Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Over head coach Andy Reid's tenure at Kansas City, the Chiefs are a good bet, going 34-27 against the spread. But Kansas City doesn't blow foes out very often, and that shows in a 1-8 record ATS the last nine times it's been favored by five points or more. The Chiefs fall into that split for Sunday's showdown with up-and-coming Tennessee at Arrowhead Stadium.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as six-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.4-24.5 Titans (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Titans can cover the spread

The Titans ride a two-game winning streak into Kansas City, following their 13-10 victory over another AFC West outfit, the Denver Broncos, last week. Tennessee took a 7-0 lead on Denver seven minutes into the game on a DeMarco Murray touchdown run, led 13-0 at the half and held on from there for a key win and a cover as a two-point favorite.

On the day, the Titans outrushed the Broncos 180-18 and held a 32/28 edge in time of possession. So Tennessee has now outrushed each of its last four foes and nine of its last 10.

At 7-6 overall, Tennessee is tied for first place in the AFC South with Houston, although the Texans hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs own a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS, following their 21-13 victory/cover over Oakland last Thursday. Kansas City spotted the Raiders an early field goal, then scored three touchdowns in a nine-minute span of the second quarter, one on a 78-yard punt return by Tyreek Hill, to take control.

The Chiefs later allowed Oakland to pull within one score and drive inside the KC red zone in the final minutes, but a defensive stop secured the win and the cash as four-point favorites. On the evening, Kansas City outgained Oakland 323-244.

So since a 2-2 start to this season, the Chiefs have won eight of their last nine games. At 10-3 overall, Kansas City is tied with the Raiders for first place in the AFC West and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, thanks to two victories over Oakland.

Smart pick

Earlier this year Tennessee rallied to win a tough game at Detroit and then lost its next time out. Later the Titans put on a big performance in a rout of Green Bay and then followed that up with a lethargic defeat. This week's game is Tennessee's chance to show some maturity. Also, while the Titans are outrushing opponents this season by a 145-87 per-game average, Kansas City is losing the ground battle by a 123-96 margin. The smart money here takes Tennessee.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in five of the Titans' last six games against the Chiefs.

The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road against the Chiefs.

The Titans are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games in December.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.