NFL Predictions Week 16: Top Underdog Picks, Vegas Odds and Score Predictions

The dawn of Week 16 means an uneven slate of games in terms of matchups you should care about. 

The difference between the haves and have-nots is as plain as possible, and while some teams will be fighting for the playoffs and seeding, others are just looking to drag what's left of their team across the finish line. 

That means there's more than one line that can be taken advantage of this week. Oddsmakers take a lot of things into consideration, but it's hard to tell just how much motivation teams like the Cleveland Browns and San Diego Chargers will have coming into the penultimate week of the regular season. 

Here's a look at the complete slate along with the latest odds from OddsShark and a look at some of the more intriguing lines from the week. 

Game	Line	Pick ATS	Over/Under Pick
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles	NYG (-2.5)	NYG	Over 41.5
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers	GB (-6.5)	GB	Over 43
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars	TEN (-5)	TEN	Over 44
Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears	WAS (-3.5)	WAS	Under 47
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills	BUF (-3.5)	BUF	Over 42
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers	ATL (-2.5)	CAR	Under 53
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns	SD (-6)	CLE	Over 43.5
New York Jets at New England Patriots	NE (-16.5)	NE	Under 43.5
Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders	OAK (-3.5)	OAK	Over 53
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints	NO (-3)	NO	Under 52.5
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-8)	ARI	Over 43.5
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams	LA (-3.5)	LAR	Under 40
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans	HOU (-1)	HOU	Over 41
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT (-5)	PIT	Under 44
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs	KC (-3.5)	KC	Under 38
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys	DAL (-7)	DAL	Over 43

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders

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The Oakland Raiders have been one of the best teams in the AFC all year and are at home on Saturday, yet they are only favored by four points against a Colts team that is 7-7 on the season. 

So why the close line?

The narratives behind this line have to do with motivation and injuries. First, the Colts are fighting for their season. If they win, they stay in the playoff race in the AFC South. A loss all but does them in. 

Then there's Derek Carr's injury. The quarterback's injured pinky didn't allow him to take snaps from under center last week, and that can hamstring the offense. NBC analyst Tony Dungy offered some insight into the potential consequences of not being able to go under center:

To use these narratives to pick the Colts is a bit disingenuous, though. It ignores the fact that the Raiders have just as much motivation to improve their playoff stock. Oakland has locked up a spot in the postseason, but a first-round bye is still in its sights and would be a huge help in getting Carr back to top form when it counts. 

Then there's the fact that Carr may be closer to full health than is being lead on. According to the San Francisco Chronicle's Vic Tafur, the quarterback has taken snaps under center in practice:

Plainly stated, the Raiders are a better football team than the Colts. Oakland led the league with seven Pro Bowl selections and comes into this game ranked seventh in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, while the Colts check in at 24th. 

There's no need to overthink this. Taking the more talented team at home is the right call. 

Prediction: Raiders 35, Colts 24 

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

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Don't call it a comeback—because it probably won't happen—but the Carolina Panthers could still conceivably make the playoffs. 

Last week's upset win over the Washington Redskins gives them a shot to make the postseason field, although they will admittedly need a ton of help. Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Washington have to lose out, while Minnesota and New Orleans need to win this week and lose in Week 17—and, of course, the Panthers have to win out. 

With the Atlanta Falcons rolling into town, that might seem like the most difficult part of aforementioned scenario. 

However, the Panthers have shown some signs of life. Carolina finishing strong shouldn't be a surprise. With Cam Newton at the helm they've been excellent at the end of the year, as ESPN Stats & Info noted:

Yes, the Panthers have struggled, but they're finally getting healthy. The passing defense has been the problem all season, but cornerback Daryl Worley and safety Kurt Coleman were among the highest-graded defenders in the team's win over Washington, per Pro Football Focus, and both have missed time this year with injuries. 

The defense appears to have turned the corner in recent weeks. They're second in the NFL in sacks while holding teams to under 100 yards rushing in seven of their last nine games. 

Defensive coordinator Sean McDermott has praised the defensive efforts after the rocky start. 

"It’s been fun to watch them come together," McDermott said, per Jourdan Rodrigue of the Charlotte Observer. "They’ve got heart, they’ve got character. I see us taking another step. We have a certain vision in the defensive room and we’re climbing toward that vision. There are peaks and valleys, but you try and keep that vision in front of you."

With a much-improved defense and an outside shot at sneaking into the playoffs, the Panthers are primed to pull off their second upset in two weeks. 

Prediction: Panthers 21, Falcons 17 

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

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This is another spread that just doesn't make much sense on paper. 

Not only are the Texans at home, but they appear to be trending in the opposite direction of their opponent. 

The Bengals are a team that appears to be lost. After wins over the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns in back-to-back weeks to offer some hope, they blew a 20-6 lead to lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers and move to 5-8-1 on the year. With no chance of making the playoffs and a miserable loss in the rearview, motivation might be hard to come by. 

The Texans, however, are in the midst of a tight race and just got a shot in the arm with Tom Savage stepping in at quarterback to replace Brock Osweiler. Savage was strong last week in leading a comeback win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Chris Simms of Bleacher Report thinks the quarterback could shake up the entire playoffs:

The Texans roll into this week at 8-6 and hold the tiebreaker over the 8-6 Tennessee Titans for the AFC South lead. With an opportunity to maintain or expand that lead with a victory at home, it's hard to see them losing this game, especially with Savage stepping in at quarterback. 

Prediction: Texans 28, Bengals 20