguably undeserving.

Eric Hosmer, come on down.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Hosmer has two seven-year offers in front of him. One is from the Kansas City Royals, the only team he's known in his seven-year career, and worth $147 million. The other is from the San Diego Padres and worth $140 million.

Obviously, nothing is final until the 28-year-old first baseman signs on the dotted line. Plus, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune has heard that the Padres' offer is less than $140 million. 

Then there's the other caveat: Beyond what the Royals and Padres apparently think, whether Hosmer is worth a nine-figure contract varies depending on who you ask.

Projections for his contract—see mine, as well as those from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, MLB Trade Rumors and FanGraphs—at the outset of the winter were all over the map. The same appears to be true of opinions about Hosmer within Major League Baseball front offices.

"In my heart, he's a $100 million player," one general manager told Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. "In my head, I'm not so sure."

On the one hand, there's Hosmer's Jekyll side. He's a four-time Gold Glove winner who also has a Silver Slugger, an All-Star Game MVP award and a World Series ring. He was never better than in 2017, when he posted a career-best .882 OPS with 25 home runs and four wins above replacement.

And then there's his Hyde side. He's too often flirted with replacement-level status (0 WAR). Overall, he comes with a modest .781 career OPS and defensive metrics that are at odds with his Gold Glove reputation.

The Royals' and Padres' reported offers strike a balance between Hosmer's lackluster production and his sparkling upside. My projections extrapolated the former to be worth $17 million per year and the latter to be worth $25 million per year. His reported average annual value would fall nicely in the middle.

Even still, there's no ignoring how Hosmer's track record suggests to take the under on the question of whether he would underperform or overperform such a contract.

And that, in turn, raises the question of what he would have to do to avoid becoming the latest in a long line of free-agent busts.

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

If nothing else, Hosmer would have to retain his intangibles. Local and national reporters alike have raved about his worth ethic and clubhouse presence. So have teammates and managers, no matter how temporary.

"He's every manager's dream as a player," said Jim Leyland, who managed Hosmer with Team USA in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, according to Passan. "I can tell you that. And I only had him for a couple of weeks."

What will matter a lot more in the long run, however, is Hosmer's play on the field. To that end, his top priority regardless of how much money he signs for should be to fix a bat with a disappearing/reappearing threat level.

Hosmer has the makings of a great hitter. He has yet to post an above-average strikeout rate and has recently become an above-average walk artist. His home runs are proof he also has good oomph in his swing. He hits a few moonshots here and there and a lot of lasers in between.

This is when he can get the ball off the ground. As these numbers show, keeping the ball on the ground is a habit he just can't quit:

This isn't news. What would be news is if Hosmer committed himself to correcting his ground-ball tendencies, which is a pool he has been hesitant to dive into.

"It's something that I can't worry about," he told Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star in April. "When I'm going good with myself, there's certain keys I focus on, and it takes care of all the other stuff. Specifically, I don't go and look at launch angles, or this angle or that angle. Whatever little key it takes for me to get going, it takes care of all the other stats."

It would be understandable if Hosmer came by this attitude by trying and simply failing to adjust his swing for more fly balls.

But to conclude "I can't worry about that" isn't a good look at a time when hitters all over have joined the Launch-Angle Revolution (also known as the Fly-Ball Revolution or Air-Ball Revolution) and ushered in the most extreme home run era in MLB history. More so than any hitter who hasn't yet joined in the fun, Hosmer has the most to gain from doing so.

While he's at it, he should also seek to improve his defense.

Andy Clayton-King/Associated Press

Hosmer's Gold Glove reputation isn't without merit. It might be easiest to notice first base defense when the guys at the not-so-hot corner are scooping bad throws out of the dirt. Hosmer excels at that, tallying more scoops than any first basemen since 2011.

But while he may be excellent at securing outs, he's not great at stealing hits. His minus-39.0 "Range Runs" since 2011 is by far the worst mark of any first basemen. Per Inside Edge fielding data, he hardly makes "Remote" or "Unlikely" plays.

Hosmer's range issue seems to stem from suboptimal reactions and reads to batted balls. FanGraphs' August Fagerstrom covered that in a 2016 article, and it's evident on plays from 2017 like this one and this one.

On the bright side, it's not as if he's some lumbering, slow-footed oaf who plays first base because it's the only position that will have him. He's a good athlete. Were he to make better use of his athleticism, he could easily live up to his Gold Glove reputation.

In short, living up to a seven-year deal in the realm of $140 million comes down to Hosmer's ability to cease being the player he's been and become the player he can be. It's a weird thing to say about a decorated veteran. Yet it's true.

It's also a rare selling point for a free agent. Most of them can only get worse. Hosmer can only get better.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.