MLB Trade Deadline 2017: B.S. Meter, Predictions on Last-Minute Rumors
A never-ceasing supply of information has bombarded MLB fans before Monday's non-waiver trade deadline. Some rumors will prepare onlookers for upcoming moves. Others are just a load of malarkey.
Any hot-stove savant must study the landscape carefully to sniff out the baseless gossip from the noteworthy nuggets. This goes beyond the obvious first step of not falling for a phony Twitter account.
Following the right sources is crucial. So is staying informed and reading between the lines instead of taking one sentence out of context.
The rumor mill was in overdrive during the weekend. Friday's scoop turned moot Saturday, and Sunday spun an entirely different tale. While nobody should take rumors for gospel, some trade gossip will enhance fans' understanding of teams' interests and ongoing negotiations.
Let's look at some of baseball's recent rumors to decipher the telling tidbits from the red herrings.
Dodgers 'Bargain Hunting'
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are going to make the playoffs. They can exceed 100 wins by playing .500 ball the rest of the way, leading FanGraphs to give them a 100 percent postseason probability.
Despite their routine playoff visits, they have not won a World Series or National League pennant since 1988. They have ample financial and prospect capital to add a front-line starter and/or reliever with October in mind.
Nevertheless, MLB.com's Mark Feinsand said the juggernaut is "bargain hunting" on players who won't cost any premier prospects. He later labeled relievers as their main interest. Yet Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal identified Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray and Zach Britton—the three available players who would cost the most—as their primary targets.
Teams with weaknesses don't win 19 of 21 games, so a blockbuster isn't vital to their title chances. Discount shopping, however, makes little sense when nothing on the clearance bins would represent a worthwhile upgrade.
Moving one of Walker Buehler, Yadier Alvarez, Alex Verdugo or Willie Calhoun wouldn't damage the future of a franchise led by Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. Although they don't need Darvish to replace an injured Clayton Kershaw in August, having both in October would offer a luxury for a squad with several injury-prone starters.
No organization wants to trade top prospects, but the stars are aligned for the dominant Dodgers to make a major move.
B.S. Meter: Medium
Prediction: Dodgers trade for Darvish and a mid-tier reliever.
Yu Darvish Likely Headed to Dodgers or Yankees
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Darvish makes the most sense for the Dodgers, who are the best fit for a short-term ace. With the Texas Rangers reportedly ready to sell, they make a perfect match.
According to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Jeff Wilson, the Rangers "are more sold than ever" on flipping Darvish before his contract expires at the end of the year. He identified the Dodgers and New York Yankees as the top two landing spots.
MLB.com's TR Sullivan added a third mystery team to the mix. The Dallas Morning News' Evan Grant speculated on the Cleveland Indians being the unknown club making a late push for the 30-year-old, who sports a career 3.42 ERA. Fox Sports' Jon Morosi supported Grant's suspicion.
Any teams trying to land Darvish can thank the Baltimore Orioles, who beat the Rangers in six of seven second-half encounters. Texas trails the Kansas City Royals by 5.5 games for the final wild-card spot, so expect some contender to snag a front-line starter Monday.
For a team supposedly focused on long-term success, renting Darvish would be a short-sighted way for the Yankees to capitalize on their stacked farm system. ESPN.com's Buster Olney said they aren't too invested in talks with Texas.
Keep an eye on Cleveland, but the Dodgers look like the favorites to bring Darvish on board.
B.S. Meter: Low
Prediction: Rangers trade Darvish to Dodgers and try to bring him back as a free agent.
Justin Verlander Staying Put
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A popular source of trade chatter, Justin Verlander probably isn't going anywhere.
Acording to FanRag Sports' Jon Heyman, the 34-year-old ace will remain with the Detroit Tigers "barring a...last-second turnabout." A source assigned the move a "low probability" to Rosenthal.
While the Tigers faded from the playoff picture after trading J.D. Martinez to the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 18, a Verlander deal would be tougher to orchestrate. The 2011 American League Cy Young Award and MVP winner will make $28 million in both 2018 and 2019. Since he sports a lackluster 4.29 ERA, buyers will either require salary relief or balk at surrendering any significant talent.
The veteran is gradually rebounding from a rough patch, tallying a 2.25 ERA in his past five starts. If he finishes strong like last year, when he nearly soared to another Cy Young Award, talks should gain traction during the offseason.
It would take a major change of heart from the Tigers or an eager buyer to up that timeline to Monday.
B.S. Meter: Low
Prediction: Verlander stays with the Tigers, but talks resurface in the offseason.
Blue Jays Entertaining Offers for J.A. Happ
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Having fallen to 49-56 with a minus-85 run differential, the Toronto Blue Jays should wave goodbye to any playoff hopes. While they could earnestly start a rebuilding phase by shopping Josh Donaldson, they seem more likely to sell Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano for whatever value remains.
They have at least opened the door to offers for J.A. Happ, according to Heyman. Yet Heyman said any deal would have 2018 in mind.
