One Reason Each MLB Contender Won't Win the World Series
With varying degrees of hope, each team in Major League Baseball set out to win the 2017 World Series. Roughly halfway through the regular season, only around half of them remain in the hunt.
Here's why each of the remaining contenders will fail.
OK, fine. That's a tad misleading. Somebody is going to win the World Series. That's just how it works.
But for every contender—defined here as teams within five games of a playoff spot, plus the defending champions—still pursuing that goal, success is hardly guaranteed for a variety of reasons. The aim here is to look strictly at the biggest obstacle each must confront moving forward.
Going in order from worst record to best record, let's get to it.
Note: All records and stats are current through Monday, July 3.
Texas Rangers: They No Longer Dominate Close Games
1 of 17
Record: 40-43
Postseason baseball is no cakewalk for anyone. To win the World Series, being able to win close games is an absolute must.
The Texas Rangers could do that last year. They won an American-League-high 95 games largely on the strength of their 36-11 record in one-run games.
This year, however, they're just 6-14 in one-run games.
This downfall was inevitable, as they never were going to sustain that high rate in such a volatile category. It's also happening because their bullpen went from capable to horrid, ranking 26th in MLB with a 4.66 ERA.
The Rangers could use the trade deadline to fix their pen. But even if they do, they wouldn't be out of the woods. They would still have a lack of starting pitching depth and an offense more punchless than its run scoring indicates, both of which may also make a difference in close games.
Baltimore Orioles: Their Bullpen Won't Be Enough
2 of 17
Record: 40-42
Rob Arthur of FiveThirtyEight produced a study that confirmed what many suspected last October: Yes, relief pitchers are becoming more important in the postseason.
Bully for the Baltimore Orioles. Their bullpen only has a 4.26 ERA, but it's not as bad as it seems. Their top five relievers have combined for a 2.79 ERA. Not included is two-time All-Star closer Zach Britton, who's due off the disabled list this week.
"Having him back is going to be huge, and I just think everybody knows that when he gets back, we can have the team back to full strength," fellow reliever Brad Brach told Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun.
Except, that's wishful thinking.
A better bullpen won't get the Orioles' disappointing offense to snap to attention. Nor is it going to fix a starting rotation that has an AL-worst 5.65 ERA. If those problems remain once Britton returns, Baltimore's bullpen won't be enough.
Seattle Mariners: James Paxton Can't Pitch Every Game
3 of 17
Record: 41-43
The Seattle Mariners have enough offense to go deep into October. They also have at least one postseason-caliber ace in James Paxton, who broke out with a 3.79 ERA in 20 starts last season and is now carrying on with a 3.27 ERA through 13 starts this season. FanGraphs WAR ranks him as one of the AL's top 10 pitchers.
Now, if only the Mariners had more pitchers like Paxton.
Their pitching staff ranks 20th in ERA at 4.58, and they're lucky they're not even lower. Outside of Paxton is a hodgepodge of over-the-hill veterans (Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Yovani Gallardo) and unimpressive upstarts.
Hypothetically, the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline could fix this. But B/R's Joel Reuter ranks Seattle's farm system as only the No. 22 system in baseball. There's not a lot there for them to barter with. To boot, their current standing limits their incentive to go all-in.
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Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout Can't Do Everything
4 of 17
Record: 43-44
Given that the Los Angeles Angels were only 24-23 with Mike Trout in the lineup, it's a good sign that they've gone 19-21 without him this season. If anything, this run indicates Trout will no longer have to do it all on offense once he returns from his thumb injury.
Despite Trout's 1.203 OPS to start the season, the Angels offense had just a .692 OPS before he went down. Without him, that number has crept up to .705.
And now for the bad news: That number qualifies the Angels offense as one of the worst in MLB. Unless they clone Trout, they still won't be able to hit teams into submission.
Nor will their starting pitching lead the way. The fact that Angels starters rank 12th with a 4.38 ERA greatly overstates their quality. Theirs is a rotation without a single standout starter, which would hurt them even more in the postseason than it has so far in the regular season.
Chicago Cubs: Everything That Was Great Is Now Mediocre
5 of 17
Record: 41-41
The 2016 Chicago Cubs were good at everything. So much so that they ranked:
- Third in runs per game
- First in starting ERA
- Eighth in bullpen ERA
- Fifth in baserunning runs
- First in defensive efficiency
It's no wonder they won the World Series. And given the construction of the team, it was fair to expect more of the same in 2017.
Instead, only their bullpen has been better, ranking fifth in ERA. The other ranks have been downgraded to 21st, 14th, ninth and sixth, respectively.
To be fair, the Cubs still look good on paper. Most of the major contributors to last year's championship run are still around. Because of that, it remains hard to shake the notion that they're a sleeping giant.
That notion is no longer easy to believe in, though. For while there are many reasons why they're in trouble, the overarching one is that they're just not the same team as they were in 2016.
