Indianapolis Colts vs. Oakland Raiders Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts (7-7) are fighting for their playoff lives and will try to earn another key victory when they visit the AFC West-leading Oakland Raiders (11-3) on Saturday as small road underdogs. The Colts trail both the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans by one game in the AFC South race, and they have won four straight road games both straight up and against the spread.

Point spread: The Raiders opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 52.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.0-20.5 Raiders (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Colts can cover the spread

For whatever reason, Indianapolis has played much better away from home lately, and Oakland has not been very good at the Coliseum recently. The Raiders are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and they have been slightly better on the road at 6-1 SU.

The Colts have also outscored their previous two opponents on the road by a remarkable 75-16 margin, including a mind-boggling 34-6 rout of the Minnesota Vikings last week as five-point underdogs.

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

While Oakland has already clinched its first postseason appearance since 2002, the team is still gunning for the AFC West title and a first-round bye. The Raiders currently sit one game ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs for the division lead and need to stay in that position because they lost both meetings.

The Chiefs host the Denver Broncos on Christmas and could face a must-win to stay alive if Oakland earns a victory here. Regardless, the Raiders are 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings and the better team.

Smart pick

Indy is a difficult team to figure out right now, and last week's big win did not help at all because the Texans and Titans both rallied for late victories to remain tied for the division lead. The Colts have little chance to make the playoffs without winning the AFC South, and they are just 1-6 SU in their previous seven games following a victory.

Look for Oakland to continue its momentum by winning for the eighth time in nine games and covering on the NFL lines in the process, taking another step toward the AFC West crown.

Betting trends

The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the Raiders.

The total has gone under in four of the Colts' last five games against the Raiders.

The Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games at home.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.