Predicting the 2017-18 MLB Offseason's Biggest Blockbuster Trades
The 2017-18 MLB offseason is underway, and while November is generally more about tidying up rosters and sorting out contract options and qualifying offers, it's never too early to discuss potential blockbuster deals.
Ahead we've proposed five such trades that would make sense for both sides and could have a legitimate shot at happening as a result.
Predicting which prospects will be on the move is always a crapshoot, but these proposals should provide an idea of what type of return can be expected for the established players who'll potentially be on the move this winter.
Kelvin Herrera to the St. Louis Cardinals
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Cardinals Get: RHP Kelvin Herrera
Herrera is one year away from free agency, so the soon-to-be rebuilding Kansas City Royals could look to flip him this winter in a deal similar to the one that sent Wade Davis to the Chicago Cubs last offseason.
In the five years leading up to 2017, the hard-throwing righty established himself as one of the game's elite setup relievers. During that span, he appeared in 349 games and tallied 106 holds while logging a 2.57 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He also made a pair of All-Star appearances.
The 27-year-old moved into the closer's role in 2017, but his results were less than stellar, and a forearm strain slowed him in the second half.
He ended up saving 26 games in 31 chances while posting a 4.25 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
With no drop-off in his stuff and a full offseason to get back to 100 percent, he looks like a prime candidate for a bounce-back effort. Even if he's not acquired to serve as the Cardinals' closer, he would be a huge addition to St. Louis' relief corps.
Royals Get: SS Aledmys Diaz
The Royals acquired a controllable player with MLB experience when they traded Davis for slugger Jorge Soler last offseason.
With holes to fill all over the roster following a possible mass free-agency exodus (Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar), the front office could once again prefer controllable MLB talent over prospects.
Diaz was a revelation as a rookie in 2016, hitting .300/.369/.510 with 48 extra-base hits and 65 RBI to earn a spot on the NL All-Star team and finish fifth in Rookie of the Year voting while posting a 3.5 WAR.
However, he struggled to a .259/.290/.392 line over 301 plate appearances in 2017 and spent most of the second half in Triple-A after losing his job to rookie Paul DeJong.
Escobar's probable departure will leave the Royals with a hole to fill at shortstop, and Diaz provides intriguing upside and control through the 2022 season—two things that should appeal to a team with an eye toward rebuilding.
Cesar Hernandez to the Los Angeles Angels
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Angels Get: 2B Cesar Hernandez
Second base was nothing short of an offensive black hole for the Los Angeles Angels in 2017.
Danny Espinosa, Cliff Pennington, Kaleb Cowart, Brandon Phillips, Nick Franklin and Nolan Fontana combined to hit .206/.274/.327 for an MLB-low .601 OPS.
Cowart (117 PA, 89 OPS+, 0.3 WAR) and Fontana (23 PA, 2 OPS+, -0.3 WAR) are the only two from that group still on the roster, and upgrading at the keystone figures to be a priority for L.A.
Neil Walker is the only everyday option on the free-agent market, while Barry Jackson and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported Marlins speedster Dee Gordon is readily available via trade. However, another option the team could explore is the Philadelphia Phillies' Cesar Hernandez.
The 27-year-old hit .294/.373/.421 with 41 extra-base hits and 15 stolen bases on his way to 3.1 WAR this season. In addition, his 6.4 WAR the past two years rank 10th among second basemen.
Further adding to his value is the fact he's under team control through 2020 and projected for a reasonable $4.7 million salary in his second year of arbitration, per MLB Trade Rumors.
Phillies Get: OF Brennon Lund, RHP Samil De Los Santos
Why would the rebuilding Phillies trade a 27-year-old who has three years of team control left?
The simple answer is he doesn't factor into their long-term plans, as prospects Scott Kingery and J.P. Crawford represent the double-play combination of the future.
Even though he won't bring a huge return, Hernandez should at least net a couple of mid-level prospects.
Lund, 22, was an 11th-round pick in 2016 and has already outperformed his draft position.
He hit .308/.373/.403 with 31 extra-base hits and 20 stolen bases over three minor league levels in 2017, reaching Double-A. MLB.com lauded his all-out style of play and compared him to Adam Eaton.
De Los Santos, 23, posted a 3.12 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 with 12 saves in his first full season above the rookie ball level. The club saw enough potential to send him to the Arizona Fall League, and he has the stuff to be an impact reliever.