Tampa Bay Rays: Their Bullpen Can't Be Trusted
6 of 17
Record: 43-41
The Tampa Bay Rays are sneaky good. Their lineup is loaded with quality hitters, and their rotation is anchored by Chris Archer and supported by Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi.
They're just missing one big ingredient for postseason success: a shutdown bullpen.
Tampa Bay relievers rank 19th with a 4.32 ERA, and even that overstates how effective they've been. Their poor performances have tended to come at the worst times, as no AL bullpen has committed more meltdowns (just what it sounds like) than they have.
The Rays have tried everything to fix this problem, using 18 different pitchers in relief. Yet the problem remains, which is a strong indication they must be active at the trade deadline.
Prices for relievers are high this time of year, however. So whatever the Rays do at the deadline, odds are it won't be enough.
Minnesota Twins: Their Bullpen Is Just Plain Bad
7 of 17
Record: 42-40
The Minnesota Twins are contending because they have a quietly deep lineup, a much-improved defense and a starting rotation anchored by solid arms.
Yet their bullpen is doing everything it can to sabotage the effort.
Minnesota's bullpen has a 4.96 ERA that ranks 28th in MLB. One of its defining characteristics is its lack of shutdown arms. To wit: Its strikeout rate of 7.2 per nine innings ranks dead last.
The Twins can indeed seek upgrades at the trade deadline, but general manager Thad Levine had a word of warning about that when he spoke to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com: "We're probably not going to be inclined to spend lavishly on short-term assets."
That would take the Twins out of the market for rental relievers, which would put a cap on how far they can go to fix what would be a serious disadvantage in October.
Kansas City Royals: They Don't Have Enough Offense
8 of 17
Record: 42-40
Following World Series runs in 2014 and 2015, the Kansas City Royals are going for a last hurrah in 2017. But they don't have enough offense to get there.
This claim would have been more obvious back in May. But since posting a .600 OPS in a 10-20 start, Royals hitters have rebounded with a .780 OPS during the club's 32-20 surge.
But if a team is never as bad as it looks when it's cold and never as good as it looks when it's hot, then the true quality of the Royals offense is somewhere in between these two extremes.
Besides, it's hard to discern how it would lead the way in October.
It's not a power-hitting offense, as it ranks 22nd in slugging percentage. Nor is it any longer an offense that specializes in making contact, as it has only the 21st-lowest strikeout rate. Without either of these specialties, it would be out of its depth in the postseason.
Milwaukee Brewers: Their Bullpen Needs More Than Corey Knebel
9 of 17
Record: 45-40
The Milwaukee Brewers can definitely hit. And while they're less known for their pitching, Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson have become an underrated one-two punch.
It's a shame their bullpen can only brag about Corey Knebel.
With a 1.13 ERA and a rate of 15.4 strikeouts per nine innings, he got a much-deserved All-Star nod. But the Brewers bullpen has just a 4.67 ERA beside him, and his presence hasn't stopped it from blowing games. No bullpen has melted down more often.
Because they're in first place in the NL Central, the Brewers do have incentive to go all-out at the trade deadline. But they're only scratching the surface of a bright future, and owner Mark Attanasio told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that there's "no pressure" to divert from the big picture.
If that's an indication they're going to stand pat, their bullpen will remain a problem.
New York Yankees: Who Will Be Their Ace?
10 of 17
Record: 44-37
The New York Yankees haven't been playing well recently. Both their offense and their pitching deserve blame for that.
But nobody should be saying the sky is falling. The Yankees lineup remains well-stocked with quality hitters. Their pitching staff is backed by a deep bullpen and led by a decent rotation.
The reason their rotation is only "decent," however, is that it's hard to see who's supposed to be leading it.
The job belonged to Masahiro Tanaka by default, but he has struggled for much of the year. True to form, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia have been inconsistent. Luis Severino (an All-Star) and Jordan Montgomery have been standouts, but they figure to have limited lasting power in their first full seasons as MLB starters.
All of this uncertainty shouldn't cost the Yankees a trip to the postseason. But once they're up against aces like Chris Sale, Corey Kluber and Dallas Keuchel, it'll bite them.
Cleveland Indians: They Don't Know Which Offense Will Show Up
11 of 17
Record: 44-37
The Cleveland Indians have been up and down in their encore to their 2016 World Series run. But their deep lineup, Corey Kluber-led rotation and dominant bullpen are all reasons to expect they'll be fine.
There is a catch, though: Their deep lineup has trouble producing results.
With a .768 OPS that ranks 10th in MLB, Cleveland should be one of baseball's top run-scoring teams. But the Indians' mark of 4.81 runs per game is barely above the league average.
The trouble is that their offense comes and goes. Break its rolling OPS into 10-game samples, and that reveals an ongoing pattern hotness and coldness.
Put simply: Their bats are about as inconsistent as they seem. It's hard to count on such an offense going far in a low run-scoring environment like the postseason.
