Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans (8-6) will take the AFC South title by winning their last two games, starting with Saturday night's matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals (5-8-1).

However, oddsmakers do not have much faith in the Texans despite their better record and motivation to win the division down the stretch, as they are just small home favorites against the Bengals.

Point spread: The Texans opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.6-17.3, Texans (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Houston quarterback Tom Savage will be making his first NFL start in a big spot, which is reason enough to back Cincinnati here. Not to mention that the Bengals would love nothing more than to upset the team that knocked them out of the playoffs in 2011 and 2012.

Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton and some of his teammates remember those losses and should be out for revenge as they also try to end an 11-game winless streak versus teams with winning records.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans have won six of the past seven meetings with the Bengals and have covered the spread in seven of the last eight. They are also 6-1 straight up at home, and Savage cannot play much worse than former starter Brock Osweiler, whose struggles have been puzzling in his first year with the team.

A more conservative offensive game plan that focuses on running the ball with Lamar Miller and throwing some additional passes to wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins would seem to help as well. The talent is there, which is why the team is tied for first in its division.

Smart pick

The most troubling betting trend going against Houston is its 2-19-1 ATS mark in its previous 22 prime-time appearances. That alone trumps just about everything else and should make bettors want to back Cincinnati.

The Bengals showed last week how competitive they can be despite having nothing left to play for this season; they just could not close the deal against a good Pittsburgh Steelers team. The Texans are not the Steelers, so look for Cincinnati to finish better and pull off the small road upset on the Vegas lines.

Betting trends

The Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against the Texans.

The total has gone under in the Bengals' last three games against the Texans.

The Texans are 2-19-1 ATS in their last 22 games at night.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.