2017 MLB Playoff Chances for Every Team at the Start of Spring Training
Not all MLB divisions are created equal.
Consider the National League Central during the 2015 season.
The St. Louis Cardinals (100-62) won the division with the best record in the majors, leaving the Pittsburgh Pirates (98-64) and Chicago Cubs (97-65) to meet in the NL Wild Card Game, despite the fact that they had the second- and third-best records in baseball.
Meanwhile, an 88-win Texas Rangers team won the AL West and avoided having to play the winner-take-all game prior to the division series as a result.
That's how things play out sometimes.
Something our leaguewide power rankings don't take into account is the strength of a team's division.
For example, the Houston Astros claimed the No. 5 spot in our most recent rankings, but with two other perceived contenders in the AL West—the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners—they have a bit tougher road ahead than someone below them like the Los Angeles Dodgers, who only appear to have one major hurdle in the San Francisco Giants.
Ahead you'll find a division-by-division look at the postseason chances of all 30 MLB teams, with each team's rank in our latest power rankings included for reference.
The easiest way to look at it is that with five spots up for grabs in each league, there are 500 total percentage points available in the AL and 500 in the NL.
Who grabbed what piece of that postseason percentage pie?
AL East
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AL East
| Boston Red Sox | 75 percent | 3 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 51 percent | 7 |
| New York Yankees | 22 percent | 13 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 22 percent | 19 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 12 percent | 21 |
Overview
The Boston Red Sox will have to deal with the loss of David Ortiz, but they have also added more talent than any other team in the AL East. Chris Sale joins a stacked starting rotation, and Tyler Thornburg now mans the eighth inning ahead of closer Craig Kimbrel.
With six legitimate MLB-caliber starters and an offense that should again be among the most potent in baseball even without Big Papi to anchor the lineup, the Red Sox are as safe a bet to suit up in October as any team in the American League.
While the Toronto Blue Jays undoubtedly downgraded when they signed Kendrys Morales to replace Edwin Encarnacion, this was not a team that relied on its high-powered offense quite as much a year ago.
Instead, it was the starting rotation that shouldered the load with a 3.64 ERA to lead the AL and 100 quality starts to tie for the MLB lead. Toronto also addressed the bullpen with the additions of J.P. Howell and Joe Smith, leaving the pitching staff as a whole as a clear strength.
Still, since the Red Sox look like the heavy favorites in the division, relying on a wild-card berth cuts into the Blue Jays' chances.
The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles were both in the thick of things last season. Betting against them to at least be competitive seems unwise, but does either team have the starting pitching to legitimately contend?
They ranked 19th (NYY, 4.44 ERA) and 24th (BAL, 4.72 ERA) in starter's ERA a year ago, and neither team made a significant addition to the starting rotation.
The Yankees clearly have one eye on the future at this point, but the Orioles are trying to win right now, so there will be an added sense of urgency in Baltimore.
As for the Tampa Bay Rays, they have a chance to surprise some people if the pieces fall into place in the starting rotation, but this is a team that finished 16 games out of fourth place with 94 losses last year. They're only going to improve so much.
AL Central
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AL Central
| Cleveland Indians | 80 percent | 2 |
| Detroit Tigers | 35 percent | 14 |
| Kansas City Royals | 22 percent | 18 |
| Chicago White Sox | 2 percent | 25 |
| Minnesota Twins | 2 percent | 29 |
Overview
Anything can happen over the course of a 162-game season, but at 80 percent, the Cleveland Indians have the best chance of reaching the playoffs of any AL team.
It can't be said enough: The addition of Edwin Encarnacion is great, but Cleveland was also essentially without Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes during its run to the World Series last year, and they're all expected to be back healthy.
"I'm very excited. I know I said it last year. I'm stronger than I was last year. A lot of things are looking positive. It's a week-to-week basis, but things are going on the right foot so far," Brantley told reporters, per the Associated Press (via ESPN.com) after playing just 11 games last season while battling a shoulder injury.
Throw in a full season of Andrew Miller and the addition of Boone Logan, and this is a scary, scary team.
By standing pat this offseason, the Detroit Tigers have made it clear they're ready to make one final push for the postseason before perhaps finally starting a necessary rebuild.