It's not a franchise-altering return by any means, but it gives the Phillies two young players capable of factoring into the rebuild and clears a path for Kingery.
Brad Hand to the Houston Astros
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Astros Get: LHP Brad Hand
Shoring up the relief corps is by far the biggest offseason need for the Houston Astros.
Closer Ken Giles and a number of other key relievers lost manager A.J. Hinch's confidence during the postseason, and with Luke Gregerson, Tyler Clippard and Francisco Liriano all reaching free agency there are holes to plug.
The fact the team was willing to take a flier on Liriano in the first place speaks to how badly it needed any sort of left-handed presence in the pen.
Tony Sipp (46 G, 5.79 ERA) and Reymin Guduan (22 G, 7.88 ERA) are the only southpaw relievers on the 40-man roster, and making a play for a quality lefty this winter seems like an obvious move for Houston.
Mike Minor, Jake McGee and Tony Watson headline the free-agent market, but a trade for Brad Hand is also an intriguing possibility.
The 27-year-old has posted a 2.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 over 154 appearances since joining the San Diego Padres in 2016 when he made the full-time move to the bullpen.
He's under team control through 2019, and MLB Trade Rumors projects him for a palatable $3.8 million salary in 2018. After doling out a regrettable three-year, $18 million deal to re-sign Sipp in December 2015, the front office might prefer the shorter commitment and lower salary that Hand brings compared to those free-agent options.
Padres Get: 1B/OF Yordan Alvarez, 3B Colin Moran, RHP Dean Deetz
Hand is a likely trade candidate because his elite relief skills are largely wasted amidst the Padres' rebuild. Here's what I wrote in October when suggesting the above trade package:
The Padres' asking price for Hand over the summer was described as "exorbitant" by rivals, and they'll no doubt continue to aim high given his multiple years of remaining control.
While Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley will be untouchable, Yordan Alvarez has enough upside to potentially be the centerpiece of a blockbuster deal.
The 20-year-old landed a $2 million bonus from the Dodgers after leaving Cuba in 2016, and he was flipped to the Astros in exchange for reliever Josh Fields before his pro career began.
The 6'5", 225-pounder has some serious power potential and posted a .304/.379/.481 line with 17 doubles, 12 home runs and 69 RBI in 391 plate appearances between Single-A and High-A.
Packaging him alongside Colin Moran would make two potential impact bats in this deal.
Moran, 25, hit .308/.373/.543 with 18 home runs and 63 RBI in Triple-A, so he has little left to prove in the minors. However, he's also without a clear path to playing time in Houston and could be deemed expendable.
We'll round out the package with right-hander Dean Deetz, who could develop into a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter if his changeup continues to improve. Otherwise, he has the fastball/slider combination to be a weapon out of the bullpen.
If this package sounds light, you're underestimating the upside of Alvarez.
It still looks like a good deal for both sides.
Sean Manaea and Blake Treinen to the Chicago Cubs
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Cubs Get: LHP Sean Manaea, RHP Blake Treinen
The Chicago Cubs are looking for a controllable young starter, and they're willing to trade from their position-player core if the right deal presents itself.
Phil Rogers of MLB.com listed Chris Archer, Michael Fulmer, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea as five speculative targets, and we'll focus on Manaea as A's president of baseball operations Billy Beane has never shied away from the right deal.
The 25-year-old went 12-10 with a 4.37 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 140 strikeouts over 158.2 innings for the Oakland A's in his second season in the majors. Those aren't eye-popping numbers, but there's plenty of reason to think he's just scratching the surface.
Manaea was a candidate to be selected No. 1 overall in the 2013 draft before a hip injury sidelined him during his junior season at Indiana State. He wound up slipping to No. 34 as a result.
However, he's had no lingering issues and has often flashed the potential that made him such a highly regarded prospect. Armed with a strong three-pitch mix that includes a fastball in the low 90s and a devastating wipeout slider, he has the tools to be a front-line starter.
He's also under team control through the 2022 season and won't even be arbitration-eligible for the first time until next offseason.
Also heading to Chicago in this deal is ground-ball machine Blake Treinen.
The 29-year-old posted a 58.4 percent ground-ball rate last season and owns a 61.4 percent mark for his career, which would play well in front of the Cubs' stellar defensive infield.
He pitched to a 2.13 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 13 saves in 16 chances after joining the A's in a midseason trade, and he comes with extended team control through the 2020 season.
