New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (13-2) have made it a mission to finish this regular season unlike last year's and will visit the Miami Dolphins (10-5) as nearly double-digit road favorites on Sunday. The Patriots lost their last two games at the end of the 2015 regular season, and that ultimately cost them home-field advantage against the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as six-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.0-20.4 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England avenged two losses to Denver last year by winning 16-3 at Mile High two weeks ago and then followed that up with a 41-3 rout of the New York Jets last Sunday as massive 17-point home chalk.

Nobody should question this team's motivation at this point, needing just one win or a loss by the Oakland Raiders later in the day to clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Patriots will work hard and take care of their own business so they do not need to worry about anyone else helping them.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins are obviously in a much different position than New England, although they too have already clinched a playoff berth. Regardless, the Dolphins would love nothing more than to upset the Patriots in the regular-season finale to plant some doubt in their minds if the teams meet again in the playoffs.

Miami is also on a 9-1 straight up and 8-1-1 against the spread run, so few teams are hotter right now.

Smart pick

New England will undoubtedly want to win this game, but covering the spread is another story. This looks to be too many points, especially considering how well the Dolphins have played at home lately.

The Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Miami versus teams with winning records, while the Patriots lost there 20-10 in last year's regular-season finale in a similar spot as 10-point road favorites. Take the home underdogs again here at online betting sites.

Betting trends

The Patriots are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

The total has gone over in the Dolphins' last five games as underdogs.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark.

All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.