Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The Washington Nationals (59-38) return home for the first time since July 9 when they host the Milwaukee Brewers (53-48) in the opener of a three-game series Tuesday as small favorites at sports betting sites.

The Nationals just completed a nine-game road trip at 7-2 to kick off the second half of the season.

Betting line: The Nationals opened as -139 favorites (wager $139 to win $100); the total is at 10 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 5.0-3.2, Nationals (MLB picks on every game)

Why the Brewers can pay on the MLB lines

While Washington has caught fire after the MLB All-Star break, Milwaukee has headed in the opposite direction. Still, the Brewers reside in first place by a half-game over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central after the defending World Series champions lost 3-1 to the Chicago White Sox on Monday.

Milwaukee might be just 3-7 since the break, but Zach Davies (11-4, 4.76 ERA) has been one of the team's best pitchers this year, with his last loss taking place back on June 20. Davies is 4-0 in five starts since then, and he is coming off a no-decision against the Pittsburgh Pirates last Wednesday when he did not allow an earned run in seven innings. Unfortunately, the Brewers suffered a 3-2 road loss.

Why the Nationals can pay on the MLB lines

Veteran Edwin Jackson (1-0, 4.50) will toe the rubber for the Nationals after picking up a victory last time out on the road versus the Los Angeles Angels. Jackson gave up two runs and three hits in seven innings with no walks and three strikeouts.

The 33-year-old journeyman was let go by the Baltimore Orioles and will be making his first home start in his second stint in Washington, one of 12 teams he has played with in 15 years. In 2012, Jackson went 6-6 with a 3.35 ERA at Nationals Park, and before he was called up from Triple-A Syracuse this time around he surrendered only one earned run in 20.1 innings.

Smart betting pick

Despite his recent success in the minors it is hard to trust Jackson as a favorite in this spot. Sure, he is pitching for the superior team in this matchup, but Davies is the better player, and Milwaukee needs this game a lot more than Washington.

The Brewers have also won four of the past six meetings with the Nats, including two of the last three at Washington. Take Milwaukee in an upset at online betting sites.

MLB betting trends

Milwaukee is 1-7 in its last eight games.

Milwaukee is 1-6 in its last seven games on the road.

Washington is 8-2 in its last 10 games.

All MLB lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.