Colorado Rockies: Their Lousy Offense Will Be Exposed
12 of 17
Record: 49-36
The words "lousy offense" don't belong anywhere near a sentence pertaining to the Colorado Rockies. Throughout their 25 seasons of existence, offense generally hasn't been a problem for them.
On the surface, it isn't this season, either. The Rockies are averaging 5.01 runs per game, good for seventh in MLB.
Dig a little deeper, though, and the picture gets uglier.
The Rockies become one of baseball's worst offensive teams when they go on the road, ranking 27th in road OPS. That points to how much they're relying on Coors Field, which in turn points to how, per weighted runs created plus, this is the worst Rockies offense ever after adjusting for all factors.
The Rockies' pitchers have been able to cover for their hitters to this point. But that isn't a sustainable model for success in Colorado, so they'll be lucky to even make it to October.
Boston Red Sox: They'll Wish They Had More Home Run Hitters
13 of 17
Record: 48-35
Things are going well for the Boston Red Sox. They're on a winning streak that has padded a hard-won lead in the AL East.
Yet they're still struggling to hit home runs.
The Red Sox cranked only 15 home runs in 24 games in April, an average of just 0.63 per game. They've been better since then, but only to the tune of 1.15 home runs per game. That's short of this year's record-high average of 1.26 per game.
Conventional wisdom says that this won't matter come October, as home runs become harder to come by and thus less important. But that wasn't true last October, which capped off a homer-happy year. With homers now flying at record rates, it probably won't be true this October as well.
That will put the Red Sox at a natural disadvantage with scoring quick and easy runs.
Washington Nationals: Their Bullpen Will Get Them One Way or Another
14 of 17
Record: 49-34
The Washington Nationals are an excellent team with a "no good, very bad, terrible" bullpen.
Washington relievers rank dead last with a 5.16 ERA and are third-to-last in ninth-inning ERA at 5.58. Proven closers may be overrated, but you can't blame Nationals manager Dusty Baker for wishing he had one.
"I told you back in March that the save-by-committee approach doesn't really work," he said last month, per ESPN.com's Eddie Matz. "Remember I told y'all that? I honestly feel that a bona fide closer would put everybody in a position where they should be."
It's all but a given that the Nationals will address their bullpen at the deadline. But with a problem this big, whatever solutions they find could be too little, too late.
If their bullpen doesn't sink their World Series hopes on its own, its effect on the rotation could do the trick. It's been so unreliable that Baker has had to ask his starters to throw more pitches than everyone else's starters. All those pitches could have adverse effects come October.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Their Lack of Offensive Depth Will Be Exposed
15 of 17
Record: 52-31
A laughingstock just last season, the Arizona Diamondbacks now look like a tough playoff matchup. They have a high-powered offense, a rotation headed by All-Stars Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray and a bullpen that ranks among the top five in ERA.
About that offense, though...
In ranking fifth in MLB both with its .782 OPS and its 5.20 runs per game, it sure looks the part of an elite offense. But like the Rockies, the entire offense becomes downright bad away from home.
Some of that has to do with how they're spoiled at Chase Field, where fly balls and line drives are carrying better than they are at other parks. The road also exposes the lack of depth in Arizona's lineup. Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb are only two of a short stack of above-average regulars.
An offense like that won't last long in October.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Their Bullpen Will Be Worn Out
16 of 17
Record: 55-29
They don't have the best record, but the Los Angeles Dodgers might be the best team in baseball anyway. For reference, see their league-best plus-153 run differential.
Thus, the only thing to do here is pick a nit with their bullpen.
It's been terrific to this point, posting a 2.89 ERA that ranks third in MLB. Nor has it been overworked, as it ranks 14th with 280.2 innings.
However, it's not hard to imagine the Dodgers bullpen being overworked later.
Ever with Clayton Kershaw averaging 99 pitches and 6.8 innings per start, Dodgers starters as a whole are averaging only 89 pitches and 5.6 innings per start. Besides Kershaw, their hurlers are only good for five or six innings a pop.
The team is excelling despite that for now. But if the pattern holds into October, the Dodgers will risk running their best relievers into the ground.
Houston Astros: The Little Things Will Get Them
17 of 17
Record: 56-27
The Houston Astros are on pace to win 109 games, so finding faults with them is damn near impossible.
Their offense is both explosive and deep. Their starting rotation isn't as deep, but it should have All-Stars Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. up top come October. Their bullpen doesn't have a strong ERA but has strong enough peripherals to rank first in FanGraphs' WAR.
But as much as the Astros might sound like this year's Cubs, they're not.
Remember how that Cubs team was good at everything down to baserunning and defense? These Astros aren't. They rank 26th in baserunning runs and 17th in defensive efficiency.
They've run roughshod over the competition anyway, of course. But October is a time when every little thing is magnified. It's just the thing to expose what flaws the Astros have.
Data courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant.
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