Week 15 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Matchups to Exploit and Avoid on Schedule
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson provided a shining example as to how important matchups are in Week 15 during fantasy playoff season.
Wilson totaled a game-high 20 points in a Thursday showdown with the Los Angeles Rams. Some might have feared the matchup given Los Angeles' defense, but a quick look at the numbers—the defense had allowed eight touchdowns over its prior three games—revealed it was one of the best matchups of the week.
The task now is simple: analyze the rest and come up with a plan for success. Let's do so below after a look at matchup comparisons.
Quarterback
| Aaron Rodgers (at CHI) vs. Drew Brees (at ARI) | Aaron Rodgers |
| Matt Ryan (vs. SF) vs. Marcus Mariota (at KC) | Matt Ryan |
| Kirk Cousins (vs. CAR) vs. Andrew Luck (at MIN) | Kirk Cousins |
| Derek Carr (at SD) vs. Dak Prescott (vs. TB) | Derek Carr |
| Matthew Stafford (at NYG) vs. Ben Roethlisberger (at CIN) | Ben Roethlisberger |
Matchup to Exploit: Cam Newton, CAR (at WAS)
It's time for owners to trust Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton.
Newton has only scored 12 and 11 points over his last two outings and recently had an MRI come back clean.
The versatile Newton sits in a great matchup against the Washington Redskins in Week 15, seeing as it is a defense permitting the eighth-most points to quarterbacks on average. The unit has allowed three passing touchdowns in two of its past four outings.
Newton provides an even bigger challenge because of his ability as a runner, which owners should love.
Matchup to Avoid: Andrew Luck, IND (at MIN)
Tough as it may be, it's hard to get behind Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck in Week 15.
Luck, coming off a 16-point showing, has to deal with the quarterback purgatory known as the Minnesota Vikings. Though a disappointing team as of late, the Vikings still permit the third-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks.
In fact, the Vikings haven't surrendered multiple passing touchdowns in a game since Week 11, and no quarterback has hit 20 points against the unit.
Luck is great, but he'll have some problems on the road in this one.
Running Back
| David Johnson (vs. NO) vs. DeMarco Murray (at KC) | David Johnson |
| Ezekiel Elliott (vs. TB) vs. LeSean McCoy (vs. CLE) | LeSean McCoy |
| LeGarrette Blount (at DEN) vs. Devonta Freeman (vs. SF) | LeGarrette Blount |
| Le'Veon Bell (at CIN) vs. Jordan Howard (vs. GB) | Le'Veon Bell |
| Latavius Murray (at SD) vs. Jay Ajayi (at NYJ) | Jay Ajayi |
Matchup to Exploit: Carlos Hyde, SF (at ATL)
Feel free to ride the unstoppable-looking train that is San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde.
Hyde dropped 25 points in Week 14, bullying a once-proud New York Jets defense and hitting at least 20 for the third time this season.
A fourth doesn't seem so outlandish given a game against the Atlanta Falcons, the team coughing up the third-most points to backs on average.
On one hand, most teams fall behind against the Falcons and favor the pass. On the other, seven opposing backfields have still hit 18 or more points against the unit, something Hyde could well do on his own.
Matchup to Avoid: Doug Martin, TB (at DAL)
On the other end of the spectrum, now is a good time to jump off the Doug Martin train.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' lead back has a touchdown in two consecutive games and trips to double digits in four of his last five outings. Great, but Martin's sledding gets quite a bit tougher in Week 15 against the Dallas Cowboys.
Though it's hardly getting credit, thanks to a pair of offensive rookies, Dallas has an elite defense. It holds true in the fantasy realm too, with the unit only allowing the fourth-fewest points to backs on average.
Dallas has only coughed up five rushing touchdowns to backs this year, and two backfields have rushed for 100 yards. Those two factors say it all about Martin's outlook.
Wide Receiver
| Antonio Brown (at CIN) vs. Mike Evans (at DAL) | Antonio Brown |
| Odell Beckham Jr. (vs. DET) vs. Jordy Nelson (at CHI) | Odell Beckham Jr. |
| T.Y. Hilton (at MIN) vs. Davante Adams (at CHI) | Davante Adams |
| Amari Cooper (at SD) vs. Michael Thomas (at ARI) | Amari Cooper |
| Larry Fitzgerald (vs. NO) vs. Terrelle Pryor Sr. (at BUF) | Larry Fitzgerald |
Matchup to Exploit: Tyreek Hill, KC (vs. TEN)
It looks like the Tyreek Hill show will continue for owners in Week 15.
A breakout player for the Kansas City Chiefs, Hill has 15 or more points three times since Week 7, with outputs of 16 and 23 points coming in two of his last three.
The impressive streak will only continue against the Tennessee Titans, the team allowing the most points to wideouts on average. Opposing wideouts have scored six touchdowns on the unit over its last three outings alone.
A touchdown machine, owners can expect a score when it matters most.
Matchup to Avoid: Allen Robinson, JAC (at HOU)
Still owned in 94.9 percent of leagues, Allen Robinson has fully sunk with the Jacksonville Jaguars and won't return.
Robinson has four double-digit outings on the year, but over his last four games, he has mustered a total of 13 points. He's hardly scoring touchdowns, and an inept passing attack doesn't let him see the usage he needs.
Obviously, then, a game against the Houston Texans on the road is bad news. Houston only permits the fifth-most points to wideouts this year. And while it's true that Robinson dropped 18 points on the Texans in Week 10, the fact he has only caught 57 of 119 targets is bad news.
If Robinson were more reliable, owners could trot him out with confidence based on his last game against Houston, but that simply isn't the case.
Tight End
| Delanie Walker (at KC) vs. Greg Olsen (at WAS) | Delanie Walker |
| Jason Witten (vs. TB) vs. Travis Kelce (vs. TEN) | Travis Kelce |
| Jordan Reed (vs. CAR) vs. Cameron Brate (at DAL) | Jordan Reed |
| Kyle Rudolph (vs. IND) vs. Coby Fleener (at ARI) | Kyle Rudolph |
| Hunter Henry (vs. OAK) vs. Martellus Bennett (at DEN) | Hunter Henry |
Matchup to Exploit: Ladarius Green, PIT (at CIN)
Now is a great time for owners to jump all over Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Ladarius Green.
Green put up a dud in Week 14, yes (he posted 17 the week prior), but it shouldn't camouflage the fact he has a great Week 15 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Those Bengals are allowing the fourth-most points to tight ends on average this year, and if there is one player who knows how to exploit this, it's Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
A big part of the Steelers attack, Green can expect a healthy dose of targets and more than a few in scoring position.
Matchup to Avoid: Zach Ertz, PHI (at BAL)
Sooner or later, Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz will cool.
The veteran has 13 and 11 points over his last two outings, but keep in mind those were his first trips to double digits on the year—and fostered by good matchups.
Week 15 is anything but. Ertz has to deal with the Baltimore Ravens, the team allowing the seventh-fewest points to the position. The Ravens have only surrendered three touchdowns and two double-digit outings to sets of tight ends this year.
In a game sure to feature more running than passing, owners shouldn't expect much from Ertz on the road in the cold.
All scoring info and statistics courtesy of ESPN.com standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats.
Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.
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