Athletics Get: SS Addison Russell, OF Mark Zagunis
Given manager Joe Maddon's love for Javier Baez and the front office's unceasing belief that Kyle Schwarber is a superstar in the making, it would seem Addison Russell is the most likely trade candidate from the Cubs' young core.
It would be a special kind of ironic to see Russell wind up back in Oakland where he began his pro career before joining the Cubs at the 2014 deadline in the ill-advised deal that sent Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the A's.
The big question: How much value does Russell have?
He was a 4.3 WAR player in 2016 when he hit 21 home runs and drove in 95 while playing stellar defense (19 DRS, 14.3 UZR/150) and helping lead the Cubs to a World Series title.
However, he hit just .239/.304/.418 this past season, and his WAR dipped to 2.4 as he dealt with injuries and off-field issues.
Still, the 23-year-old has legitimate superstar upside and plenty of time to reach it. Even if he never realizes his full offense potential, he was still an elite defender (15 DRS, 7.2 UZR/150) in 2017.
Adding MLB-ready outfield prospect Mark Zagunis could push the deal over the top.
The 24-year-old had a .404 on-base percentage with 21 doubles and 13 home runs in Triple-A last season, and he could immediately challenge for a spot in the Oakland outfield.
Giancarlo Stanton to the Los Angeles Dodgers
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Dodgers Get: RF Giancarlo Stanton
There's no reason to think the Los Angeles Dodgers will stop their free-spending ways after they came one win away from their first World Series title since 1988.
Can you imagine a lineup of Chris Taylor, Corey Seager, Giancarlo Stanton, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Yasiel Puig, Logan Forsythe and Austin Barnes?
That's a scary thought for the rest of the league, especially considering we're talking about a team that led the NL with a 3.38 ERA and will return an largely intact pitching staff (with the possible notable exceptions of Yu Darvish, Tony Watson and Brandon Morrow).
The big sticking point in the Marlins' effort to deal Stanton will be the 10 years and $270 million remaining on his contract. However, the Dodgers should have no problem fitting his $25 million salary on the 2018 payroll, and that's all they'll be concerned about as they continue to operate in win-now mode.
Andre Ethier's free agency and the removal of Carl Crawford and Alex Guerrero's dead money creates $46.8 million in payroll space.
Not only would Stanton be a great fit in the middle of the lineup and fill a need at the corner outfield spot opposite Puig, but acquiring him would also block the rival Giants—whom FanRag's Jon Heyman identified as the early favorites to land the slugger—from doing so
The flexibility to absorb the entirety of Stanton's money would keep the Dodgers from having to part with elite-level talent, but he still won't come cheap.
Marlins Get: OF Joc Pederson, RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Mitchell White, LHP Caleb Ferguson
Pederson is an interesting potential centerpiece in this deal.
The 25-year-old hit a dismal .212 with 11 home runs in 323 plate appearances during the regular season, but he showed a vastly improved approach in the postseason and went 6-for-18 with three home runs in the World Series.
Pederson still has tremendous raw power, and hidden behind his weak batting average were strong peripherals as he walked at a solid clip (12.1 percent) and posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career (21.1 percent).
He's under team control through 2020 and is a buy-low candidate with All-Star potential.
Stewart, 26, would give the team a controllable arm with middle-of-the-rotation upside who could immediately step into a spot on the starting staff.
He dealt with shoulder troubles this past season but went 9-4 with a 1.79 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 129 strikeouts in 121 innings in the upper minors in 2016. He's also under control through 2022.
White, 22, would be the big prospect in the deal.
A second-round pick in 2016, he checks in as the team's No. 7 prospect, per MLB.com. He reached Double-A last season and posted a 2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and a .172 opponents' batting average with 88 strikeouts in 73.2 innings.
Further down the team prospect rankings—at No. 21 to be exact—Ferguson also turned heads in 2017.
The 21-year-old was a 38th-round pick in 2014 and nowhere to be found on prospect lists entering the season, but he went 9-4 with a 2.87 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 122.1 innings in a full season with High-A Rancho Cucamonga.
As a left-hander with good command and a three-pitch mix that has a chance to be above-average across the board, he suddenly looks like a lot more than just organizational depth.
That type of return while unloading the entirety of Stanton's contract will be exactly what the Marlins' new ownership group is looking for this winter.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
