Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

In an AFC South matchup between two teams that were supposed to contend for the division title this season, the Indianapolis Colts (7-8) will simply attempt to finish at .500 when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) as solid home favorites.

The Colts and Jaguars were both disappointing for different reasons, and each of them will have some serious issues to address in the offseason.

Point spread: The Colts opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.8-13.6 Colts (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jaguars came together last week without fired head coach Gus Bradley and routed the Tennessee Titans 38-17 for their biggest win of the year. Their previous two wins in the first six weeks of the season were decided by a combined four points, and they have covered the spread in the past three meetings with Indianapolis, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Andrew Luck's lack of support around him has been the main problem in Indy, and his massive contract will keep that a major issue moving forward. But the Colts still appear to be in better shape than Jacksonville, as their four more wins would attest.

Frank Gore has an opportunity to become the oldest running back to rush for 1,000 yards since 1984 as well, something the 33-year-old should be able to accomplish and help the team begin the new year on a positive note. Gore and Indy should run over the Jags.

Smart pick

When you have two underachieving teams like this squaring off against each other, it's hard to pick the lesser of two evils in this situation. For that reason, the total is a more worthy play. This will not be a shootout like the first meeting (a 30-27 Jaguars victory in Week 4), with Gore likely getting a lot of carries for Indianapolis in what could end up being his final game.

The under is 8-3 in the previous 11 games in this series and also 13-5 for the Colts in their last 18 games as favorites overall. Watch for a low-scoring affair that stays under again.

Betting trends

The Jaguars are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against the Colts.

The total has gone under in eight of the Jaguars' last 11 games against the Colts.

The Jaguars are 2-22 SU in their last 24 games on the road.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.