The performance of the starting rotation behind Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer is the big question mark. Who will deliver among Jordan Zimmermann, Anibal Sanchez, Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd and Mike Pelfrey?
While the Kansas City Royals stopped short of a full-on fire sale this offseason after sending closer Wade Davis to the Chicago Cubs, change is coming with a good chunk of the homegrown core a year away from free agency.
Defense, speed and relief pitching will be strengths once again, but there might not be enough offensive punch or starting pitching talent for those skills to matter.
The Chicago White Sox figure to sell off several more key pieces between now and the July trade deadline, while the Minnesota Twins are only going to improve so much on a 103-loss season, leaving both of those teams looking like also-rans here in February.
AL West
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AL West
| Houston Astros | 55 percent | 5 |
| Texas Rangers | 51 percent | 10 |
| Seattle Mariners | 49 percent | 12 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 20 percent | 22 |
| Oakland Athletics | 2 percent | 26 |
Overview
To say the AL West race is wide open would be an understatement.
The Texas Rangers won the division title by nine games last season, but after a relatively quiet winter, it looks like the rest of the division has closed the gap.
Texas signed Mike Napoli to replace Mitch Moreland at first base and added a trio of arms to bolster the rotation in Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Dillon Gee.
Is this really a better team than the one that was swept in the division series a year ago, though?
Meanwhile, the Houston Astros added Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Josh Reddick to an already dangerous lineup and rolled the dice on Charlie Morton as a potential key addition to the rotation.
The lack of a bona fide staff ace remains unless Dallas Keuchel can return to his Cy Young form, and that's not out of the realm of possibility after he battled a nagging shoulder injury a year ago.
Then there are the Seattle Mariners and uber-active general manager Jerry Dipoto.
With 10 newcomers projected for the Opening Day roster, the front office was not satisfied with missing the playoffs by just three games a year ago. When you haven't been to the postseason since 2001, that's understandable.
A return to top-tier form from Felix Hernandez and a beneficial change of scenery for Drew Smyly and Yovani Gallardo will be the big X-factors, as the lineup is stacked.
There's no question the Los Angeles Angels have improved.
But are mid-level additions like Danny Espinosa, Luis Valbuena, Cameron Maybin, Ben Revere, Jesse Chavez and Yusmeiro Petit going to be enough to add the 15 or so wins they'd need to make the jump to wild-card contention after going 74-88 a year ago?
The Oakland Athletics have made some nice under-the-radar additions of their own but don't have the horses in the starting rotation or in the lineup to make a serious push up the standings.
A bounce-back season from Sonny Gray would give them an awfully valuable trade chip, though.
NL East
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NL East
| Washington Nationals | 71 percent | 4 |
| New York Mets | 52 percent | 11 |
| Miami Marlins | 27 percent | 16 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 6 percent | 23 |
| Atlanta Braves | 6 percent | 24 |
Overview
If anyone has the pieces to unseat the Chicago Cubs atop the National League, it's the Washington Nationals.
However, it will take a healthy season from Stephen Strasburg, a bounce-back season from Bryce Harper and quickly established stability from a bullpen that lacks a proven ninth-inning option for them to live up to their potential.
Daniel Murphy and Tanner Roark are coming off career years, and Trea Turner played out of his mind as a rookie, so those key standouts will need to come close to matching their 2016 output as well.
Their biggest competition is the New York Mets, but they have even more question marks.
Matt Harvey (thoracic outlet surgery), Jacob deGrom (ulnar nerve surgery) and Steven Matz (elbow bone spurs removal) are all working their way back from offseason surgeries, and the team will lean heavily on the starting rotation.
Bringing back Yoenis Cespedes was a huge move, but the Mets made no significant additions to an offense that ranked 25th in the majors in runs scored. Are a full season of Jay Bruce and a healthy Lucas Duda going to be enough?
It was a bold strategy by the Miami Marlins to focus their attention on upgrading the bullpen in free agency as opposed to addressing the starting rotation. The result is a relief corps that might be the best in the NL and a rotation that will likely use them as a crutch.
If Giancarlo Stanton can stay healthy alongside breakout star Christian Yelich, the offense should score plenty of runs. If the rotation outperforms expectations, that 27 percent chance could look entirely too low in a few months.
