Chris Simms' NFL Wild-Card Playoff Picks

As we gear up for the NFL's Wild Card Weekend, I can't help but think back to what it was like as a player and as a coach preparing for the playoffs. 

This week, you might hear some players and coaches make cliched statements about how they're treating it like any other week, any other game. Let me tell you, preparation for a playoff game isn't like your normal game prep.

Things are much more intense in the week before a postseason matchup, and there are numerous reasons for this. At the most basic level, there's the human factor. Players know that with only four games over the weekend, they're going to be at the center of the football world. They also know that postseason wins mean more paychecks.

This can't be understated. I know people look at star contracts and think that an extra $20,000 doesn't mean much, but for a guy making $500,000 a year, it's huge.

Things are hectic for the coaching staffs during playoff week, and players sense it from the moment they walk into the facility. With a year's worth of games on film, they desperately want to come up with some new schemes, wrinkles and plays to bring into the postseason—just think about some of the trickery the New England Patriots have dialed up in recent postseason games. The postseason is huge for coaches because this is where their legacies are built.

Of course, there's the chase for glory as well. Teams in the opening round of the postseason know they have a ways to go, but they also know winning three straight means a trip to the Super Bowl.

Things are a lot different once we get to the NFL playoffs, which is why this weekend kicks off a sort of second season. Here's how I see the opening round of the playoffs unfolding.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

When: Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET (ESPN), Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

This is an interesting matchup. When I first looked at it, I thought that maybe the Tennessee Titans could win. The more I've studied the film and my notes, though, the more confident I am in picking the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Titans can make this a close game, but I don't think they can win. The Chiefs have been a different team since losing to the New York Jets. They're playing better defense and doing different things on that side of the ball. On offense, they've gotten back to running the ball.

It's the run game that has made Kansas City more dangerous. It forces teams to come down to stop the NFL's leading rusher, Kareem Hunt, which opens up ways for Alex Smith to get Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce the ball in the pass game.

Tennessee's offense is underwhelming, and there's nothing it does at an elite level. The Titans can run the ball well at times, but Kansas City has the big bodies to slow them down. The Titans have a below-average passing attack, so they'll struggle to take advantage of a Chiefs secondary that has been questionable much of the year.

The Chiefs defense is ranked 28th overall (365.1 yards per game allowed), but it doesn't allow a ton of points (21.2 per game), and it creates a lot of turnovers (tied for seventh-most with 26).

Turnovers have been a problem for Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota.

The Tennessee defense is ranked 13th (328.0 yards per game allowed), but that's a product of playing teams like the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars (twice each) and the Cleveland Browns this season. When the Titans have played well-rounded offenses with quality quarterbacks, the defense has struggled.

The Titans don't have the 13th-best defense in football, and they aren't going to shut down the Chiefs.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Titans 21

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams

Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty Images

When: Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC), Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California

This is the best game of the weekend. The Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Rams are two of the fastest teams in football. This makes for an intriguing matchup.

The Rams have a tremendous play-caller in Sean McVay and an explosive offense that makes it impossible to key in on any one player. Todd Gurley II is the key to that offense, but the problem is that when you focus on stopping him, guys like Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods start getting open. McVay has a lot of premier toys to play with, and that makes the Rams offense dangerous.

I have a lot of respect for what the Falcons do on defense, but they run a Seattle Seahawks-style scheme that McVay is familiar with. Having faced the Seahawks, 49ers (twice each) and Jaguars, he's already seen it five times this season.

The Falcons defense can hang in there for a while, but the Rams will eventually wear it out with all their weapons.

Now, I expect Atlanta to be able to move the ball in this game too. The big question for L.A. will be whether it can stop the run. That's been a problem for much of the season, and if the Falcons get the run game going, they'll have a chance to control the game and keep Jared Goff and Co. off the field.

The issue for Atlanta is that the Rams have been able to hunker down and slow the run when they know they're facing quality rushing attacks. The other problem is that the Falcons will be without guard Andy Levitre—and this isn't the week you want to start a backup guard.

