Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers, as one might imagine, own the recent rivalry with the Cleveland Browns, winning seven of the last eight meetings straight up and going 6-2 against the spread, including a win/cover five weeks ago. But circumstances might mute that trend when the Steelers meet the Browns on Sunday at Heinz Field.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as 11-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 38.7-3.5, Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland avoided everlasting infamy last week, beating San Diego 20-17 for its first victory of the season. The Browns spotted the Chargers the game's first touchdown, then used a 20-3 run to take a lead and survived a San Diego field-goal attempt at the buzzer that would have forced overtime.

On the day, Cleveland outrushed the Chargers, 124-34; held a 32-28 edge in time of possession; and didn't commit a turnover. Along the way, quarterback Robert Griffin III threw for 164 yards and ran for 42 more yards.

The Browns lost to Pittsburgh one month ago, 24-9, but they had the spread pushed as eight-point underdogs until giving up a touchdown on a fumble recovery in the end zone with just under four minutes to play.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh is on a six-game winning streak and just clinched another AFC North title after coming from behind to beat Baltimore last week, 31-27. The Steelers trailed the Ravens 20-10 early in the fourth quarter, and 27-24 with just over a minute to go, but they drove 75 yards to a game-winning Antonio Brown touchdown with just nine seconds left on the clock.

On the night, Pittsburgh edged Baltimore in total yardage, 406-368, and rushing, 127-122. So the Steelers have now outgained each of their last nine opponents and outrushed each of their last six foes. They're also 5-1 ATS over their last six games.

Smart pick

This could be one of the uglier games of this NFL season. Pittsburgh is already locked in as the AFC's No. 3 seed in the playoffs and will rest many starters. Meanwhile, 1-14 Cleveland isn't sure who's going to play quarterback. The Browns might want this one more, while the Steelers are just hoping nobody gets hurt. Ultimately, this is probably a good game for bettors to pass on.

Betting trends

The Browns are 0-12 SU in their last 12 games on the road against the Steelers.

The total has gone under in 14 of the Steelers' last 19 games.

The Browns are 0-10 SU and ATS in their last 10 games against their division.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.