Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) will try to put themselves into position to win the AFC West title and earn a first-round bye in the playoffs when they visit the San Diego Chargers (5-10) as solid road favorites Sunday.

The Chiefs suddenly have a much better chance to overtake the Oakland Raiders for the division crown in Week 17 after Oakland quarterback Derek Carr suffered a broken leg last Sunday in a 33-25 win over the Indianapolis Colts.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.2-22.0 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City has faced San Diego in the regular-season finale two of the previous three years and covered the spread both times. The Chiefs have a lot on the line here and will be motivated to win and cover the spread to make sure they have a shot at the division title.

The Raiders will be visiting the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos at the same time as small road underdogs with backup Matt McGloin under center, giving Kansas City an excellent chance to steal the AFC West from them.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers have gone 11-4 against the spread after losing the previous game in a matchup, and they have also won eight of their last 10 games played in Week 17 over the past decade.

While it may seem tough to trust San Diego in this spot, the team is focused on snapping a four-game losing streak, and running back Melvin Gordon is hoping to return in an effort to go for his first 1,000-yard season, per the San Diego Union-Tribune's Michael Gehlken. Gordon has been dealing with hip and knee injuries that have caused him to miss the last two games, and his presence would be a big boost to the offense.

Smart pick

This is a tricky game considering the circumstances, making the total more appealing than the side. Four of the past five meetings have gone under the total, as have eight of the previous 11 overall for the Chiefs.

The last matchup between the teams came in the season opener, with Kansas City winning 33-27 in overtime after overcoming a 17-point deficit. This will be much more of an offensive struggle with the total going under again at sports betting sites.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in four of the Chiefs' last five games against the Chargers.

The total has gone under in eight of the Chiefs' last 11 games.

The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS win.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.