If they're looking for short-term assets, why would they trade Happ? Despite taking a step back, he remains a viable starter with a 4.15 ERA. Any team will be hard-pressed to find a free-agent hurler of his caliber for the $13 million he will earn next season.
It sounds like Toronto is giving buyers the opportunity to overpay. The Blue Jays can't delay a complete teardown for much longer, so they should seriously consider all inquiries for someone who submitted a 3.18 ERA last year.
This, however, sounds like no more than lip service so they can say they tried when nobody offers the major league contributors they seek.
B.S. Meter: High
Prediction: Blue Jays don't come close to trading Happ and settle for less next summer.
Astros Aiming for Bullpen Help
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The Houston Astros, like the Dodgers, are planning for October. Even with Carlos Correa and George Springer sidelined, they won't worry about losing a towering 16-game lead in the American League West.
A month ago, onlookers looked for them to pursue a significant starter, yet the rotation has grown stronger without any acquisitions. Brad Peacock has emerged as an impact arm, and Mike Fiers is on fire. Charlie Morton, Collin McHugh and Dallas Keuchel have all returned from the disabled list, so they have turned their attention to the bullpen.
Long viewed as a logical fit for the Oakland Athletics' Sonny Gray, Rosenthal said the Astros are no longer a serious suitor for his services. They're instead heavily targeting the Baltimore Orioles' Zach Britton, per Heyman and Morosi. Heyman also mentioned the San Diego Padres' Brad Hand as a player of interest.
Houston could use baseball's fourth-best farm system to acquire a late-inning teammate for Chris Devenski and Ken Giles. If it wasn't their top priority before, it should be after placing Will Harris on the disabled list two days after activating him.
Bullpens are essential to postseason success, and Houston could transform a decent unit into a great one by landing any of those marquee southpaws. They're best positioned to pay a high asking price for Britton, who pitched on back-to-back days during the weekend for the first time since returning from the disabled list.
B.S. Meter: Low
Prediction: Astros acquire Britton.
Padres Willing to Hold On to Brad Hand
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Hand is a major catch. If no suitor realizes it, the San Diego Padres might keep one of the deadline's top trade targets.
Chatter has spread about Padres general manager A.J. Preller's requesting the moon for his left-handed reliever. Heyman reported that Preller inquired about Gleyber Torres, MLB.com's No. 3 prospect. As one executive told Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan, "I don't think the Dodgers would ask more for [Clayton] Kershaw than A.J. is for Brad Hand."
On Sunday, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick said there's a gap between San Diego's asking price and what teams are willing to give. He wrote earlier that "offers need to ramp up" for the Padres to move him.
One could take that as Preller's threatening to pull Hand off the block as a bluff. Then again, leverage is the only reason to shop someone in his prime with two years of arbitration remaining.
Was he all that unreasonable to ask for Torres a year after the Cubs sent him to the Yankees to rent Aroldis Chapman? Over the past two years, Hand ranks third in strikeouts and seventh in WAR among relievers. He's an elite option who will pitch for a steep discount through 2019. The arbitration process contains the only people left in baseball who still think saves define bullpen success.
Preller probably dangled him after witnessing the market for Chapman and Andrew Miller last year. Hand was never going to command their costs, but the Padres should stand pat if nobody offers a significant return.
Talks of keeping Hand amount to more than a pure negotiation ploy.
B.S. Meter: Mild
Prediction: Padres keep Hand, who boosts his trade stock with a dominant second half as their closer.
Yankees, Athletics Hit Impasse on Sonny Gray Talks
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On Saturday night and Sunday morning, multiple reports indicated a high probability of the Yankees acquiring Sonny Gray. By Sunday afternoon, negotiations were said to have hit a wall.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported both teams were optimistic over finalizing a swap. A source expressed confidence of their completing a deal, per Olney.
Later in the day, however, the New York Post's Joel Sherman offered a different prognosis. He wrote that, while the Yankees remain the favorites to land the 27-year-old starter, neither Yankees general manager Brian Cashman nor Athletics VP of baseball operations Billy Beane is certain to budge.
"I think Billy is perfectly willing to go into the winter holding on to Sonny if he doesn't get what he wants," an executive told Sherman.
Gray has two more years under team control, but a high demand for affordable pitching gives Beane the perfect opportunity to bolster his farm system. After a nightmarish 2016, waiting until the offseason is a bet the small-market franchise should be wary of making.
The Yankees, meanwhile, are still seeking an impact arm despite acquiring Jaime Garcia from the Minnesota Twins. Cashman could get Gray without giving up top prospects Torres or Clint Frazier.
Both teams are probably posturing, so expect someone to blink before the deadline.
B.S. Meter: High
Prediction: Yankees and Athletics settle on a last-minute deal for Gray led by infielder Jorge Mateo and outfielder Estevan Florial.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs. Salary information obtained via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