The Rams have a ton of playmakers—like Aaron Donald, Robert Quinn and Mark Barron—in their front seven.

The Falcons will be able to get some explosive plays, but they'll struggle to consistently sustain drives. Atlanta has been inconsistent when it comes to mounting prolonged drives this season, and that's a problem that will continue Saturday.

The Falcons rack up a lot of yardage (364.8 yards per game) but score 7.8 fewer points per game (22.1 vs. 29.9) than L.A. Expect the scoring disparity to hold in this game.

Prediction: Rams 31, Falcons 21

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

When: Sunday at 1:05 p.m. ET (CBS), EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

The Jacksonville Jaguars are clearly the more talented team in this matchup.

LeSean McCoy's status in this game is critical because the Buffalo Bills don't have many playmakers on either side of the ball. McCoy is Buffalo's premier playmaker. He helps out the defense by controlling the clock, and he helps out quarterback Tyrod Taylor by opening up bootlegs and play action.

Even if McCoy is 100 percent healthy, I have a hard time believing Buffalo will consistently move the ball on the Jaguars defense. Jacksonville has two elite cornerbacks, and that means the Jaguars won't feel bad about letting either go one-on-one all game. This, in turn, allows the defense to do more creative things in coverage and with the front seven.

Ultimately, the Jaguars should be able to contain the run game and shut down those bootlegs and play-action passes.

The Bills defense is sound, and the secondary doesn't screw up assignments often. Coach Sean McDermott always has his guys prepared for the schemes they're facing, and Buffalo makes it difficult for opposing teams to get chunk plays.

This could make things dangerous for Jacksonville because the Jaguars passing attack is predictable. If Blake Bortles sees one-on-one coverage, he's going to throw a fade down the sideline. If he doesn't have one-on-one, Buffalo can expect the shallow cross. Those are Jacksonville's biggest pass plays, and if the Bills can take those away, they'll make life hell for Bortles.

Barring an unbelievable game from McCoy or a bevy of turnovers from Bortles, I have a hard time seeing Jacksonville losing this game. The Bills run defense is suspect. Leonard Fournette and the Jaguars offensive line are going to have stretches of dominance—at least enough of them to get the win.

Prediction: Jaguars 23, Bills 13

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

When: Sunday at 4:40 p.m. ET (Fox), Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

The New Orleans Saints had their way with the Carolina Panthers in the first two matchups this season. There isn't much that is going to sway me toward picking the Panthers this time around.

Do I give the Panthers a fighting chance? Of course, I do. They have Cam Newton, and they have some studs on defense that can make plays and keep the game close. What's concerning is that Carolina is hurting for offensive playmakers aside from Newton. Their best receiver is Devin Funchess, and he isn't a No. 1 receiver in the NFL.

Tight end Greg Olsen isn't 100 percent yet either, so the Panthers cannot count on him to dominate like we've seen in the past.

It's going to come down to Newton making some incredible throws and big runs. This could happen, and I do expect it to happen to some degree. However, Newton isn't going to be able to single-handedly beat New Orleans.

While the Saints defense isn't the best in football, it's very good, it's aggressive, and it will create turnovers. Marshon Lattimore will be able to match up with Funchess one-on-one all game, allowing the Saints to bring guys into the box to slow Newton and the run game. Carolina isn't going to be able to manufacture a ton of offense in this game.

It isn't going to be easy for the Saints offense either, but New Orleans does match up well with Carolina's defense. The Panthers want to overpower you with their front four, but the Saints offensive line is one of the best in football. That isn't going to happen. Drew Brees will have time to throw the ball, and the Saints will open creases for Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.

The Panthers play zone coverage more often than not, and Brees can pick that apart. Even if Carolina switches to man coverage, it doesn't have the lockdown corners to excel in it.

This will be a slugfest of a rivalry game, but it's one that favors the Saints on both sides of the ball.

Prediction: Saints 28, Panthers 17