Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons (9-5) can move one step closer to winning the NFC South title with a victory Saturday against the Carolina Panthers (6-8) as small road favorites.

The Falcons are battling the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the division crown and can also prevent the defending NFC South champion Panthers from finishing with a winning record by sweeping the season series.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 53 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.6-23.5, Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta won the first meeting 48-33 as a three-point home underdog back in Week 4, as quarterback Matt Ryan threw for a franchise-record 503 yards, and wide receiver Julio Jones hauled in 12 catches for a franchise-record 300 yards.

Needless to say, the Falcons were able to attack Carolina's defense through the air sans former cornerback Josh Norman patrolling the secondary. They are also 6-2 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in their last eight road games.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers showed why they are still a dangerous team in upsetting the Washington Redskins 26-15 as seven-point road dogs in last week's Monday night matchup. There's a reason they have found a way to win the division three years in a row, although this season, that is impossible based on their current record.

Carolina will play the role of spoiler down the stretch, though, and the team has gone 6-2 SU and ATS in its previous eight home games versus teams with winning records.

Smart pick

Jones has missed the last two games for Atlanta due to a toe injury, and his status is worth watching up until kickoff. The 27-year-old still leads the NFL in receiving yards despite playing in 12 games, and he should be in the conversation to win league MVP honors.

Without him, the Falcons have not missed a beat in routs of the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers, but those teams have combined to win fewer games than the Panthers. Look for Carolina to continue its momentum by winning its third consecutive game in a minor upset as a small home dog for those that gamble online.

Betting trends

The Falcons are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four games on the road against the Panthers.

The total has gone over in nine of the Panthers' last 11 games on Saturday.

The Falcons are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.