Week 16 NFL Picks: Tips for Vegas Odds and Over/Under Score Predictions

If the Week 16 opener on Thursday Night Football is any indication, bettors are in for a rough time.

The Philadelphia Eagles pulled off an upset as the underdog at home, besting the New York Giants 24-19, rocking the NFC playoff picture and ruining what looked like one of the easier lines of the week. 

Alas, those who rolled with the underdog aren't complaining. It's yet another example of there being no exact science to making picks this late in the season, when teams with ruined campaigns want to play the spoiler.

Before Saturday's action gets underway and bleeds into Sunday, here's a full look at a holiday odds guide.

NFL Week 16 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Minnesota at Green Bay	GB -7	43	GB 24-23
Tennessee at Jacksonville	TEN -5.5	44	TEN 30-23
Washington at Chicago	WAS -3	47	CHI 24-20
Miami at Buffalo	BUF -4.5	42	MIA 23-20
San Diego at Cleveland	SD -6	44	CLE 24-14
Atlanta at Carolina	ATL -3	53	ATL 33-30
NY Jets at New England	NE -17	44	NE 27-17
Indianapolis at Oakland	OAK -4	53	OAK 34-30
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	NO -3	52.5	TB 27-23
Arizona at Seattle	SEA -8	43.5	SEA 30-20
San Francisco at Los Angeles	LA -4.5	40	LA 17-14
Cincinnati at Houston	HOU -1	41	HOU 24-20
Baltimore at Pittsburgh	PIT -6	44	PIT 21-20
Denver at Kansas City	KC -4	37.5	KC 27-24
Detroit at Dallas (MNF)	DAL -7	43	DAL 28-24

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-6)

The Baltimore Ravens have defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in four consecutive meetings. 

As the odds show, though, a fifth doesn't seem likely.

The Ravens upended the Steelers in Week 9 by a score of 21-14. Since, the Steelers have gone 5-1, with the wins all coming in a row. The loss against the Ravens was a defensive-minded affair in which Baltimore wideout Mike Wallace was the anomaly, cashing in revenge on his former team with four catches for 124 yards and a score.

"We lost the first game," Steelers offensive lineman Marcus Gilbert said, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com). "This game is going to be ours, it's at our field. I'm excited, man. This is why we play the game of football."

He's not wrong. Pittsburgh has taken care of business, holding opponents to 20 points or less in each of the five wins. Baltimore has been more erratic, going 4-2 over the same stretch, holding teams such as Cincinnati to 14 points but letting New England drop 30.

Given Baltimore's lack of a running game (the team averages 3.9 yards), Pittsburgh can focus on making sure Baltimore's deep threats don't slip loose behind coverage. In a cold game surely dominated by ground games, bettors rolling with Le'Veon Bell over Baltimore's ground game make sense.

Prediction: Steelers 21-20

Denver at Kansas City (-4)

Bettors shouldn't have any qualms about taking the Kansas City Chiefs over the Denver Broncos in Week 16. 

The Chiefs took a two-point loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 15, but it's a small blip considering the Chiefs have gone 8-2 over their last 10. Spencer Ware (859 yards, three scores) continues to function as a strong workhorse, and the defense allows just 19.6 points per game while tallying 15 interceptions and 28 sacks.

One doesn't have to ask about the team's playoff mindset going into the game, as captured by the Chiefs' official Twitter account:

It's hard to feel as confident about the Broncos, a team on a two-game skid that could be longer were it not for a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13.

Denver's offense simply hasn't produced, no matter who lines up under center, scoring a total of 13 points over the prior two losses. That said, Denver did drop 27 points in a 30-27 overtime loss to Kansas City back in Week 12, in large part thanks to three touchdowns by quarterback Trevor Siemian—though he's thrown one touchdown and one interception over two games since.

The Chiefs look like a team hitting a peak at the right time ahead of the playoffs, whereas the Broncos look like one crumbling and unable to keep pace with some of the best teams in the league.

This disparity will only find itself strengthened by the fact the rematch between these two goes down in Kansas City, one of the best home-field advantages in the league.

Prediction: Chiefs 27-24

Detroit at Dallas (-7)

A clash between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football might be the best game of the year. 

Detroit doesn't enter as much of an underdog, no matter what the odds suggest. Matthew Stafford has thrown for 22 touchdowns against eight interceptions this year, while leading clutch drives late to win games.

In fact, Detroit doesn't have a rusher with more than 92 carries, yet Stafford continues to excel while going to work with wideouts Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, who have combined for seven touchdowns. The defense is really where Detroit makes its money, holding opponents to 20.4 points on average.

It's hard to say how motivated to play the Cowboys will be, anyway. The aforementioned upset the Eagles pulled off against the Giants helped Dallas secure the No. 1 seed and the NFC East.

With that in hand, Dallas might ease off the gas with rookies Dak Prescott (3,418 yards, 20 touchdowns, four interceptions) and Ezekiel Elliott (1,551 yards, 13 touchdowns).

Even if Dallas does ease back, it wouldn't skew the outcome too much. The defense still surrenders just 18.4 points per game and deciding to yank Prescott from the game at some point would put the offense in the hands of a veteran like Tony Romo.

Given the fact this one goes down in Dallas, it's best to take the Cowboys, though treating the spread like a dangerous tightrope is best.

Prediction: Cowboys 28-24 

Odds according to OddsShark. Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.