Shohei Otani's Muddied Path to MLB Leaves Worldwide Megastar's Dream in Flux
Shohei Otani is the most exciting player who might not sign an MLB contract this winter.
To be fair, Otani is arguably the most exciting available player, period. The 23-year-old Japanese stud is a legitimate two-way talent, a gifted pitcher and hitter with the tools to improve a big league roster immeasurably and revolutionize the game.
"He has that allure, it grabs your attention," Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto said, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale. "When you see a guy hit a ball 500 feet, and throw a ball 100 mph, it's a pretty unique skillset."
That's a contender for understatement of the offseason. It also encapsulates Otani's allure. Comparisons to Babe Ruth have been floated, including by Bleacher Report's Scott Miller:
"Shohei Ohtani is Babe Ruth come back to life a century later in Japan. In leading Hokkaido Nippon Ham to the Japan Series title last October as a starting pitcher and an outfielder/designated hitter, the Fighters won by virtue of both his power right-handed pitching and lethal left-handed swing."
All that said, Otani's path to The Show is a crooked, blurry line.
Under current MLB rules, Otani is eligible to receive no more than the minimum salary of $545,000 in 2017 since he'd be entering the league before his 25th birthday. Most teams can't offer that much because of international signing restrictions. He also wouldn't hit salary arbitration until 2020 at the soonest.
Most observers believe he's got the skills to warrant a nine-figure payday, but that's well off on the horizon.
Meanwhile, the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters—Otani's employer in Japan—are demanding a $20 million posting fee from whatever franchise inks their burgeoning megastar, per the Associated Press.
According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Major League Baseball Players Association has tentatively agreed to extend the pact that made such machinations possible, even though it reeks of a raw deal for the player.
Tacking a $20 million rider onto any pact Otani signs shifts the calculus. In a flash, he goes from a Black Friday bargain to a ledger-tipping expenditure.
In a way, this makes Otani's decision to play stateside unique and laudable, as Sherman explained:
"Because there is such a strict limit on how much Otani can be paid—and that he is willing to come now rather than wait two years, turn 25 and have no restrictions and (health permitted) perhaps get $200 million or more—indicates what a true recruiting free agency this would be..."
If he comes to the big leagues, it'll be with the team that offers him an ideal location, optimum eyeballs and a chance to win. The New York Yankees are an obvious contender, as are the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Outside the game's two biggest markets, the San Francisco Giants play in a dynamic city with a large Japanese-American population, while the Seattle Mariners have a strong history with Japanese players. Really, it would be easier to list the teams that won't at least kick Otani's tires, which is to say: probably none.
Right now, wherever he lands, the picture is as clear as pine tar. The MLBPA initially fought Otani's posting agreement. For a while, it seemed like his dream of playing stateside might be dashed.
Yes, he owns a 2.52 ERA and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 543 Nippon Professional Baseball innings, posted a .942 OPS as a hitter in 2017 and is just touching the edge of his prime.
He's also a test case for MLB's international signing system and a lightning rod for controversy, through no fault of his own.
"I don't know if it will be possible," Otani said of hitting and pitching in the big leagues, per the AP. "But I want to hear what teams over there say and what kind of situations might be available. Until that process has started, I can't say how it might work out."
He might as well have been speaking about his nascent MLB career. Variables are swirling like late-autumn leaves.
If Otani's primary concern were his bank account, he'd stay in Japan for now, as ESPN's Buster Olney outlined:
"Some current agents say their strong recommendation to Otani would be for him to wait to jump to MLB after the 2019 season, because that’s when he would be eligible to take offers from all teams without restriction."
As Olney correctly added, that would be after Bryce Harper and Manny Machado sign their inevitable mega-contracts and push market rates even higher.
Instead, it seems Otani wants a piece of the action now. He wants to measure himself against the game's best, salary be damned. Put a feather in his cap, even as you scatter uncertainty in his MLB future.
"The surplus value of this player is so great because he is going to be paid such a fraction of what he is actually worth that essentially he can do whatever he wants and it would still be a huge benefit," an unnamed executive told Sherman.
Even with that hefty posting fee, Otani is the winter's most exciting player. As we wait for the procedural and monetary cleats to drop, he's also its most enigmatic.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.