The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are still a couple of years away as they continue to rebuild, but both teams made nice veteran additions in free agency, and they should both be able to improve on last year's win totals of 68 and 71, respectively.
NL Central
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NL Central
| Chicago Cubs | 90 percent | 1 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 47 percent | 9 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 27 percent | 17 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1 percent | 27 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1 percent | 28 |
Overview
No one is foolish enough to call a team a 100 percent lock to reach the postseason in February.
A 90 percent chance for the Chicago Cubs is as close as it's going to get.
It's hard to find a hole on the defending champs without nitpicking. The bullpen would be more balanced with another left-hander, the No. 5 starter spot is in a bit of flux and the lineup will have a different feel as Kyle Schwarber essentially replaces Dexter Fowler.
Another 100-win season seems well within reach, though, after they won the division title by a whopping 17.5 games a year ago.
The St. Louis Cardinals have missed the postseason in back-to-back years just once since 1999, and they look like an improved club over the one that fell a single game short of earning a wild-card spot last year.
The addition of Fowler changes the entire complexion of the lineup, and the bullpen should be more stable from the get-go after Trevor Rosenthal struggled early last season. While the rotation lost a valuable weapon in Alex Reyes to Tommy John surgery, the Cards welcome back Lance Lynn.
The Cubs are still the heavy favorites, leaving the Cardinals to perhaps rely on a wild-card berth.
The Pittsburgh Pirates saw their win total plummet from 98 to 78 last season. They'll count on an inexperienced starting rotation behind ace Gerrit Cole and Ivan Nova, as they look to rebound.
Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow have tremendous potential, and Pittsburgh could climb right back into the thick of things in the NL if they take a step forward.
That's a lot riding on a pair of young starters with 22 combined MLB starts, though. The Pirates look more like fringe contenders at this point.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds finished 30.5 and 35.5 games out of first place last season, respectively, and they're not any closer to contending in the early stages of rebuilding.
Success won't be judged by wins and losses for either team for the next few seasons as they focus on developing young talent.
NL West
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NL West
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 61 percent | 6 |
| San Francisco Giants | 59 percent | 8 |
| Colorado Rockies | 28 percent | 15 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 23 percent | 20 |
| San Diego Padres | 1 percent | 30 |
Overview
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have claimed eight of the past nine NL West titles, and there's a good chance one of them will add to that total in 2017.
With the addition of Logan Forsythe at second base, a full season of Rich Hill and a healthy stable of starting pitchers behind him and ace Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers look like an improved team on paper.
There are still questions about the depth of the bullpen and who will man the corner outfield spots, but overall, they have the talent to make it five straight division titles.
Meanwhile, the Giants addressed their one glaring hole with the addition of closer Mark Melancon to anchor the bullpen. It's a new-look relief corps, but guys like Derek Law, Hunter Strickland and Will Smith all have late-inning stuff, and the pen now looks like a potential strength.
A healthy season from Hunter Pence could also go a long way after he played just 106 games a year ago.
While those two teams still look like the top dogs, the NL West might be home to the two most intriguing dark-horse teams in the NL in the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Rockies will once again have as much offensive firepower as any team in baseball, but for the first time in years, they may also have the pitching to back it up.
Jon Gray looks like an ace in the making, while Chad Bettis, Tyler Anderson and Tyler Chatwood all posted an ERA+ north of 100 last year. The bullpen should also be improved with the additions of Mike Dunn and Greg Holland along with a healthy Adam Ottavino.
At the very least, the team's first winning season since 2010 looks to be within reach.
As for the Diamondbacks, they fell flat last season amid lofty expectations following the additions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller.
There's reason for hope, though. A.J. Pollock and David Peralta will both be back healthy, and the trio of Greinke, Robbie Ray and newcomer Taijuan Walker atop the rotation could be dynamic.
The bullpen still looks like a major question mark with far too many eggs placed in the Fernando Rodney basket, but the D-backs are nowhere near as bad as the team we saw a year ago.
The San Diego Padres will open the season with a starting rotation of Jered Weaver, Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Cahill, Clayton Richard and Christian Friedrich.
Enough said.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.
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