Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) and New Orleans Saints (6-8) will square off against each other for the second time in three weeks when they meet at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in a key NFC South matchup on Saturday.

The Buccaneers won the first meeting 16-11 as two-point home favorites two weeks ago and will be small road underdogs this time around.

Point spread: The Saints opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 52.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.4-22.0, Saints (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Tampa Bay used its stifling defense to hold New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees without a touchdown pass and force him into three interceptions in the team's fifth straight win.

Last week, the Bucs fell short of upsetting the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys in a 26-20 road loss on Sunday night, but they did manage to cover the spread as 6.5-point underdogs. Despite seeing their five-game winning streak snapped at Dallas, they have still covered six in a row, along with four of five versus the Saints.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans got back on track in a big way last week in a 48-41 win over the Arizona Cardinals as a three-point road underdog. The Saints had lost their previous two games both straight up and against the spread, including that setback at Tampa Bay.

Brees continues to lead the league in passing yards and threw four touchdown passes against the Cardinals after totaling none during the team's skid. Another performance like that from Brees is what New Orleans needs.

Smart pick

The Saints have gone an impressive 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 at home after playing consecutive road games. This is their home finale before visiting the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons in Week 17.

While the Bucs look like a promising young team under first-year head coach Dirk Koetter, a regular-season sweep of New Orleans seems unlikely, which is just another reason to back the home team here. Tampa has also lost eight of the past 10 meetings SU, and the small point spread on the Vegas lines looks like a gift for those searching for one more excuse to take the Saints.

Betting trends

The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Saints.

The total has gone under in 13 of the Buccaneers' last 16 games against the Saints.

The Saints are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games as favorites.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.