NFL Picks Week 17: Advice on Final Regular-Season Vegas Odds and Spreads

The New England Patriots will be playing for the top seed in the AFC playoffs when they take on the Miami Dolphins in Week 17. The Dolphins, already a playoff team, seem to have little at stake.

The Dolphins are the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoffs at this point, but they do have a slight chance to move up to No. 5. If they can beat the Patriots at home—something they did a year ago in the regular-season finale—and the Kansas City Chiefs lose their last game on the road against the San Diego Chargers, they would move up to the No. 5 seed.

The difference there is that the fifth seed would get to play the AFC South champion Houston Texans (9-6), while the sixth seed would have to play the explosive Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), winners of six games in a row and owners of one of the most dangerous offensive attacks in the game. Houston is locked into the fourth seed, and Pittsburgh can't move from the No. 3 seed.

So don't say Miami has nothing to play for, which is the way the oddsmakers have looked at this game against New England. There's no doubt that the Patriots have played with purpose all season, leading to a brilliant 13-2 record. But the Dolphins are 10-5 after starting the season with a 1-4 record.

New England opened as a six-point favorite, according to OddsShark.

Game	Point spread	Prediction
Chicago at Minnesota	Minnesota (-5.5)	Chicago
Houston at Tennessee	Tennessee (-3)	Houston
Carolina at Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay (-6)	Tampa Bay
Dallas at Philadelphia	No line	Dallas
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets	Buffalo (-6)	Buffalo
New England at Miami	New England (-10)	Miami
Green Bay at Detroit	No line	Detroit
Baltimore at Cincinnati	Cincinnati (-2.5)	Cincinnati
N.Y. Giants at Washington	Washington (-7.5)	N.Y. Giants
Cleveland at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh (-7)	Pittsburgh
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	Indianapolis (-4.5)	Indianapolis
New Orleans at Atlanta	Atlanta (-6.5)	Atlanta
Seattle at San Francisco	Seattle (-9.5)	Seattle
Kansas City at San Diego	Kansas City (-4.5)	San Diego
Arizona at Los Angeles	Arizona (-6)	Arizona
Oakland at Denver	Denver (-2)	Denver

The Dolphins will try to beat the Patriots with backup quarterback Matt Moore under center, as Ryan Tannehill is out with a knee injury. It seems like a long shot, but the Dolphins have the talent to keep this game close.

Miami will try to attack the Patriots with running back Jay Ajayi, who has run for 1,213 yards and has had three 200-yard rushing games this season. He has the power to get past the point of attack and the speed to go long once he gets to the second level.

The Dolphins also have a big-play receiver in Jarvis Landry, who has caught 85 passes for 1,060 yards. While he has just three touchdowns, he does have 16 receptions of 20 yards or more.

The Patriots are a dangerous team with Tom Brady, LeGarrette Blount, Julian Edelman and an excellent supporting cast.

The Patriots have lost in their last three trips to Miami, and they will not have an easy game here. The Dolphins will not only cover the spread, but they will also take the game on a last-second field goal.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

The Oakland Raiders will have everything to play for as they take the field in Denver. If they can beat the Broncos, they will win the AFC West title and become the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs—assuming the Dolphins beat the Patriots.

The problem for the Raiders will be finding a way to win at Sports Authority Field without starting quarterback Derek Carr, who broke his fibula against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16.

Even though the Broncos have struggled in recent weeks and will miss the playoffs, it would have been hard enough to beat them with Carr in the lineup. Backup Matt McGloin is relatively untested, and he will have to face a nasty Broncos defense and listen to a disruptive Denver crowd.

The Raiders opened as 3.5-point underdogs, according to OddsShark, and the oddsmakers are on the right track. The Broncos may not be a playoff team, but last year's Super Bowl champions have immense pride. They are not about to let the Raiders celebrate on their field.

Look for Trevor Siemian to play a calm and controlled game at quarterback for the Broncos. He will take what the 27th-ranked Oakland defense will give him, and that should be plenty.

Meanwhile, the Denver defense will get its act together after getting punished by the Chiefs in Week 16. Linebacker Von Miller will push his teammates, and the team will close out the regular season with a big win.

Look for Denver to win this game by at least a touchdown.

Ron Schwane/Associated Press

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers

The Chiefs know that they have to win their regular-season finale against the San Diego Chargers if they are going to have a chance at winning the AFC West.

Finishing in that position would give them the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, and that's a more advantageous position than the No. 5 seed, which is where they stand heading into Week 17.

The Chargers are coming into the regular-season finale after losing to the previously winless Cleveland Browns. That should be motivation enough for this team to come home and try to make amends.

There's one other factor in play here. This could be the Chargers' last game at Qualcomm Stadium, as the team could be heading to Los Angeles in the future.

That was also the case last year, but the Chargers decided to stay one more year in San Diego in the hopes of securing a new stadium in their longtime home. That has not happened yet.

Philip Rivers has a lot of pride, and he inspired his team to win its home finale last year (in Week 15 against Miami). Look for history to repeat itself.

The Chargers nearly beat the Chiefs in Week 1, and Kansas City needed a late rally to win that game at home. It may look at San Diego's loss at Cleveland and think the Chargers have already started their offseason.

The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to OddsShark, but the Chargers will cover the spread and win the game.